October 11, 2012
The first thing to forget, I suppose, is last week's batch of crummy picks. Oh, I'd take the Steelers over the Eagles again, I don't regret that one. But most of the other losses were beat-the-traffic specials, games buried quickly. The only good thing about a 1-4 week is that it came after a 16-4 start. At 17-8, we trudge forward.
And we'll start with an ugly duckling of a pick: give me Tennessee on Thursday night, plus six (that's the final line in Yahoo! Pro Football Pick'Em, where we draw these numbers from).
The Thursday schedule for 2012 has given us a lot of sloppy games and a lot of low-scoring games; all five of them (counting the Ogletree special that was actually a Wednesday game) have fallen under the total. Perhaps teams can't really game plan as they'd like on a short week, or maybe it's tied to bodies recuperating. Travel is also a factor. Given that this under trend dates back several decades (Spreadapedia lists the under at 176-142-8 through all Thursday games from 1978-2012), I'll accept this being a real thing.
Pittsburgh won't have LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu two major losses. The Steelers rushing defense hasn't been great; maybe Chris Johnson has a chance here. You laugh and justly so, but he did find room against Houston, of all teams, two weeks ago. Kenny Britt also might be ready to make an impact; he's been moving well in practice. I don't need the performance of the century, just keep it close at home. We'll grab the Titans and the points.
The rest of the Week 6 picks will come in a day or two. I welcome your comments below, and on Twitter as well (use the hashtag #throwingdarts).
Last Week: 1-4