Wed May 23 10:39am EDT
Tucked away in Reno a killer slithers quietly in the grass. This Snake, packed with venom so toxic it could paralyze the opposition with one strike, continues to wind a course of destruction through Double and now Triple-A, leaving victims in its wake bewildered, vexed and completely humbled.
The creature's name: Trevor Bauer.
Every year as spring gives way to summer, insatiable owners with various deficiencies often rest their hopes of a turnaround on unproven, uber-talented prospects with a flair for the spectacular. So far, hitters Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and, most recently, Matt Adams (we hope), materialized from the minors to provide struggling managers with the statistical jolt they so desperately needed.
However, most ballyhooed pitching prospects have failed to do the same.
Jarrod Parker was quite useful over his first three turns yielding just four earned over 20 innings. Sadly since then, spotty command and poor run support have turned him into a stream-only starter. Meanwhile, Colorado southpaw Drew Pomeranz, a top-50 farmhand according to Baseball America, posted a wretched 5.87 BB/9 during his lousy five-game tour with the Rockies.
Bauer, however, is a completely different animal.
Wed May 23 08:45am EDT
In my perfect word, every MLB club would have a knuckleballer on staff, be it as a rotation man or someone to save the bullpen. Heck, most knuckleballers can fulfill both of those roles if you ask.
The reality: we only have one current butterfly artist to enjoy, New York's R.A. Dickey. Let's appreciate this man while he's still around. Better yet, let's see if we can find some roster space for perhaps the National League's most underrated starting pitcher.
Dickey and James McDonald locked up in a dandy pitcher's duel in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, with both men allowing just one run over seven innings. McDonald's power stuff collected eight strikeouts, while Dickey bobbed and weaved to a career-high 11 punchouts. Dickey also got out of dodge with a victory, as the Mets pushed across two deciding runs against Juan Cruz in the top of the eighth.
Dickey has been one of the most reliable arms in our numbers racket this year. He's provided useful stats in all but one of his starts, checking in with six innings or more and three earned runs or less in eight turns. His only messy start came in the rain at Atlanta back in April, an excused absence all the way (cold weather generally hurts the knuckler, and he was up against the NL's second-best offense).
Dickey's solid ERA and WHIP from 2010 (2.84/1.19) and 2011 (3.28/1.23) put him on this spring's radar as a possible late-round selection, but there were two logical reasons why some gamers shied away. Dickey had a mediocre 19-22 record for the Mets over the last two years (part of that is bad luck, part of that is toiling for a sub.-500 team), and his strikeout rate never pushed past the 6.0 mark. It's hard to justify a Circle of Trust spot, or even a preferred streamer spot, to someone who's struggling to get win support and likely to compromise our K/IP ratio.
Tue May 22 08:40am EDT
If you run into Henry Rodriguez sometime this morning, say at a Philly breakfast spot, be cordial. Offer him some juice, let him work on the crossword puzzle. Send a piece of toast his way.
But forget about the caffeine, Rodriguez. Coffee is for closers, only.
The Nationals held on for dear life in Monday's 2-1 victory at Philadelphia, with Rodriguez providing the high-wire act in the ninth (one walk, one hit, one loud out, two wild pitches). The Rocket of Randomness offered 11 erratic tosses before Davey Johnson mercifully pulled the plug. Only four of Rodriguez's pitches were strikes, and the worst four of them sailed to the backstop (two to the opening batter, and two later as the wild pitches).
Rodriguez was actually yanked in the middle of Ty Wigginton's at-bat, the type of substitution you rarely see. Johnson knew the game was getting out of hand. And it's worth noting that the Nationals first raced to the bullpen phone after Rodriguez's second pitch of the inning. It was obvious to everyone that H-Rod simply didn't have it Monday.
Lefty Sean Burnett finished off the handshake, not that he was lights-out, either (11 pitches, four strikes). Burnett picked up the second out on a sacrifice fly, then walked a batter. The game eventually ended on Placido Polanco's soft liner to second base.
Tue May 22 12:13am EDT
Forget "All-Day" or "Purple Jesus." If Adrian Peterson miraculously returns to the field and to All-Pro form September 9 versus Jacksonville, he will simply be known as "Superman."
Approximately six months removed from snapping his ACL and MCL against Washington, Minnesota's supernatural healer is again running, cutting and vaulting up and on top of large leather-bound trunks with few limitations.
