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Wed May 20, 2009 12:52 pm EDT

Zack Greinke and the trading block

By Andy Behrens

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__12/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-235417714-1242830472.jpg?ymIqaSBDbrElE1zS

Zack Greinke(notes) is on pace to have the greatest season in baseball history. Let's begin with that. If his next 24 starts look exactly like the first eight, he'll finish the year with a record of 28-4, an ERA of 0.60, eight shutouts and 263 Ks. Right now his ERA+ is 762. The single-season record is 294, and it was established in 1880. Greinke is limiting the walks (10 in 60 innings) and he's completely eliminated home runs (none. Zero. Zip). It should be no surprise that he's the top-ranked player in the Yahoo! game. 

You'll recall that Greinke finished brilliantly in 2008, with 14 scoreless frames. He's 9-1 over his last 10 starts with a 0.49 ERA and 76 Ks in 74 innings. And his games are selling out. (On June 16, the first 20,000 fans at Kauffman Stadium receive the spectacular t-shirt pictured above. Why wouldn't you go? That's clearly road-trip worthy). Of course no one thinks that Greinke's current rates are sustainable. The ace himself seems coolly detached, but not without confidence. This from MLB.com:

"I won't be able to do that every single time out. I mean, I can pitch how I'm pitching, but some balls will fall and some runs will score instead of spreading it out so much. It won't look as good, but I'll probably be pitching the same. Luck's not on your side all year long."

He actually hasn't been outrageously lucky so far (.277 BABIP). Basically he's been crazy-good (1.58 FIP). Greinke is scheduled to face Carl Pavano(notes) and the Tribe tomorrow, so the win probability is high.

Today's question is simple: Is anyone out there shopping him?

The follow-up question is simple, too: What's the most ridiculous offer you've received for Greinke?

Recent Yahoo! deals are all over the map; it's not even worth discussing them. Honestly, it can be argued that Greinke is a buy-high candidate. I've got him on only one team, but at least it's a league where winning is highly incentivized. He's not likely to leave my roster ... but if you've got an argument, please share. This is a discussion, not a lecture.

It's also a vote:

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What to do with Zack Greinke?

View Results »

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Hat tip to Minda Haas re: the shirt. And to the Royals, of course.

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454 Comments

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  1. Hotshots
    1. Posted by Hotshots Wed May 20, 2009 1:04 pm EDT

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    even his off days is still better than most pitchers in the league so I would hold
  2. aint_your_day_noonan
    2. Posted by aint_your_day_noonan Wed May 20, 2009 1:06 pm EDT

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    Is the equivalent of fantasy gold. Hold him and roll on to fantasy victory.
  3. Jay
    3. Posted by Jay Wed May 20, 2009 1:10 pm EDT

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    No way I'm selling, even if he falls back to earth a 2 something ERA is in the works. HUGE value.
  4. cpcaphead
    4. Posted by cpcaphead Wed May 20, 2009 1:11 pm EDT

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    He's got Harden's stuff without the glass arm. As long as he keeps his command together, he's one of the top aces in the league.
  5. cloudcity4
    5. Posted by cloudcity4 Wed May 20, 2009 1:11 pm EDT

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    Hold, hold, hold. Ride him to the fantasy championship.
  6. Richard T
    6. Posted by Richard T Wed May 20, 2009 1:13 pm EDT

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    i dropped him in my keeper league during the off season so sad :(
  7. mrphil84
    7. Posted by mrphil84 Wed May 20, 2009 1:14 pm EDT

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    I'm in a 10x10 H2H league and I offered Braun straight up for him. Grienke's owner didn't even play him the one week recently where Greinke had two starts. He wanted more and I offered a bit more and he responded no chance haha. BTW I know Braun may sound like much but I already have Ibanez, Damon, Quentin, Bourn, and Choo in the OF as well as Utley, Napoli, Howard, Lowell, and M. Young so it felt ok to move him. I tried to stack my SP by getting Greinke to go with Halladay, Buhrle (cliff lee at the time but I traded him and nick johnson for Howard) and Webb when he returns. Then move Buhrle and go with 3 SP's (Webb, Halladay, Greinke). Inning minimum is 25. I do have Escobar but he may end up in relief. Anyways while I think it can be smart to buy high for Grienke I feel a lot of people should be careful about trading too many players especially everday guys. Try and go for middle relivers/set up guys to help in categories like WHIP, ERA, K/BB instead of carrying around an extra starter like John Maine.
  8. potluck
    8. Posted by potluck Wed May 20, 2009 1:14 pm EDT

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    u gotta know when to hold em......
  9. Chris S
    9. Posted by Chris S Wed May 20, 2009 1:19 pm EDT

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    I offered him up for RP(s) in a rotisserie league, but I am in desperate need. (Hawkins, Aardsma, Cruz, Wilson, & Soriano are my relievers)
  10. Neil V
    10. Posted by Neil V Wed May 20, 2009 1:20 pm EDT

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    I want one of those shirts!!! Road trip here i come. Any experts out there, is this the greatest baseball shirt you have seen? if not what is?
  11. AlexV
    11. Posted by AlexV Wed May 20, 2009 1:21 pm EDT

