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  • Shake Shake Jun 24, 2012 11:24 PM Flag

    First Overall Pick

    To me it kind of feels like everyone is stuck in 2003 or something, back when rb's were always a first round pick, a must, or else you were laughed at for being a noob.

    I don't go strictly off last years stats, but you have to use them as a tool to judge this season to some degree. Is it possible to find a qb late in the draft like Stafford or Cam last year? Yes of course. Is it also possible to find a rb late in the draft, Foster (2010) Fred Jackson last season, Lynch last season, Demarco Murray for a bit last season. Very possible to find late rb's that can be helpful just as it is qb's.

    I'm not saying dont draft a rb in the 2nd round, I'm not even saying don't draft a rb in the first round necessarily, I'm just saying...if I have the choice to pick at first overall Rodgers is the safest bet, assuming health that there is. He has the ability to put up numbers that only Brees, Brady, Stafford and Newton could really rival on a week to week basis, but definitely is the safest of all those guys (well brees and brady as well).

    It's a passing league and if you don't take the best QB you'll have to make sure that your QB that you wait on (Eli, Vick, Romo, Peyton, Ryan, Ben, etc) puts up really good points because even though you may have the advantage at RB you're at a points disadvantage at QB and they score the most points per week...Trust me I've been on both sides of the argument, and I've noticed the years I've had a top 5 qb I've won, and the years I had a middle of the road guy, I probably made the playoffs, maybe finished 3rd...or so..

    It's not for everyone...but it's my opinion and there are enough facts to say its not a bad draft strategy.

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    • Shake, I agree about being stuck in the past. And many, not all...but many people who talk draft strategy are just mouthing what they've heard without doing any research on their own. The strategy i put forth isn't really anything "new"...so I'm not claiming to be a genius..lol But I will share this. I'm going into my 7th season of FF and I've never finished worse than 3rd. Winning in FF is like winning an NCAA title. You have to have some breaks along the way. For instance, by the numbers, I had the best draft in my league. I fully realize that preseason numbers aren't always reliable...but it's the best measure of how we drafted until the season is actually played out. I came in 2nd, but get this: the eventual champion had a team in which the combined number of games that all of his players missed due to injury was 11. My players missed 41! You can't plan for that, except to avoid "high injury risk players"...and I did that! Sometimes it's just luck that either hands you a championship, or loses one for you...and most times, you get a bit of both. It's all about reducing risk, maximizing potential...and hopin' and prayin' for the best!

    • Listen more and more people are going with the QB first. Afterall it has turned into a passing league and no I'm not living in the past, I'm changing with the times. I do know that I drafted Rice at #2 last year, got Stafford in the 5th and managed to win my league. I'm speaking strictly for this year and strictly for the first pick. I've basically told myself if I have say pick 6 through 10 I'm probably going to go with a QB. there's just so much uncertainty with the RB position but then this goes back to why I feel it's even more important to take Foster, rice or McCoy with the first pick. All elite backs and the focal point of their offense. Not an easy thing to find in today's NFL.

    • everything you said is valid, but I think that RB just ends up bottoming out more quickly than QB..., after the 3-4th round RB becomes kind of thin and unproven

 

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