Sat Oct 11, 2008 8:40 am EDT
Each week the Noise will guide desperate, deep-thinking owners into the dark corners of the waiver wire to mine a last-minute diamond. Turn on your helmet light and pack a pickaxe. We're digging for drop-jaw surprises owned in less than 10 percent or started in less than five percent of Yahoo! leagues.
JaMarcus Russell (30 percent owned, five percent started) is ready to rise up to the challenge of a rival.
In the same sweet-smelling stadium where he was crowned Sugar Bowl MVP in 2007 (the Superdome) the former LSU standout returns, this time in Silver and Black.
While playing in Lane Kiffin's ultra-conservative offense, Russell's kid gloves rarely came off. Probably for good reason. In eight career games he's posted a mere 54.5 completion percentage.
But Al Davis' delusional management style has actually benefited the former No.1 pick. With boy blunder Kiffin at home playing electric football, new head honcho Tom Cable plans to overhaul the Raiders' smash-mouth offense. Per the Oakland Tribune:
"We have to be more balanced, be willing and enjoy the fact that we're going to take shots down the field on people. Those two concepts have to happen for us to keep people off-balance."
Raiders offensive coordinator Greg Knapp is focused on developing Russell into a QB prizefighter, something the second-year rocket launcher, who totaled a career-high 277 yards last week versus San Diego under Knapp's direction, is thrilled with.
"Last game you could tell the difference with the pass and the run. With him (Knapp) calling the plays, you could see it open up a little bit more."
Yes, Russell is still extremely green and his primary weapon Javon Walker has tallied more facial fractures than touchdowns since June but, with Knapp's guidance, he should finish with appreciable totals in consecutive weeks. The Saints have surrendered 257 yards and 1.2 scores per game, equal to the 12th-most fantasy points conceded to quarterbacks. They've also allowed nineteen 20-yard pass plays, the most in the NFL.
Knapp will surely take advantage of 'Nawlins' weakness by attacking them vertically. Given Russell's cannon arm, look expect him to connect with Walker or fleet-footed jet Johnnie Lee Higgins on a couple of explosive pass plays.
This week, Russell's "Eye of the Tiger" won't blink.
Week 6 Fearless Forecast: 23-38, 264 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
Previous Shockers: Hank Baskett (2-102-TD), Brian Griese (160-1-0), James Jones (1 drop, injury), Lance Moore (7-101-2TDs), David Martin (1-25-0)
Who is your Week 6 Shocker Special? Post your selection with projection in the comments section below.
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Image courtesy of US Presswire
Sat Oct 04, 2008 12:20 pm EDT
Each week the Noise will guide desperate, deep-thinking owners into the dark corners of the waiver wire to mine a last-minute diamond. Turn on your helmet light and pack a pickaxe. We're digging for drop-jaw surprises owned in less than 10 percent or started in less than five percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Most games David Martin is Miami's My Little Pony when compared to Italian Stallion, Anthony Fasano.
But this week, San Diego's horrendous short-field defense will turn the plastic-hoofed foal into a beer-hauling Clydesdale. The Chargers have surrendered 7.3 receptions, 88.5 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game to tight ends, far and away the most points yielded to monolithic targets in fantasy. Head coach Norv Turner has been amazed by his defense's wizardry. Per the Orlando Sentinel:
"Tight ends have had big days against us and that's something we're working on, just continuing to get our guys to understand where we're being threatened, where we're being attacked and how we have to defend it."
Splitting time between Green Bay and Miami, Martin has been nothing more than a role player in his uneventful eight-year career. Last year in his best statistical season, he caught just 34 passes for 303 yards and two scores.
