The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

1. Houston Texans

In their seven years of existence, the Texans have never finished above .500 and they've never made the playoffs. The last important thing they won was the top pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. This is not exactly one of the league's most decorated franchises.

It can be argued (not well) that Houston's placement atop the 2009 Juggernaut Index is the greatest achievement in team history. When you sort through all the preseason ranks and ADPs, it's tough to make a case for any other squad. Consider these facts:

• Houston has two players who rank inside the overall top 12;

• You'll find Texans rated among the top 10 fantasy options at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and kicker;

• Five Texans were taken within the first 100 picks in a typical draft, and two were selected inside the top 20;

• Houston's defense has a pair of elite IDPs – Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans – yet the team D is still a sieve. The Texans allowed 24.6 points per game in '08 and 22.8 in the preseason. Every game has shootout potential.

It's a perfect fantasy storm, really. Houston offers high-end options at every position, each player's role is well defined, and the defense offers little resistance. (During exhibition play, the Texans' D specialized in giving up long rushing touchdowns. You'll find tape of Xavier Adibi over-pursuing here and of widespread disarray here). Unlike many analysts, we're not trying to convince you that the Texans will be a division winner…or any other sort of winner. We're merely urging you to invest in them for fantasy purposes.

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.  

2. New Orleans Saints

We know there's going to be a ton of fantasy goodness coming from the Bayou again this season; with Drew Brees and Sean Payton in place, it's hard to go wrong. But it's a little tricky getting a definitive feel for the other skill players in this offense.

Let's start with the constant in all this, the magnificent Brees. He's been a Top 5 fantasy quarterback for all three of his seasons in New Orleans and he finally got to the top of the heap last year, beating everyone at the position. He's led the league in pass attempts and completions two years running, and he's been tops in yards two out of three seasons. He's missed just one game in five years. You can't make a safer pick at quarterback this year.

But even with Brees's aerial circus, it's not easy to identify a can't-miss wide receiver on this roster. Marques Colston is a physical and reliable possession receiver but he's no burner; you‘d love him as your fantasy No. 2 WR, but in many formats you‘ll have to pay for him as a No. 1. Devery Henderson is a dynamite deep threat but at the end of the day, just a one-trick pony. Robert Meachem routinely dominates football games in August but we've yet to see that carry over to real games. And Lance Moore probably won't sneak up on anyone again, and his touchdown-to-reception ratio (10 scores, 79 catches ) is unlikely to repeat.

For all of Brees's ability, he's not a mad bomber. The strength of this offense is short passing with a few intermediate throws, getting rid of the ball quickly, making good decisions consistently. Brees loves to throw behind the line of scrimmage and between the numbers - the Saints led the league in RB and TE catches last year - but he won't force the ball outside if the play isn't there.

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

3. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles were sixth in the NFL in points scored last year (26.0 per game) and ninth in total yardage (350.5). They were loaded with talent before having the NFL's best offseason. Now, with redundancy at the skill positions and upgrades throughout the roster, anything less than 11 wins and a return to the NFC title game would be a severe disappointment.

No pressure, Philly.

Let's review the team's key offseason moves in order of fantasy relevance…

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

4. New England Patriots

It's back to normal for the Patriots now that Tom Brady is back in the saddle. We'll get lots of passing numbers here, lots of backfield headaches and lots of vague comments when it comes to injuries and personnel decisions. We're all used to the ways of Camp Belichick by now.

Brady did everything fantasy owners wanted to see over the summer and with that he‘s settled in as the clear No. 2 or No. 3 quarterback on just about everyone's board. Brady usually takes most of the preseason off but not this year; the Pats let him play in three games, take hits, get his pocket awareness back. The results were what you'd expect from midseason Brady (26-for-42, 307 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT), and although there was a brief scare when Albert Haynesworth piled into the quarterback's shoulder, all the Brady news filtering out of New England over the last week has been positive. The Pats are prepared to open the year with rookie Brian Hoyer backing up Brady, and that tells you all you need to know about the health of the main guy.