Where you at Rashard Mendenhall?
The "Knee Three" — Peterson, Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles — will remain under the microscope as the offseason slowly inches toward the opening of training camps in late July. Each appears to be at a different juncture in their recoveries. JC, who shredded his ACL last September, is 80-percent healthy. Mendenhall, just five months and change removed from his setback, is only jogging lightly. And then there's the alien Peterson. The rusher, whose knee-buckle soured owners' eggnog last Christmas Eve, has overcome incredible odds to get back to basic football activities.
Sun May 20 05:13pm EDT
When there's a Sunday Fantasy Chat based out of Chavez Ravine, the stars come out to play. This should be hotter than "The Merv Griffin Show" in Kramer's apartment. With the Dodgers and Cardinals as our backdrop, it's time to assemble for the greater good.
Fantasy baseball is the main topic for discussion, but the usual diversions of wine, women and song apply. Maybe we'll sneak in a football question, here or there, maybe we'll get philosophical. There's no set path, no set destination.
It's a later start for this week: 7:15 p.m. Pacific Time. When you notice the Dodger fans starting to prematurely head for the exits, that's your queue to come in here.
Make the jump for the chat applet. You've got five hours of tailgating time before we get to work.
Sat May 19 02:31pm EDT
Quick, everyone go to your fantasy league's home page, click the "PLAYERS" tab, filter for "All Pitchers" and "Last 14 Days (total)," then sort the results by "Rank."
Done? Great.
There's a decent chance that the name at the top of your list is Bud Norris, the dude pictured above. He ranks as the No. 5 overall player in fantasy over the past two weeks (and the No. 2 pitcher, behind only Justin Verlander). Norris is currently unowned in 49 percent of Yahoo! leagues, so several thousand of you can add him today, in advance of a two-start week. Norris has tossed four straight quality starts for Houston and he's earned wins in each of his last three games. His ERA so far this month is 0.47, his WHIP is 0.84, and he's struck out 21 batters in 19.0 innings.
Norris had a pretty fair season in 2011, too, so the recent hot streak shouldn't come as a huge surprise. If for some reason you care more about his intangibles than his tangibles, here's a delightful Mic'd Up segment with Bud, via MLB.com. Just please make the add before you watch that clip. Norris gets the Cubs on Monday, and there's no reason to think that won't go well.
Make the jump for all the Week 8 two-start pitchers, ranked and tiered...
Sat May 19 11:53am EDT
Sometimes we try to paint a pretty picture in this space. Other times, it's a color-by-numbers job. Load up the bullets and let's see where they take us.
• Jordan Walden is one player I'd completely walk away from in any mixed league, as I don't anticipate him getting the closing gig back. First and foremost we have to consider how quickly the Angels demoted him from the post — perhaps Walden's 10 blown saves from 2011 left a mark — but the bigger problem for Walden is that his teammates are a lot better than him, at least through the opening quarter of the season.
Jered Weaver cruised through seven San Diego innings Friday (3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 K), then handed the ball to his capable bullpen. Scott Downs worked a perfect eighth (1K, just 12 pitches) and Ernesto Frieri locked up (1BB, 2 K). A stress-free night for Mike Scioscia, especially after the Angels scored three ninth-inning runs to extend the margin (and negate any possible save).
Is there any significance to Downs pitching ahead of Frieri in what was, at the time, a close game? Or was it was a matter of matchups, with Will Venable (lefty, earlier homer) and Chase Headley (better as a lefty) due up first and third in the eighth? The order of pitchers isn't always a flashing red light for us to consider, but I get the idea Frieri has become trustable to the point that he might be sharing the save assignments soon.
The stats back up both of these pitchers. Downs hasn't allowed a run over 12 innings (8 H, 2 BB, 7 K), and Frieri's combined time between the Angels and Padres has been electric (17.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 30 K). It's an interesting contrast between the two — Downs is the control lefty who pitches to a lot of contact, while Frieri is a fireballing righty who piles up the strikeouts but occasionally comes into problems with walks. I wouldn't be surprised if they both get past double-digit saves from here on out, with Scioscia free to play the matchups (something he seems prepared to do). Either way, they're doing a good job blocking Walden from any fantasy relevance.