However, under Tony Sparano's direction, Martin is on pace to obliterate his previous career highs. Targeted on average 4.3 times per game, he's netted 2.7 receptions and 35.3 yards per game. He's also scored once. Shockingly, his 5.5 fantasy points per game output, ranked tenth at his position, is higher than notable names Chris Cooley, Greg Olsen, and steaming feces pile Vernon Davis. Martin, who sees plenty of action opposite Fasano in Miami's two-tight end schemes, has been thrilled with his early results. From the Palm Beach Post:
"I think this year I'm doing a lot of different things that complement my ability. That's the difference from then to now."
A solid route-runner with surprising agility, the 6-foot-4, 265-pound receiving titan will be targeted by Chad Pennington roughly 5-8 times this week. Because Pennington has distributed the football with marginal success downfield, he'll take advantage of San Diego's defensive inefficiencies by attacking the middle of the field, which means Martin and Fasano will be squared in the crosshairs often.
For Kellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, and Zach Miller owners hoping to discover bye week wire gold, the eight-percent owned (five-percent started) Martin appears to have a shiny luster.
Week 5 Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Previous Shockers: Hank Baskett (2-102-TD), Brian Griese (160-1-0), James Jones (1 drop, injury), Lance Moore (7-101-2TDs)
Who is your Week 5 Shocker Special? Post your selection with projection in the comments section below.
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Image courtesy of US Presswire
Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:50 am EDT
Each week the Noise will guide desperate, deep-thinking owners into the dark corners of the waiver wire to mine a last-minute diamond. Turn on your helmet light and pack a pickaxe. We're digging for drop-jaw surprises owned in less than 10 percent or started in less than five percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Sir Lancelot will prove that chivalry is alive and well. Well, at least for fantasy owners.
The injury imp's menacing bite has severely handicapped the Saints receiving corps. Out are former Pro Bowl selections Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey. Dependable wideout David Patten, expected to be a game-time decision, could also be sidelined.
Seeing increased looks, Moore stepped up last week to help fill the massive void. Targeted seven times at Denver, the diminutive receiver snagged seven passes for 78 yards. Although smallish in stature, the 5-foot-9, 190-pound wideout has shown marked improvement in several key areas, including route-running, gaining separation and focus. These advancements have Drew Brees' confidence in him growing. Per the Biloxi Sun Herald:
"Lance has done a tremendous job since he's been here especially the last two years filling in wherever he can. He's extremely intelligent, can play every receiver position and he has. Now he's one of those guys that due to injuries we're going to be able to move around quite a bit and he does a very good job of it. For the last few years, I've had all the confidence in the world in him, I really have. He hasn't seemed to get a lot of the opportunities that some of the other guys have until now."
Sean Payton added this week the third-year mitt-flasher could be a major part of the gameplan:
"He's a guy that came up for us big last week. He's consistent and I know he's a guy that the quarterback has a lot of confidence in as do we. He's got real good hands. He's a guy that has to factor in."
Not a premiere downfield threat like teammates Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, Moore will likely be Brees' greaseman on short-to-intermediate pass plays.
Due to the injuries, many pundits project the Saints will install a more balanced offense against San Francisco. But that probably won't happen. Remember this is the NFL's No. 1 passing offense. Despite the setbacks, Brees, who has chucked the pigskin 37.7 times per game this season, will likely throw 32-37 passes. Anticipate at least 7-10 of those attempts to head in Moore's general direction.
Yes, San Francisco is an emerging defense that has allowed just one 60-plus yard receiver this season and the sixth-fewest fantasy points overall to wideouts. But Moore, owned in only five percent of Y! Plus leagues, is an upside bye week filler, especially in PPR leagues.
If you're desperately searching for a viable WR3 in 12-team and deeper leagues, let Sir Lancelot challenge your opponent to an "honor du-el."
Week 4 Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 71 yards, 1 touchdown
Previous Shockers: Hank Baskett (2-102-TD), Brian Griese (160-1-0), James Jones (1 drop, injury)
Who is your Week 4 Shocker Special? Post your selection with projection in the comments section below.
