Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
Answer these 2 questions... Who is one player you just don't like and think he WILL bust and why? Who is one player that is going late or mid rounds and he really SHOULD be going higher and why?
Bust is Stacy. I'm sorry the guy isn't flashy at all and doesn't create anything. He isn't overly fast and the ONLY reason he did what he did last year is he got solo many carries... any guy that has games like this... 14 carries 25 yards, 15 carries 15 yards and 33 carries for 104 yards I don't want... his ypc was so bad and you are really counting on volume.... he is going mid second round... way to early for me... yikes.
Guy I really like is Chris Johnson. Rex has always been a rushing coach and I know ivory is there... but Chris is getting a decent number of receptions this preseason... got one goal line carry and punched it in... I would rather have Chris then Stacy... Chris is going 5th...6th round... I could see him giving you 3rd round value or even 2nd...
DeMarco Murray. To easy to pick someone in the 3rd round as a bust. I'm going with Murray. Dallas has no defense so they'll be playing from behind a lot and chunking balls. That will lose him touches plus the injury concerns. I would have picked Foster but he's not really going that high anymore.
Sleeper is Kelvin Benjamin. Newton has to throw to somebody and they still have a noexistent running game.
Bust 1: Andre Luck
To put it simply, he's a headache to start. For standard scoring, 18ppg is basically the bar for an acceptable QB1 performance. It's not "good", just the average benchmark where anything lower is below average. Luck scored 17.1 or less 9 times during the regular season (6 times under 15). He's often being drafted within the first 5 QBs, but the tier outside the elite QBs is so deep that you can find more consistent options that are not playing behind one of the worst OLs in the league and probably the worst OC in the league. Plus, any improvement in those areas this year likely means less of a need for comeback passing heroics that lead to inflated stats.
Bust 2: Jordan Cameron
Most have him in the top 5 TEs, and many are still rating him as an elite TE. But around 8th or 9th would be more appropriate because he's a complete gamble. I get the feeling that people promoting Cameron didn't actually own him last year.
-The guy averaged 3.3 ppg in his 6 of his last 7 games last year. (That's not even roster worthy.)
-After week 4, he averaged 6.2 ppg to finish the season. At least 15 other TEs had better seasonal averages than that.
-43% of his TDs came in one game last season.
-He only scored 2 TDs after week 4.
-The coaching staff/offense has changed this year.
-The he didn't have Hoyer or a QB excuse isn't valid since double-covered Gordon was thrashing secondaries during that span.
Steal: Anquan Boldin
He's a WR2/WR3 being drafted in WR5 territory, which is insane. He scored the 15th most points for WRs last year. Most people think that's only because Crabtree was hurt, but Boldin had his best run after Crabtree returned to the line-up.
9.3 ppg in 11 games without Crabtree
10.9 ppg in 8 games with Crabtree
For the "what ifs," if he played the whole year last year at 10.9 ppg, he finishes just behind Jordy Nelson on the season. He's also the clear starter opposite Crabtree. He's has 13th round Yahoo ADP right now
Garcon - aging and Jackson hogging balls.
Flacco - He was never that good. Boldin and Smith's glue hands were the magic. Now Smith gets triple-teamed.
Decker - OMG Smith is NOT an NFL QB.
Bills WR's. - Manuel...see above.....so sad though, best young WR class in the league.
R.Jennings - Stop bagging on this guy. He's solid.
RG3 - Both side of the ball got upgraded except the line. Should see big increase in scoring.
Denv D - Added a lot of weapons. Peyton will win or retire...bet on it.
Ray Rice - Bust. He has been regressing for a few years. I don't expect much from him. Bernard Pierce could overtake his touches.
Eric Decker- Geno is a much better QB than numbers showed last season. He has CJ2K and Eric Decker is king in red zone TDs
Bust - Doug Martin. Dude is so overrated. Just look at his career stats game by game and tell me otherwise. He had two good games in 2012 against dreadful MN and OAK Defenses. Take those two away and you are getting into Trent Richardson territory.
Upside: Kyle Rudolph. I think he will be a top 4 TE with Turner calling the shots.
Bust - Larry Fitzgerald. Overvalued because of the name. Michael Floyd on the rise. The team may not even have as successful of a year. You will probably laugh but I think I can find a few better WR3's.
Higher - Floyd would be a bit easy here so I'll go T.Y. Hilton instead. Young and promising numbers through his first two years. If Andrew Luck's numbers are up as they're projected to be, Hilton has to get some share of that. At this time, he's a much better bet than Wayne - 35 coming off acl injury - and Nicks - career plagued by injuries.
- 1 Reply to Norris
One bad year without anything resembling a QB and one bad year that isn't an "elite" and people just want to write Fitzgerald off. He actually had an excellent season for a WR2 if you look at it more closely, especially considering that you should be playing matchups with your WRs anyway.
Check this: He had 7 games without double-digit ppg, all but one of them against top Ds for fewest WR points allowed.
W2 3.3 (DET)
W3 6.4 (at NO)
W5 4.3 (CAR)
W7 1.7 (SEA)
W10 2.3 (HOU)
W15 4.9 (at TEN)
W16 1.8 (at SEA)
FOUR of those games were against Seattle, Tennessee, and Carolina, who ranked 1, 2, and 3, respectively, for fewest WR points allowed. Two more games were against New Orleans and Houston, who ranked 7th and 8th for fewest WR points allowed. His only inexcusable game for poor performance was Detroit (which allowed the 3rd most points) in week 2. Detroit and Philly were the only teams in the top 10 for most WR points allowed that he played.
Of course, you wouldn't have know to sit him early in the season, but the Seattle games were givens, and the Houston and Tennessee bad matchups would have been evident by the time those weeks came around. So if you didn't play him those 4 games, you got 12ppg for him on the season, which would have made him a low-end WR1.
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