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  • Dave Dave Jul 5, 2013 12:52 PM Flag

    how's my draft strategy?

    Looks like I'll be in the 9 or 10 spot in my draft, so I'm working on my strategy. 10-team PPR, -2 for pick-6's (but otherwise standard). Here's the lineup I'm coming up with pretty consistently.

    QB: varies between Stafford, Romo & Big Ben (backup one of these guys or Dalton)
    WR: Marshall, V-Jax & Shorts (backups vary among J Gordon, Tavon A, Michael Floyd, Hilton)
    RB: Morris, R Bush (backups usually Sproles & G Bernard/Vereen)
    TE: M Bennett (backup Cameron- my breakout sleeper pick for this year)

    I tend to stream DEF & K on matchups. So, any thoughts or opinions? Constructive criticism is welcome! Thanks!!

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    • No way id spend a high pick on morris in a ppr....

    • Reasonable.

      Your discussion of TEs, however, is a bit off the wall. After tier 1 (Graham) there's a huge gap to tier 2 (Witten, Gonzo and, if you're a huge optimist, Gronk) and then it's guesswork. Yes, Pitta and Olsen possibly have a chance to join tier 2, but you're likely dealing with a great chasm of uncertainty from 6-15. The theory that Bennett is not a TE1 is interestingly dogmatic but squares with none of the uncertainty that infects this position after the top 3.

      Bennett's fantasy numbers depend primarily on 3 factors: Cutler's success with Trestman's offense, whether the OL is sufficiently improved that Bennett's strong blocking skills aren't necessarily overused and the development of targets other than Marshall. If you believe,as I do, that all of that figures to come together except for Jeffery taking the necessary step forward, Bennett should yield TE1 production.

      The theory that you need to draft RB/RB/TE is utter hogwash...trendy, but still hogwash.

      • 1 Reply to Ol' Blues
      • I don't think anyone is promoting drafting a TE in round 3 (unless Graham is still available). What I was advising was going with more of a sure bet. I consider Pitta a sure bet, possibly even Olsen. Bennett, however, is a sleeper. Lots of upside, but also lots of risk, and it's important to make an individual decision on how much risk you're willing to accrue.

        I don't like Bennett, mostly because I don't like Cutler and Bennett figures to be ~3rd option. I don't think Cutler is a talented enough QB for any real sort of fantasy value to trickle down to his #3 option. However, maybe I'm wrong, and maybe he turns into a stud. It's impossible to know. I just advise taking a TE with better odds of success.

    • I really like two things about your draft strategy going in. First, is that you stream DEF and K, which gives you another two slots you can fill with playmakers until the season starts. When you're drafting this early, carrying extra players through training camp and the preseason is crucial, especially for deep sleepers.

      The second thing I like is that you're looking for a value QB, probably in the 6-7th round. With the depth at QB this year, this is a really efficient strategy. And even outside of Stafford and Romo, there's the possibility of other high value QBs slipping a round or two (e.g. RGIII and Luck), so it's important to note that even in the later rounds there's a large selection at the QB position.

      Overall I really like your draft (though I have no idea how you would possibly end up with Morris, Marshall, Bush, and Sproles). My only real problem with it is the TE position. I love Cameron as a sleeper as well, and have him as my backup TE in my 16 team league, but you should still prioritize getting a better starter. There's really no excuse for starting Bennett in a 10 team league, regardless of how much potential his backup has.

 

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