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  • Tom Tom Feb 14, 2009 11:49 PM Flag

    Prospect expert back again this year

    I can give you the goods you need on virtually any prospect. Let you know whose overrated and whose primed for a breakout.

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    • What do you think of Dan Murphy?

    • It's not necessarily changing his ways but improving them. I mean Porcello should try to get better in all aspects while he is in the minors. Just because he is having more success with his slider right now doesn't mean he should stop trying to improve his curve.

    • I pick 10th out of 12 in a keeper league. What position should I focus on? Or should I trade my first pick for...My keepers are:
      C: Doumitt
      1B: Morneau
      2B: Pedroia
      SS: Rollins
      3B: Beltre
      OF: Sizemore, Braun, Ethier
      SP: Webb, Danks, Dempster, Vazquez
      RP: Paplebon, Woods

    • I read somewhere the pitch had regressed from what it was in high school and he relied more and more on his slider as he lost confidence in it. He would strike out more guys with improvements in it. But the problem is that he still pitched really well relying on on the slider. Why change something if it's working? If he had struggled through the season I could see them working hard to change him in the offseason. He'll get some extra work it but unless there is a lot of immediate improvement I can see it changing Porcello's pitch selection.

    • Tom, I'm hoping you can lend a depth chart/cheat sheet/big board for me. I don't expect you to go into any details with each player, but if you could rank them in order (how you see it) of ceiling, and then maybe give an ETA on each (in your opinion) that would be fantastic!

      I've already mostly developed my own opinions on these guys, but I would like to see your viewpoint. Perhaps we could compare afterwards.

      I'm looking for your expertise on the following 22 SP prospects...

      Chris Tillman
      Brian Matusz
      Wade Davis
      Carlos Carrasco
      Brett Cecil
      Madison Bumgarner
      Rick Porcello
      James McDonald
      Michael Bowden
      Jhoulys Chacin
      Jordan Walden
      Michael Inoa
      Jake Arrieta
      Johnathon Niese
      Phillippe Aumont
      Christian Friedrich
      Daniel Bard
      Derek Holland
      J.A. Happ (I realize he's a little older)
      Brad Mills
      Jarrod Parker
      Tim Alderson

      Huge thanks in advance!

    • Hahaha it is kind of stupid. Fair enough. Nothing wrong with a little debate. I just took Harper in the 20th round in my farm draft. I think he is a very valuable pick in that round. I really had nothing to lose with that pick so I might as well take someone who has the upside of a ARod, Griffey, or Upton.

      I saw your post earlier about Porcello and how you think he is overrated. I agree to that to a degree. I mean no doubt he is still a top pitching prospect in my book, but there are many other pitching prospects that are ranked behind him by most people that I would rather have like Bumgarner, Anderson, Cahill, Feliz, Hanson, Parker, and Strasburg. But i saw what you said about him not being a strikeout pitcher and you also said you read everything from BA. Well if that's true you would know that he was struggling with his curveball this past year. They said he overthrew it at times and therefore struggled to command it. BA also goes on and says that he should strike out more hitters once his curve full develops. Now don't get me wrong I don't think he will have more K's than IP, but he wont be one of those guys who has 200 IP in a season and has 100 K's. I can see him getting close to 170-180 a year. What do you think?

    • HS players with a projected 5 years to develop don't go in the first round of the draft. Some of them take that long, but a team doesn't spend a first round pick (and especially the first overall pick) on a guy who will not effect their club for 5 years. You have to remember the business side of the game, and that's something that one scout doesn't understand.

      Last I heard from Baseball America they projected him as a top 5 pick in his draft and said that he wasn't a consensus number 1 this far out. I generally don't pay attention to players that far away or that young because it takes too long for them to be relevant.

      Growth is more than just being big enough. His arms could grow to an awkward length messing up his swing or he could grow too tall or overbulk. There are plenty of factors that could affect him in a number of ways.

      And again this argument is stupid because of how far away he is.

    • I didn't say this year, i said last year. Strasburg is also an amazing talent and i really can't see anyone going in front of him.

      5 years of getting hurt? There have been players who came out of high school who were and are expected to be in the minors for 5 or more years. So i really don't see the difference there.

      I saw a scout on a video talking about Harper saying he would take him first hands down, so I assumed he wasn't the only one who thought that. Maybe i just found the one crazy out of the bunch. But then i found another scout who says he would definitely be a 1st round pick right now. So i think this guy is the real deal.

      Fully developed?!? The "kid" is 6-3 205 lbs! I think he is mature enough to judge.

    • I've never heard that and don't believe it. At best he reaches majors at 20 five years from now. A team would be stupid to take a player in the draft who has 5 years to get hurt before they will ever reach the majors.

      You might have heard the comparison where it says if he was an 18 year old with the talent they expect him to have as an 18 year old he would be taken first overall. But saying he would be taken first overall this year ahead of Steve Strausburg is just stupid.

      This whole argument is stupid, you can't accurately evaluate a player whose body has that many years of growth yet.

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