Randy Moss should return to fantasy prominence now that Brady has returned. Moss played the good soldier through the Matt Cassel interlude last year – the wideout never pouted or quit – but it was clear Moss and Cassel never got on the same page. Deep passes to No. 81, forget it. Red-zone chemistry, they never had it. Moss had a spring in his step all during the summer (he looks like a player poised to score 15 or more times again) and Moss didn't blow off the exhibitions, picking up a pair of touchdowns and 90 yards in New England's second preseason game. Add it all up and this is someone you can consider in the late first round of most leagues, and he better not slip past the second.

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

5. San Diego Chargers

Last year, Philip Rivers had the 13th highest single-season passer rating in NFL history (105.5) and he tied for the league lead in touchdown passes (34). Yet somehow he wasn't in the MVP discussion and he wasn't selected to the Pro Bowl, which was just…well, it was entirely wrong.

Rivers was outstanding, a huge fantasy asset, as valuable to his team as any player in the NFL. He finished 12th in the league in pass attempts (478), but he was fifth in yardage (4009). His 8.4 yards per attempt easily led the NFL, and he threw only 11 interceptions. Rivers' offense is loaded with talent this year and the defenses in his division didn't exactly distinguish themselves in 2008. The Broncos allowed more points than any team in the AFC (28.0), the Chiefs allowed the second-most (27.5) and the Raiders yielded the fourth-most (24.3).

So Rivers' situation seems favorable in '09. If you own him, your biggest worry entering the season is whether the Chargers offense will be too efficient, thus limiting his pass attempts. A secondary concern, of course, is the return to health of LaDainian Tomlinson.

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

6. Indianapolis Colts

For years, fantasy experts have fought a strange, unwinnable battle against Peyton Manning. It's not that we dislike him specifically. We've just never approved of his average draft position. If you've owned Manning in prior seasons, you've used an early pick to get him – typically a first rounder, sometimes an early second.

In a 10-team public league full of auto-pickers, you can get away with a selection like that. In fact, you can get away with almost anything in a small, casual league. If you take a quarterback at the top of the draft in a deeper competitive format, however, there are serious costs, usually at running back and receiver. 

But these days, Drew Brees is the quarterback who sneaks into the first round. He's the consensus No. 1 at his position after leading all players in fantasy scoring in 2008. Manning, it seems, is an afterthought. He's a third-rounder in most drafts, and a fourth-rounder if fantasy professionals are involved. 

Suddenly, Manning seems like a reasonable value pick. The guy hasn't missed a game in 11 years, he's thrown for more than 4,000 yards in nine of the last 10, and he's never finished a season with fewer than 26 touchdown passes. Manning's floor is something like 3,900-26-14. Even if he has a bad year by his standards, he'll easily be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. He receives this blog's full endorsement.

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. We began at No. 32, the NFL's least useful franchise (Oakland), and we're working our way toward the elite teams. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

For all the sunshine given to Matt Ryan last year, he wasn't the man in charge of the Atlanta offense. The Falcons were the most run-heavy team in the NFC, and no team ran more often on first down or in the first half of games. But with Ryan a year older and wiser, there's a good chance Atlanta's offense will be more balanced and more fantasy-friendly in 2009. For the first time in recent memory, you're highlighting multiple Falcons on your cheat sheet.

There's one other important thing Ryan will do a lot this year - hand off to Michael Turner. The Falcons hit paydirt with their backfield acquisition last year and although Turner is coming off a busy season, I'm still bullish on him entering 2009.

Okay, Turner had 376 carries last year. Time to choose up sides here, either you're for The Curse of 370 concept or you're not. Here are some reasons why I'm not running from Turner just because he had one heavy season of work:

• Injuries are so random in the NFL. On every play the offense gives the ball to someone while 11 angry men on the other side of the field try to inflict physical pain on that player. Did a crazy workload really end Terrell Davis's days as a star, or was it a fluke injury that occurred while he was making a tackle? Did Larry Johnson succumb to overuse, or was he felled by a low tackle that compromised his ankle? Isn't getting hurt an occupational hazard of playing in the league to begin with?

• Turner only had six catches last year, so while 376 carries sounds really nasty, we're only talking about 382 touches. It's no walk in the park, but it's not an earth-shattering total. Adrian Peterson had 384 touches last year and I don't hear anyone calling for his physical collapse, Football Outsiders included; Peterson is ranked No. 2 overall in their published fantasy ranks, while Turner is 33. (Yes it does seem like the physical wear-and-tear is less on receptions as opposed to rushing attempts. But it's still tackle football, isn't it? How did LaDainian Tomlinson thrive through all of his heavy-use years, including one season over 370 rushes? It couldn't be related to physical conditioning and being able to avoid kill shots, could it?)