• A few readers were asking about Adam Wainwright in the previous edition, so let's take up the case here. I'm still in on Wainwright, all the way in. His K/BB rate sits at 2.5 (more than acceptable) and he's inducing ground balls 55.6 percent of the time. His biggest problems have been sequencing (63.6 strand rate) and the gopher ball (21.9 HR/FB). Even if you want to tax Wainwright somewhat for the misplaced fastballs or rolling curves that have left the park, that clip has no shot at continuing.
Fri May 18 12:56pm EDT
Today's Opening Time is a think piece about a mid-level pitcher struggling with his own limitations (and his club's limitations) in the harsh face of stardom. It's in consideration for the front page, but don't tell the Pirates.
Roto Theory has grown up significantly through the years, but sometimes the best rules are the ones you've held from the early days.
Draft hitting early, figure out pitching later. That's been the basic maxim I've been working off for two decades. It's not complicated, maybe it's not marketing-friendly, but it seems to fit the shape of the assignment. Hitting is the more reliable part of the game, while pitching is an unnatural act with a ton of moving parts; mound stars can go down at any reason, and fresh faces emerge at all times.
James McDonald, come on down. It's all happening. Enjoy your membership privileges in the Circle of Trust.
McDonald's incendiary stuff was on full display in his Thursday turn at Washington. He had a no-hitter and 10 strikeouts through five innings before running out of gas in the sixth; the Nats eventually knocked McDonald out with four hits and three runs in that inning. But McDonald still emerged with his third victory and a fantasy line that anyone will happily accept (5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 11 K). Pop in the demo and see what you make of it.
Thu May 17 06:28pm EDT
Another week, another shuffle. Today's assignment is the outfield. You won't find Miguel Cabrera, Cliff Lee or Fernando Rodney on this list: those cats aren't outfielders. And this list does not include players currently on the DL; because injured played have largely-relative values, I don't see the point of ranking them in this exercise. Do what you like. Slot them however you feel comfortable. Pretend Carl Crawford is the cure to all that ails you.
Here's how the shuffle process goes down this year. First, I rank the position in question, from scratch. I don't look at preseason ranks, I don't look at last month's ranks — those collections are dead to me. All I'm trying to do is figure out how I arrange the commodities from today-forward. (Don't obsess over the specific dollar amounts, all that matters is how the players relate to one another. Assume a 5x5 roto scoring system.)
Then, I take some distance from the ranks. A good meal, maybe a burrito and a margarita or two. You don't want to be too close to the first draft. Finally, I come back from dinner, tweak a ranking or two, add some comments, and interact with you fine folks.
Sound good? Bueno. Make the jump, and let's try to figure out this made-up world of stats, together. (Off to the cantina. Back shortly.)
Thu May 17 05:27pm EDT
Before his season was derailed by a fractured foot last December, DeMarco Murray was one of fantasy football's rising stars. Incumbent Felix Jones, presumably constructed from tissue paper and held together by Scotch tape, again failed to deliver meaningful numbers due to physical setbacks, thrusting the rookie into the spotlight. Though he crossed the chalk only once in seven starts, Murray racked up an impressive 104.5 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per touch as the primary rusher, quickly developing into a reliable RB2 in 12-teamers. He also ranked ninth in yards after contact per attempt among qualified rushers, an excellent indicator of his physicality and game-breaking abilities.
This offseason, followers have clogged the Noise's Twitter log with questions about Murray's status and perceived draft day value. Earlier this week, fanatics finally received some clarity. The Cowboy is officially back in the saddle. From the Dallas Morning News:
Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray said Monday that the ankle injury that prematurely ended his standout rookie season has healed and he has been cleared by team doctors.
"It's great," Murray told ESPN's SportsCenter. "I've been officially cleared by our doctors and I've been doing everything the past month or two without any limitations. I feel great."
Assuming he enters camp at full speed, Murray will be the 'Boys' undisputed lead dog this season. Because he's an explosive open-field runner with plus hands and has very little competition, he could net close to 300 total touches, making him a high-end RB2 in almost any format. His current Round 2 price point (14.8 ADP) is accurate.
The Dallas offensive line is a work in progress, but Big D's potent passing attack should greatly enhance the ground game's overall execution. At this point, consider Murray a borderline top-10 back who could easily join the position's elites with a full, healthy season.
Fantasy Minute: Tight ends in trouble
Posted May 23 2012
Fantasy Minute: Most valuable closer?
Posted May 23 2012
Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher of the week (May 21)
Posted May 21 2012
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