Draft and Trade Talk Message Board
I have the first overall pick in a 12 team, 16 man roster, snaking draft league. I don't like waiting 23 spots for my second pick. I've gotten no bites on trading the spot for an additional pick, but the guy picking 5th wants to trade me straight up 1st for 5th.
I can't see a clear concensus #1 pick, and am counting on still getting someone great at #5. Should I do it?
I had the same dilema in our league and kept the #1 and it worked out just fine. I got a solid team. Either pick you will get a great player and have to hope others draft differently than you so players are still there. I would keep 1
I would stay put. Take RB AP with top choice.
You are trading picks 1, 24, 25 & 48 etc. for 5, 20, 29 & 44. I would prefer getting the player of my choice at #1 and having more control of my next back-to-back picks w/ 24 & 25.
If you trade for the 5th -- you'll still get a top RB w/ your 1st pick. However, you might get caught off gaurd in the 3rd round if you decide to reach for a top WR in Rd2 expecting a particular RB to be there in the 3rd, but he gets drafted and now you're forced to draft RB you really had not prefer b/c you cannot wait until the 44 pick to grab your #2 RB. Same could happen if you use your first two picks for a RB.
I think draft success is mostly result of the first three picks, sets the tone for the remaining spots. First three I take the best player then I start targeting filling my positions in the 4th + rounds. I would rather have 1, 24 & 25 vs 5, 20 & 29.
meaning you'll draft 5th? If so, then yeah. #1 has a lot of pressure, and it doesn't always pay off. And since Adrian Peterson is not (IYO!!) a #1 pick, then go 5th. it is nice to have the picks spaced out too. instead of drafting 1, 24, 25 then waiting again....you get better balance. instead of thinking of 2 picks at a time.
There are more advantages to being in the middle, than at the end of the line (1 or 12)
I agree I wouldn't go as low as 5th straight up as 8 picks between your bookend picks is too many (I wouldn't go lower than 3rd myself).
When in doubt look at the ADP's for the spots you'll be getting in both scenarios - of course you have to allow for a bit of variation but you'll get a decent idea of what you might expect to find in the first 4 rounds and can work it out from there...
If you don't believe AP is a number 1 pick, or don't want to debate it, definitely hit the number 5 up. If the cards play right, you might even line yourself up for Matt Forte and if that doesn't happen, Chris Johnson will definitely be available. So many posibilites. However, switching to number 5th, your main focus will be the second round. with my experience, you'll end up having to go RB RB rather than RB and WR... you might be able to sneak in a high tier QB though, who knows, but please be aware that you'll most like have to go RB RB- not that its a horrible thing or anything. ;)
Im sure you'd be happy with Chris johnson and steve slaton, maybe try to slide an Aaron Rodgers in at the third round and trade him and steve slaton for a first round RB while you pick tony romo or another QB down the road ;) I've done that plenty of times in my leagues. Thats what I love about fantasy trades, they come in all sorts of bunches :)
Good luck and have fun out there
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