• Draft and Trade Talk Message Board

  • A Yahoo! User Aug 14, 2010 10:58 PM Flag

    Andre Johnson = Bad

    Ok, not really, but for those pondering picking him at 7th, 6th, or even 5th....think again.

    Andre is a stud receiver without question, but every year a different WR is always overhyped and reached for in drafts. Last year it was Larry Fitzgerald. The year before that it was Randy Moss. The top stud never repeats.

    So as you ponder passing on a RB in the first round to take "they guy" everyone loves, just remember that this years real top WR will most likely be taken in the 2nd or early 3rd round. Again, no dis on Andre. He is a stud and very consistent. He is the Peyton Manning of wideouts. Always good, sometimes great. But I would much rather take a top RB first and then select my stud WR in the next round.

    Just saying.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • lol first of all if back to back 1500 yd seasons makes him a very consistent stud let put him up there next to TO which had two 1400 yd seasons back to back with 13 tds one year and 16 the other. which johnson the {stud} in 7 seasons 5 being all 16 games played has never got more than 9 tds. when moss had almost 1500 yds and 23 tds in one year he didnt even go til the end of the first round so yes he is very overhyped as a fantasy player. As a nfl reciever he's as talented as they get but not in fantasy. touche'

    • I don't agree at all. AJ has a ton of value there as he is a consistent WR and the best in the game. I didn't draft Fitz last year for a reason. There are more RBs in the later rounds that get the ball a ton. More than WRs anyway. Look at Best, Benson, McCoy. Id rather have them and AJ than Ochocinco and Matthews or Mendenhall

    • I'm going to throw some numbers at you here: VORP numbers. Basically, how many points per game a player is worth vs. some average guy in that spot. The numbers are according to an average of projections from Accuscore, CBS, FFToday, Yahoo and ESPN.

      Gore: +3.14 pts/game
      Turner: +2.95 pts/g
      Jackson: +2.15 pts/g
      Mendenhall: +2.24 pts/g
      D. Will: +2.11 pts/g

      Andre Johnson: +5.16 pts/g

      If the projections are correct, Andre is worth it at 5. WR is deep, but you can start more than 1 WR. And if you grab another Tier1 WR you are looking at another +3-4 pts/g VORP from them.

      Past the Big 4, projections from across the entire internet say that RBs suck, and suck bad.

      • 3 Replies to Mark
      • Projections also said Cedric Benson was a 800 yard back going into last year, and Larry Johnson would get over 1200. You do realize those are just guys who took stats classes in college and think they can develop a formula to beat everyone else. The only problem is you have to determine how the prior stats are weighted evenly for everyone. And no one has the same scenario going into this year that they did even last year. Even Adrian Peterson, the most consistent big play guy the past few years. Last year he had a decent back up, a great QB, and a top WR and TE. This year he may have an even better back up who gets more carries. Or the guy could be a complete waste of a second round pick, which is the word most people are labeling him with already. You may not have Favre there which makes the receivers a lot less effective. So does this mean more carries for AP and better production, or more guys in the box to shut him down? I'm guessing the number guys don't have projections for that, seeing you still don't know who will be there in week 1.

      • I'm going to throw one number at you...2009.

        If you could go back in time, by all means take AJ at 7. Of course warn all Fitz lovers to NOT take him at 7. That is what I am trying to do.

        I'm not saying throw projections to the wayside. They are valuable, but they are only projections. Nobody projected CJ2K to have 64 more fantasy points more than Adrian Peterson. In fact, I remember the same thing being said last year "after the top 5, RBs start sucking"

        I am just saying do your due dilegence and force yourself to properly asses those RBs from 6-10. It might prove valuable to you.

      • so what you're saying is after the top 4 RB - going WR/WR might possibly make the most sense? or at least WR/RB?

        Whatever it is... one thought is if I draft RB's later than I'd like - draft a lot of them... load up... maybe you'll find that one who goes off... and often RB's are worth more in a trade because good ones are hard to find....

    • I draft 8th out of a 10 team league. If Andre is still there at 8 there is an excellent chance I'll draft him.

      • 1 Reply to Tom M
      • Last year I picked 8th... knowing the 2 guys at 9 and 10 I knew that they'd each take a QB and hoped they wouldn't grab Capt Quick and he'd make it back to me.... they both went QB/WR and Johnson was mine... I got the WR I wanted - Fitz at 8 .... and the RB I wanted - CJ ....if I had taken CJ at the 8th pick (I thought that was a reach at the time) I wouldn't have gotten the WR I wanted ---- granted in hindsight he didn't turn out to be the top WR --- but almost everyone thought he would be....

