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  • checkdaProfile checkdaProfile Nov 20, 2007 3:22 PM Flag

    fantasy football theory - please respond

    I came up with a theory last night and am wondering what your opinion is. Here it is: Whoever gets the "standout" of the year, wins the league - It is therefore more a matter of "luck" than skill to win fantasy football...overall -

    What I mean by this is that any team this year with Brady is kicking butt - As long as they don't draft absolute scrubs the rest of the way, this seems to happen every year - 1 certain player just has a MONSTER year and he almost single handedly wins fantasy titles. Last year it was LT, a couple years ago it was Manning - If you've been around long enough you would remember Priest Holmes dominating leagues by himself as well -
    This only sticks out in footballs from my experience. Basketball players have standout years as well, but you need more of a balanced team still and good luck the whole year - I think that Football is set up in such a way (with limited roster spots and TD's being the main scoring option) that 1 superstar player determines who wins the titles every year -

    I know in 1 of my leagues the guy with Brady ALWAYS misses the playoffs - but this year he's KILLING us - He's not a great manager, I just think he got "that player" this year - Last year everyone with LT did the same thing -

    What do you guys think?

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    • I agree totally with what you are saying. Especially If you are a good manager and hit on a monster like Brady you can build around him. I browsed the point leading teams in Yahoo standard scoring leagues and it seems like they all were fortunate enough to land Brady and Moss!!

    • While I do agree that luck does play a factor in FFB, I have to say that I DON'T agree that it's the determining factor in what wins championships.

      It also takes good planning, understanding of teams/player tendancies & match-ups, & negotiation skills. THAT is where championships are won.

      Case in point, look at my team and compare it from Week 1 to now.

      WEEK 1
      QB: Brees, Leinhart
      RB: T. Henry, S. Alexander, Jones-Drew, Lynch, AP (MIN)
      WR: L. Fitz, Andre Johnson, S. Holmes, Reggie Brown, James Jones, Darrell Jackson
      TE: Vernon Davis

      QB: Brees, Schaub
      RB: Lynch, AP, SJAX, Addai, Chester Taylor, & MBIII
      WR: L. Fitz, Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, DJ Hackett
      TE: Donald Lee

      If you look closely you can see that I drafted ALOT of the big BUSTs/disappointment players for this year. But through several series of smart waiver pick-ups & trades, I was able to get the team I have now. I went from starting the season 0-3 to now be in 2nd place at 7-4.

      You're probably going to say that I have AP on my team hence that qualifies as the 1 MONSTER break-out player you mentioned. But keep in mind that AP didn't always have those monster games every week. There were several weeks where he was just mediocre.

      Here's another example, another guy in my league owns Brady. He is currently 7th in our league and doesn't look like he'll be making the playoffs. Why isn't he in contention? Because he refuses to make trades and made several poor judgements on which players to start. I think this owner just got so arrogant about having Brady that he thought Brady by himself will beat everyone each week.

      The point i'm trying to get across is that it takes skill to analyze your team's weaknesses and strengths. Through this analysis you as the owner need to go out and get the players to fill those holes. Luck has no factor in that.

      The only way luck plays the majority factor in this game is if you drafted your team and just let it sit there for the rest of the year. If that's that case then why are you even playing the game?

    • Well i dont know what you've been smoking, but every year fantasy football is all about luck.

      Unless you're retarded and just can't put together a decent team. Most teams sitting at the top of the leagues all have good teams going. At that point its out of your hands, and nothing but LUCK. Like how many points you score = luck, your team not getting injured = luck.

      It's what makes fantasy football great, you have no idea wtf is going to happen, you can only *guess*. There is no skill in it. Unless you consider putting together a competent team skill, but thats pretty damn easy to do, unless you don't understand football at all.

      Skill doesn't win championships in fantasy football, luck wins championships. Anything can happen on any given sunday.

      • 1 Reply to Matsumoto
      • Hmm... someone sounds pretty bitter. Seems like you've been getting several bad beats in your league huh?

        It's ignorant for you to say that there's no skill playing this game.

        - "Most teams sitting at the top of the leagues all have good teams going."

        Duh... why do you think those teams are there?

        - "There is no skill in it. Unless you consider putting together a competent team skill, but thats pretty damn easy to do"

        Wow! Your reasoning "skills" just blows my mind. You probably play only in public leagues where everyone does autodrafting. Then THAT's luck. Try playing in private leagues where you're live drafting against 9 other experienced players. There's no better feeling than out drafting the other guys.


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