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Image courtesy of US Presswire
Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:25 pm EDT
Each week the Noise will guide desperate, deep-thinking owners into the dark corners of the waiver wire to mine a last-minute diamond. Turn on your helmet light and pack a pickaxe. We're digging for drop-jaw surprises owned in less than 10 percent or started in less than five percent of Yahoo! leagues. The former San Jose State Spartan (my colleague's alma mater) is prepared to make a "300" stand against the Roy Williams-less Cowboys. Sure, many pundits, including the Noise's "Fantasy Football Live" cohorts Brandon Funston and Chris Liss, would argue Williams' absence is a positive for the 'Boys but Aaron Rodgers will undoubtedly take to the air in an attempt to capitalize on Dallas' loss, especially in single coverage. As the scruffy-faced QB told the Green Bay Gazette earlier this week:"When you're facing a 3-4, it's all about communication. They want to single your guys up in one-on-one matchups, and we're trusting those guys to win. I've got a lot of confidence in those guys."
Even Vince Vaughn's character, Trent, from "Swingers" would agree. Jones is a big winner.
Whether Dallas DBs try to contain Packers receivers in man or zone coverage, the Cheeseheads will be unstoppable. Well, at least Donald Driver thinks so. Per the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:
"I think every player in the NFL feels like they have to stop one of us. If they get to the point where they stop me and Greg (Jennings), I promise you James Jones and Ruvell Martin and Jordy Nelson will take care of business. I promise you that one. No one can stop us, we can only stop ourselves. And we know that."
Because Ryan Grant's plaguing hamstring soreness has endured, the Packers ground game will likely again struggle. Dallas' quick, athletic frontline will clog gaps meant for Grant and backup Brandon Jackson to shuttle through. Ultimately, this will force the insanely accurate A-Rod (70.0 completion percentage) airborne to spread the defense and move the chains. Advantage Jones.
Last week against the loathsome Lions, Jones was targeted eight times, the same number of looks as Driver, catching four passes for 29 yards and a score. His plus size, tight route-running skills and fearlessness in traffic will be keys to his fantasy success in a game expected to overflow with tasty statistical outputs.
Mike McCarthy touted Jones a "breakout candidate" in July. This week, the 15-percent owned (three-percent started) receiver launches into the No. 3 limelight. Consider him a strong WR3 in 12-team leagues.
Week 3 Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Who is your Week 3 Shocker Special? Post your deep sleeper projection in the comments section below.
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Picture courtesy of Getty Images
Sat Sep 13, 2008 6:23 pm EDT
Each week the Noise will guide desperate, deep-thinking owners into the dark corners of the waiver wire to mine a last-minute diamond. Turn on your helmet light and pack a pickaxe. We're digging for drop-jaw surprises owned in less than 10 percent or started in less than five percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Whenever Brian Griese stands in front of the locker room urinal, he always hits the bull's eye.
Known for his remarkable accuracy, the Crisco of quarterbacks is poised to accumulate appreciable fantasy returns against the Falcons, much to Jeff Garcia's chagrin. Luckily for the Sam Cassell of the NFL his busty wife is still insanely attractive.
Air execution in Jon Gruden's West Coast scheme is dependent on delievering crisp passes. Given Griese's pinpoint release and heady decision making, he has an excellent opportunity to thrive versus a very young Atlanta coverage duo (Chris Houston and Brent Grimes) that surrendered a 72.7 completion percentage, 262 yards and two touchdowns to Jon Kitna Week 1. Remember, in six starts with the Bears last season, Griese racked a respectable 251.3 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game.
Dirty Birds safety Erik Coleman seems intimidated by Griese's exaggerated greatness. Per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
"Griese is a very intelligent quarterback. He's going to get rid of the ball. He's going to make the right read and he's going to put the receivers in position to make plays. It's definitely a tough assignment."
