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  • Nexus Nexus Jun 23, 2012 5:05 PM Flag

    First Overall Pick

    Hate drafting from that spot, but I have my choice of any elite player... Who do I take?

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    • JohnG,

      1. This is about as simple as you can make it. Last year, many owners were perfectly able to draft Foster or Rice in the first followed by Brady in the second or even Brees in the third. Compare that to taking Rodgers with an early pick and getting Forte at the back half of the second round.

      The same scenario exists this year: Owners who pick one of the top 3 RBs should have no problems grabbing Newton or Stafford (sometimes even Brees) at the back half of the second or early third. The depth at RB doesn’t exist for the opposite to be true. If you take a QB in the first, you’re just wasting your 1st pick on value you can still get later.

      2. You keep arguing that QBs are a better pick because of the injury disparity. This is false. The fact that RBs are more prone to injury only increases the value of owning those with the fewest question marks.. You argue that many of the top RBs missed significant time, and this is true to a point although you do exaggerate. However, you fail to point out that the prevalence of RB injuries and missed time occurs throughout all tiers of RBs, which makes the point moot because you still have to play RBs regardless of whether they are at greater risk for injury. In the long run, injured tier one backs are still going to produce more than lower tiers of injured RBs. You should never weigh one position’s injuries vs. another position’s injury risk to determine draft order because it is irrelevant the amount of players you have to start or bench.

      3. There is a sliding scale of production at QB almost every year with unexpected results.
      Among the top QBs per year...
      2011 – Newton, Stafford
      2010 – Vick
      2009 – Schaub, Favre
      2008 – Rodgers, Warner, Cutler, Rivers
      2007 – Romo, Derek Anderson, Roethlisberger

    • A league in which passing scores 1 pt per 20 yards. Plenty of leagues out there that score this way. But if you wanna compare stats at 1 pt per 25 yards, he results & argument don't change signicigantly.

    • In what league did Rodgers score 526 points???

    • no matter what league, take foster

    • And your point is?

    • mccoy then wr rb wr then take eli thats wat i do my teams r boss

    • If it's a PPR league, you have to take Foster.
      If you get penalized for INTS, you have to Take Foster

      I grabbed him in a FFL last year, made it through his injury phase and the guy paid off.

      I don't think you can go WRONG with rodgers...but I made a league last year and messed with the scoring HEAVILY to balance out all the different stats for DEF, IDP, and all the other positions (yahoo tends to be deficient for anything outside offense and QB's). There was NOTHING I could do to get Foster near reality points wise. A full season of him is just ridiculous.

      I don't take chances on players with injuries or contract issues...ever. I actually pulled Manning and CJ2K out of my autodrafts last year (And I'll pull Manning again this year) but the upside to Foster in terms of FF...he's the real deal and the best potential FF Player on any board in any league.

      • 1 Reply to Deuce
      • Deuce, I'm a life long U of Tennessee fan & had the pleasure of seeing Foster play for four years. I felt he was one of the best RBs that Tn has put out...ever. A few injury problems, but a significant problem w/ fumbling. A South Carolina TD by Sidney Rice put SC ahead in Foster's senior season...Tn had the chance to win the game...but Foster crossed the goal line w/ the ball in the process of coming loose...fumble, SC wins. Obviously, once he got to the NFL, the fumbling issue was resolved. As much as I liked Foster in college, I have to admit that I coild never have imagined that he'd be THAT GOOD!

    • Let's assume for a moment that not a single player in the NFL gets injured to the point of missing game time and then look at some stats.

      The argument most presented in this thread in support of going RB in the 1st, as opposed to a QB...seems to be this. You get your rare stud running back 1st, then get a good "value pick" in a later round...because there's "great depth at QB this season".

      Eli Manning is often mentioned as one of these value picks. Someone else mentioned Matt Ryan. So let's compare stats from last season based on two scenarios:

      1. a QB 1st strategy in which we take Rodgers

      2. a RB 1st strategy in which we take Rice & Eli at QB in a later round.

      2011 points:

      Eli : 386.82, Rice: 311.84 Total pts.: 651.66

      Rodgers: 516.6

      So how many points would a RB that is drafted in a later round and paired with Rodgers have to score for that combo to post the same number of points as the Eli /Rice combo?

      Answer: 135.06

      In other words, Rodgers & Jonathan Stewart @ 146.60...would have outscored Eli & Rice by over 10 points.

      Jonathan Stewart? Are you kidding me? Jonathan Stewart?

      I could give several more examples in which we insert Brees, Brady, Cam, or Stafford...and you'd get similar results.

      If this isn't enough to turn your head in favor of the elite QB 1st...then read my previous post which details the numerous injuries that lost a mega number of game for all those top rated RBs that so many people think they "just have to have"...in order to win the big trophy...and if that's not enough, go ahead...roll the dice, take the RB 1st...and if you're much luckier than last year's owner who did the same...you might have a shot at it, despite the fact that you're clearly going against the odds.

    • Jumpimg in here again and i've posted in the draft strategy discussion as well.
      First nice to read thought out arguments and respectful disagreement rather than the "you suck join my league so i can win... rate my team... join my league.....I'm the only one who knows anything...." stuff
      Now lets discuss the fact that there is strategy and tactics. If you are picking 8th or 9th and all your leaguemates( is that a word) from 2-7 have gone Rodgers- Brees- Brady- Stafford- Cam- Romo- Ya gotta take Rice and i would take the best wr coming back...but if spots 9 and 10 double up on wr and Mccoy comes back to me i'm grabbing him.
      Is there a specific method any of you use to track other team needs.
      We generally have a big board so if i see that everyone has filled up in a certain position i might reach for a need they all have and count on being able to get my guy at said position when it comes back to me

    • Btw, I'm not saying go pick Rodgers and then wait and pick Greene as your first rb just in case anyone gets that idea.

      Those stats are just to show the difference of whats there during the rounds those 4 players are generally picked.

      What I'm saying, and it's just my opinion is that after picking a first round qb if you can that is, take a rb if possible in the next 2 rounds...no later than round 5 to have 2 rbs and you should be fine. Most likely you'd probably want to have 2 rbs by round 3 though.

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