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    I would give linceum, manny(my top 2 picks) and a bag of dortio's for him. Sadly im in a league with all of my friends and co workers and the one whom has Greinke pays absolutely no attention to the league and the other day when i told him he was in firts place he was surprised, and to make things worse. he had no idea who greinke was.
  12. Jay
    12. Posted by Jay Wed May 20, 2009 1:23 pm EDT

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    Chris S, that's just silly. I wouldn't take two closers for Greinke.
  13. Chris H
    13. Posted by Chris H Wed May 20, 2009 1:27 pm EDT

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    Anyone actively shopping him is a rookie at fantasy baseball. Unless the last name is Santana, 1st initial J, no pitcher is better to own. If you are absolutely loaded at SP and horrid at hitting, I suppose - then you could probably upgrade two hitting spots by moving him. If that was the case, I would move him now, before he has a bad outing and his ERA breaks 1.00. Other than that, there will be no way I'd move him. And the bang for the buck for where he was drafted is gonna be unreal at the end of the year.
  14. Turd
    14. Posted by Turd Wed May 20, 2009 1:27 pm EDT

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    I had Volquez last year and Greinke reminds me of his start, sans the walks. I was able to get David Wright for Greinke. Capitalize on the hype.
  15. joseph b
    15. Posted by joseph b Wed May 20, 2009 1:29 pm EDT

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    I turned down an offer for a-rod straight up one for one, but am considering re-offering the same, any thoughts?
  16. RandyK
    16. Posted by RandyK Wed May 20, 2009 1:29 pm EDT

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    what about Grienke and Chipper for Youkiliss and Beckett?
  17. bretteckert99
    17. Posted by bretteckert99 Wed May 20, 2009 1:29 pm EDT

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    I wouldn't trade him unless its a keeper league and could get long term value. He doesn't look like he'll be slowing up this year.
  18. Jake B
    18. Posted by Jake B Wed May 20, 2009 1:30 pm EDT

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    I targetted him in every league but never pulled the trigger. Always wanted to wait one more round
  19. six_ten610
    19. Posted by six_ten610 Wed May 20, 2009 1:30 pm EDT

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    Sell...even if he ends the season with a 2.50 ERA, that'll leave him over 3.00 over the rest of the season. Plus, it's KC...three of his wins have gotten 3 runs or less support, and they lost him a 1-0 game. His W total will be affected by such when he comes down to earth a bit. 10 W, 3+ ERA with solid K/WHIP totals over the rest of the year...very good, but if that was his pace right now this wouldn't even be a topic of discussion.
    Plus, he'll never command a higher price. Go rob whoever owns Webb in your league and get a free bat from him as well.
  20. Kevin
    20. Posted by Kevin Wed May 20, 2009 1:31 pm EDT

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    I reluctantly offered Greinke for Billingsley and Broxton (post Manny suspension) and was shot down. If I can't do any better than that, he stays. I'd say Santana for Greinke would be worth considering from either angle.
  21. Kress
    21. Posted by Kress Wed May 20, 2009 1:31 pm EDT

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    I say sell. I don't think he will keep it up, and even if he does, If someone is offering me a quality consistent player like Morneau or Howard..I'd do it! I think every player is worth selling if someone is willing to give you the right tag.
    Most people bought this guy low and if the right offer is made, I say go for it. I wouldn't be surprised if a similar article was written around this time last season about this AMAZING GEM named Cliff Lee. Where is he now?
  22. Harvey Mushman
    22. Posted by Harvey Mushman Wed May 20, 2009 1:32 pm EDT

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    I sold him last week straight-up for ultra-buy-low candidate, Grady Sizemore, in a 10-team H2H. My pitching was solid, although Grienke made it exceptional. But if I have a chance to trade a pitcher I got in the 13th round for a 1st round hitter, I'm pulling the trigger. No way Grady finishes this far off the pace. And if he turns it around soon (like this week... I hope-I hope-I hope), I get big boosts in every category he touches. Maybe it's because the league is so shallow, but pitchers are like baby $#!#... all over the place.
  23. calvindude
    23. Posted by calvindude Wed May 20, 2009 1:35 pm EDT

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    I traded for greinke three weeks ago, but i payed the price. All in all, i'm doing better than i would have without him, especially pitching.
    but here's the trade: I got - Grienke and Michael Young He got - Ryan Braun, Derek Lowe, Jose Valverde
    The trade has actually helped both parties, but i'm not going to part with grienke any time soon; not when major league history has the added affect of winning my league for me!
  24. abignutsack
    24. Posted by abignutsack Wed May 20, 2009 1:37 pm EDT

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    Sold! Sold! Sold!! This is a textbook case of locking in a profit. A dude above offered Braun for him straight up. I myself just traded him for Braun. Fantasy baseball isn't about specific players; it's about getting the most value from your picks. A couple weeks ago, you could have gotten BJ Upton AND Berkman for Greinke; done. I'm shopping Greinke in all my leagues.
  25. stayhighbeer
    25. Posted by stayhighbeer Wed May 20, 2009 1:37 pm EDT

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    It's May right? SELL The stats will normalize over the course of the real season (June-August) He's at the peak of his value, you could get Timmy or CC + a player for him right now

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