A strong performance from Griese Sunday may drop serial quarterback dater, Gruden, down on bended knee. With speedsters Joey Galloway and Antonio Bryant presumably at full-strength, the scowl-faced coach should be prepared to pop the question.
Obviously we set the bar insurmountably high with our Hank Baskett call last week, but lightning sometimes does strike twice.
If you're a Matt Schaub (Ike'd) owner scurrying for a replacement or a Carson Palmer (vs. Ten)/Marc Bulger (vs. NYG) backer overly concerned with your QB's matchup, the eight percent owned (one percent started) Buccs slinger might be the swashbuckler you're searching for.
Fearless Forecast: 22-32, 243 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
Post your Week 2 Shocker Special with projection in the comments section below.
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Image courtesy of US Presswire
Sun Sep 07, 2008 1:04 am EDT
Each week the Noise will guide desperate, deep-thinking owners into the dark corners of the waiver wire to mine a last-minute diamond. Turn on your helmet light and pack a pickaxe. We're digging for drop-jaw surprises owned in less than 10 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
A tisket. A tasket. Watch out for Hank Baskett.
Last season, novice fanatics cannonballed into free agent pools to obtusely pick up Eagles receiver Jason Avant after the then second-year wideout unpredictably snagged three passes for 54 yards and a score Week 1 in Green Bay. Although his 11.4 fantasy point outburst was a top-twenty WR performance, he failed to eclipse seven fantasy points in a contest the remainder of the season.
In a way, Avant was the Young MC of 2007's opening weekend.
This year, fellow Philly flapper, Baskett, is in a similar position to "Bust a Move."
With Kevin Curtis out and Reggie Brown expected to stand stationary on the sideline with a disgusted look washed over his face, Baskett, and rookie DeSean Jackson, are poised to see significant targets from Donovan McNabb. Jackson, who is already owned in over 74 percent of Y! leagues (started in 23%), is the obvious plug n' play in 12-team and deeper formats as a No. 3. But for those who relish the challenge of scantily clad leagues, the three percent-owned Baskett could be heaven sent.
Known for his deceptive wheels, the third-year wideout will be able to gain appreciable separation against a Rams secondary that yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers a season ago. Given his wiry 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame he could sneak a critical score for your squad. The 26-year-old is even upbeat about his chances of making a grand first impression:
"I'm feeling very confident right now. It was a pretty good off-season for me and a good training camp."
Fantasy Shallow Hal's (10-team and smaller leagues) shouldn't bother with Baskett. But for those counting on questionable tertiary receivers (e.g. Ronald Curry, Drew Bennett and Robert Meachem), the former Lobo could pack a vicious bite.
Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown
Who's your "Shocker Special" this week? Post your selection with projection in the comments section below.
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Image courtesy of US Presswire
Sat Aug 30, 2008 2:02 pm EDT
Known as the Sacagawea of fantasy primers, the Weekly Rundown guides head-to-head owners through a forest of obscure stats and exploitable matchups in an attempt to help solve lineup conundrums. While reading, keep in mind matchups are subject to change due to managerial moves, unforeseen injuries and Mother Nature's influences.
Note: With our football coverage in full swing, the Rundown will enter warp-speed mode through the rest of the baseball season.
LEADING OFF
Championship-minded owners scratching and clawing for precious points in strikeouts have a Morrow obligation to add the converted Seattle reliever.
Former '06 first-rounder Brandon Morrow is stretched and prepared to enter the Mariners rotation September 5 against the Yankees. Despite posting an ominous 6.51 ERA in 15.2 IP with Triple-A Tacoma, the electrifying 24-year-old is someone to reacquire in deeper leagues. After getting blasted in his final minor league tune-up (4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K), rocky performances could be the norm initially according to Mariners skipper Jim Riggleman. Per MLB.com:
"You know Brandon has raised the bar pretty high in terms of velocity and results, so last night wasn't a great night for him," Riggleman said. "It's going to be a little bit of a hot-and-cold process. He was hot the one before, he wasn't as hot last night. The breaking ball wasn't as effective for him last night as it had been the previous outing, and we look for the next one and then we'll get him here."