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

8. Carolina Panthers

Last year, many of us went into the Week 16 Sunday night game loaded with confidence. We held commanding leads in championship matchups – in highly incentivized leagues – against opponents whose hopes rested with DeAngelo Williams.

If there was a fantasy version of the prevent defense, we would have fallen into it. The setup for Williams wasn't great. He faced the Giants' D in the Meadowlands in a game that seriously mattered. Cigars were lit. Concession calls were made. We felt good.

And then Williams absolutely crushed us. He carried 24 times for 108 yards and four TDs against a terrific defense, on the road, when you knew exactly what the Panthers wanted to do. (Four touchdowns. [Expletive]. Some of us could have survived three).

Williams was unquestionably the fantasy MVP last season. Anyone who disagrees simply wasn't paying attention over the final weeks. He broke the plane 11 times between Weeks 13 and 16. For the year, he rushed for a total of 1515 yards and 20 TDs. His offensive line, anchored by tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah, was a dominant run-blocking unit. Williams finished as the top-scoring fantasy running back in '08, and by a comfortable margin.

If you're betting against him this year, you do so at your own peril.

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. We began at No. 32, the NFL's least useful franchise (Oakland), and we're working our way toward the elite teams. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

 

When a team falls as far as the Cowboys have over a year's time – they were last year's Juggernaut No. 1 after all – a lot of critics take their shots. I'm here to make excuses.

The Pokes were actually living up to the hype until midway through 2008 – that's when everything fell apart. Tony Romo busted his pinkie, and replacement Brad Johnson wasn't equipped to run the offense. Marion Barber dislocated his toe. Felix Jones came down with hamstring and toe injuries. Roy Williams came over from Detroit and couldn't pick up the scheme. Terrell Owens whined about his role in the offense. And so it goes.

The key to getting the offensive gravy train going again is Romo, of course. He's looked pretty snappy in the preseason, completing 70 percent of his passes and getting 7.5 yards per attempt. Keep in mind this guy posted 265 yards per game and 2 TDs per start last year, elite numbers. Owens didn't help the bottom line as much as you might think; TO only caught about half of the balls intended for him last year and at times was counter-productive to the offense. If you can wait on quarterback and still land Romo in the 5-8 range, you've done well.

Assuming Williams can quickly recover from the shoulder problem he ran into last week, I like him as a bounce-back player in 2009 and a good value. You rarely see NFL trades around the October deadline because mid-season scheme changes are so daunting. Williams was a very good if not great receiver in Detroit while he had a collection of scrubs throwing him the ball. Keep him hale for four months and this looks like 1,100 yards and 7-9 TDs, easy.

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The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. We began at No. 32, the NFL's least useful franchise (Oakland), and we're working our way toward the elite teams. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

10. Green Bay Packers

Look at the way Aaron Rodgers is glaring up at his Juggernaut rank, incredulous. He clearly expected something better.

Reasonable arguments can be made on Green Bay's behalf, of course. Three Packers are typically selected within the top 50 picks in Yahoo! drafts: Greg Jennings (ADP 25.0), Rodgers (37.1) and Ryan Grant (45.7). Jennings was the fourth highest-scoring wide receiver last year and Rodgers was the second leading scorer among all players. Those two combined for 488 public league points in '08. They were the No. 2 quarterback/receiver tandem for fantasy purposes, behind only Warner/Fitzgerald. They're exceptional.

Rodgers and Jennings are also both 25 and they're signed to multi-year deals, so get used to seeing them in the top tiers at their positions. They'll be there for a few more years. Rodgers can make any throw, he limits turnovers (13 INTs) and he's a threat to run (4 rush TDs). Jennings gets easy separation, he's a serious deep and intermediate weapon, and he has a nose for the end zone (21 TDs since '07). Short slants become long touchdowns when he's the target.

As a fan of a more honorable NFC North franchise, I can tell you without reservation that I am thoroughly sick of Greg [expletive] Jennings. But he's the No. 5 receiver on my draft board.

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