        This was a private league btw.... and it all worked out for me...

    • I got Ray Rice at #6 when someone picked him #5 and Rodgers #4

    • Sachin “Truth” Arora Sachin “Truth” Arora Aug 15, 2010 1:59 AM Flag

      Andre is def not a bad pick at 7 ..prob wouldn't take him at 5th or 6th. But he's better than the second tier of RB's, esp in PPR. In the 1st round you want consistency, and that's what he's given.

    • A handful of top RB's get hurt every year. Or just go away. Qb's and WR's stay much more consistent. Turner, Portis, Gore, Slaton, White, R.Brown, P. Thomas, Forte all let down their owners as top 50 picks last year. How many WR's? Royal, TO, that's about it. Now how many QB's? maybe manning

    • He's actually on the right track here. If you are selecting 5 or 6, you're looking at Johnson. I'm taking Gore considering the 49er's are facing one of the easiest schedules.

      • 2 Replies to CJ
      • So are you trying to say that I did bad in my draft cuz I picked Andre Johnson at the 7th pick in the first round. I mean don't get me wrong I get wrong your saying. It seems to change every year on who the top wideout is, I'm mean you always have your top 5 guys that people throw around to rank but there is always one who stands out just like every position. So yea I understand but when you think about it there should only be guy you take in the first round for WR and that's Andre, if you're in an 8 or 10 team league. Anything higher than I can see Calvin Johnson and Wayne and Moss and Fitz. I'm just saying that I'm in an 8 team league and picked Andre and then still managed to get a top RB like Steven Jackson in round 2. I ended up getting Jackson, Charles, Best, Forsett and Bradshaw for RB. I got a good solid 3 starters in my lineup and 2 backups who are solid. I'm just saying that you play to win and you win by having good players on your team and you always want to have that #1 stud. Yes you can still have good players on your team while doing it your way, but saying to stay away from Andre Johnson in the 1st round if you have the chance to take him is absolutely dumb when you can still get top back in the 2nd round or you can always make trades. Andre Johnson is Definately worth taking in the 1st round if you have the chance.

      • 5 or 6 is too early for Andre, you should be taking one of these rb's maybe even Rodgers or Brees,but not Johnson. Johnson is consistent but so are Moss and Wayne, you might not believe this but Moss was first in Fantasy WR's two years ago and second in fantasy last year, that is pretty consistent, the drop off in RB is more dramatic than the drop off in WR. I was in a draft this year and a Pats fan took Brady 5th it was only a ten man league, he could have wait till Rd 2 at least and probably RD 3.


    • Im sorry but you are absolutely wrong.

      The reason he's over hyped is because other WR arnt' Fitz, Moss have both dropped out of favor to a certain point (as far as top tier WR can drop).

      Really its just about WR not looking all that appealing this season. And who is to take at #7? He's certainly a better pick then Mendenhall and Ryan Mathews haha.

      Now if you want to talk Austin Miles or Steve Smith (either one but lets say giants) now thats overrated WR right there and will not be nearly what they were last year.

      • 1 Reply to Nick M
      • No worries, everyone has their opinion. What a boring draft it would be if we didn't.

        I think taking Dre at 7 is a cop out. I think it says "I have no ability to rank my running backs past the top tier so Andre is the safe pick" Truth be told, there are studs in the late 1st round waiting to be picked up there. I'm sure there are people that took Fitz last year that would have wish they taken CJ instead or even Gore. Those 6 - 10 guys have some star power. I'd want to have a good reason for passing on them. History has shown that even after some huge stand alone years like Moss and Fitz had, there is no guarantee that you can duplicate such numbers.

        People love to have the best of something whether it be Andre or Rodgers. That is great and all, but they are last years best. Play smart and just have a balance of greatness. Reaching is the golden rule of fantasy mishaps.

    • "He is a stud and very consistent"
      and that's why people grab him pick 7 or later... should someone avoid Chris Johnson because he won't repeat with his numbers? nah.... you go with what you know... and we all know Andre is a giant amongst WR's .... also... if you grab a WR in round 2 or 3... you've probably grabbed the guy who'll replace him at the top... no? ;)

      • 1 Reply to will
      • Avoid Chris Johnson? Honestly, if you have the #1 overall, who else would you take? That is not a good argument for comparison.

        People take him too early because they expect him to the best WR again.

        What people should know is Dre will be in the top tier of WRs again this year....but so will a few other guys. I'd rather get a top RB along with my top tier WR rather than a weaker RB.


Expert Fantasy Advice