Yes, trusting the unseasoned Morrow during the year's most crucial hour is an enhanced risk, but his mouthwatering 11.84 K/9 with the Rainers makes the pursuit worthwhile, especially for owners with comfortable leads in ERA and WHIP.
Equipped with an explosive 95-98 mph fastball, hard-biting slider, splitter and change, the Seattle flamethrower certainly has the stuff to thrive in his new role. However, given his unattractive 0.78 GB/FB ratio (37.2 GB%, 47.4 FB%), long-balls could be problematic away from the cavernous specs of Safeco. Still, most of Morrow's scheduled September starts are very favorable. After tussling with the Yankees Friday and the Angels in LA September 11, he finishes against the soft-hitting Royals (in KC) and A's twice (one away, one home).
Rostered in less than 10 percent of Y! leagues (9.8), Morrow has the stuff and matchups to make a Joban impact on your squad down the homestretch.
Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:03 am EDT
Ask any Lions fan and they'll most certainly tell you Matt Millen was conceived for the sole purpose of investing blindly in overrated collegiate talent. Joey Harrington, Charles Rogers and Mike Williams are just a few draft missteps that floundered spectacularly under his watch.
However, rookie rusher Kevin Smith could rid D-Town of its draft misfortune. Heck, the demonstrative folks at FireMillen.com might be willing to retire their "Sack Matt" t-shirts if he pans out. Ok, that's highly unlikely.
In arguably the deepest, most talented running back class in NFL history, Smith might be in the best situation to instantly produce. Unlike greatly extolled rookies Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall and Ray Rice, he's one of two youngsters (Chicago's Matt Forte the other) not involved in a timeshare. Staving off "Taco" Tatum Bell in camp, the Central Florida product is expected to tote the lion's share of carries in Detroit's reconfigured conservative offense.
With offensive boy genius Mike Martz stroking J.T. O'Sullivan in San Francisco, Rod Marinelli has installed a classic smash-mouth philosophy, which features a Denver-like zone-blocking scheme. Instead of attacking opponents aerially, Marinelli wants to pound opponents into submission. Per the Detroit News:
"What I want is punishment. I want to punish the defense. And I want to take their legs out of them (defenders) so they can't rush. Will we run for 2,000 yards? I don't know. But I want to be physical. I want to make a physical statement with that (offensive) front, and we have to keep pushing the ball up inside."
That dedication to the run combined with the Lions' ability to stretch defenses with Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams is music to Smith owners' ears.
Sun Aug 24, 2008 7:26 pm EDT
To repair what little confidence remains, Matt Leinart better immediately track down a group of questionably-aged whirlpool-canoodling beer-bonging college coeds looking to party.
More importantly, he needs to give pal Nick Lachey a call. Because we all know how soothing Lachey's angelic voice can be.
After an abysmal 4-for-12, 24-yard, three interception showing Saturday against Oakland, the former USC golden boy has reportedly ceded Arizona's starting gig to ageless wonder Kurt Warner. If the speculation is true, it would contradict Ken Whisenhunt's loose post-game endorsement that, despite Leinart's Rex Grossman-like effort, the third-year QB is still his No. 1. Per the Associated Press:
"It wasn't all Matt. I was pleased with the response of our team, the way we responded. Just based on what Matt's done this spring, what he's done this camp, tonight doesn't negate any of that...I know Matt's down because he didn't play as well as he would have liked," Whisenhunt said. "This competition, being pushed by Kurt, has made Matt tougher. It's one of the things you have to be as a quarterback."
For those that have already drafted, Warner, owned in a mere 38 percent of Y! leagues, is someone to acquire promptly via free agency. Assuming the rumors are true, those still waiting to construct teams need to rocket him up draft boards.
At 37, the former Super Bowl MVP is undeniably the John McCain of NFL quarterbacks, but he still delivers a crisp, accurate ball, especially on short-to-intermediate pass plays. With arguably the most talented receiver tandem in the league - Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin - as his primary targets, he could easily yield a top ten return.
Recall that last year after Warner stepped behind center full-time Week 7, he sparkled. From that point on, the Sultan of Stubble averaged 280.8 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per week. And over the final five weeks, the most crucial time of the fantasy season, he tallied a stupid 25.6 fantasy points per game in standard leagues, the highest mark among signal callers.
Sure, durability and persistent fumble problems are concerns, but given the Cardinals' lethal aerial weapons, suspect defense and Warner's terrific skill set, he would be a mid-round oasis. Again assuming Whisenhunt formally changes the guard and Warner stays healthy, expect final totals around 258 YPG, 25-29 touchdowns and 18-21 interceptions.
Leinart owners in deep leagues (12-teams+) should wait for official confirmation, but those in shallower formats shouldn't hesitate to cut ties.
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Image courtesy of AP
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Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:19 pm EDT
Known as the Sacagawea of fantasy primers, the Weekly Rundown guides head-to-head owners through a forest of obscure stats and exploitable matchups in an attempt to help solve lineup conundrums. While reading, keep in mind matchups are subject to change due to managerial moves, unforeseen injuries and Mother Nature's influences.
Note: With our football coverage in full swing, the Rundown will enter warp-speed mode through the rest of the baseball season.
LEADING OFF
Cake, glazed, powdered, sprinkled, jelly, it doesn't matter the doughnut type. Over the past few weeks, Kosuke Fukudome has devoured dozens of sugary pastries in his Ichiro to Shinjo transformation.
Immersed in a detestable 23-for-106 slump (.217 BA) since the All-Star break, Chicago's revered Japanese import is slowly losing his grip on the starting right-field job. His sixteen 0-fers since July 18 has plummeted his average to a season-low .264. Unsurprisingly, he's ranked 108th among outfielder in Y! leagues over the past month.
The culprit behind Fukudome's dramatic downturn is rooted in his deteriorating plate patience. Early in the season, the 31-year-old showed remarkable restraint on outside pitches. He wore down opposing hurlers by fouling off pitches regularly, waiting until a poorly placed ball entered his wheelhouse. Now, he's routinely fallen behind early in counts, which has caused him to weakly nibble at balls off the plate, indicative in his 52.5 GB% over the past 30 days.
Fatigue is likely a contributing factor, but his epic slide is largely due to pitchers learning from advanced scouting reports. As Cubs hitting coach Gerald Perry told MLB.com August 22:
"It's a game of adjustments. They've made an adjustment to [Fukudome], and now he has to make the adjustment to the league. He's still trying to learn everybody in the league."
Two weeks ago Lou Piniella threatened to demote Fukudome, but later backed down. After being a healthy scratch in back-to-back games for the first time this season Thursday and Friday, the portly skipper might be rethinking things. He did return to the lineup Saturday but was slotted into the fantasy unkind eighth position.
Kosuke's massive 'F' bomb is a reminder to fantasy owners that at this point in the season it's critical not to be a slave to surnames. The 82 percent of Fukudome owners in Y! leagues hoping for a rapid rebound better develop a change of heart quick. Wavier alternatives may not be noteworthy 'names,' but unheralded outfielders Chris Dickerson (0.50 percent owned), Denard Span (6.7), Jody Gerut (7.8), Matt Joyce (1.1) and Carlos Gonzalez (0.75) will likely be more productive than K-Fuk during the most crucial time of the season.
With September roster expansions on the horizon, it's time for owners to employ extreme measures in order to regain or cement points in tightly-packed roto categories. That includes cutting ties with fantasy's most over-hyped commodity.
Roto Arcade is a fantasy sports blog edited by Andy Behrens. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.
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