Shuffle Up and Deal: Ranking Josh Johnson and 139 other pitchers

Of all the Shuffle Ups we work on here, this might be the most important – the men on the mound. They thrill us with strikeouts and shutouts, they clobber us with homers allowed and trips to Dr. James Andrews. They're famous and they're fickle, they make our summer and they ruin our season. If you could have one perfect answer key in this game, you'd want it on the mound.

Assume a 5x5 scoring system, as always. What's happened to this point is just an audition – the list below is how I'd rank these guys if I were in a new draft right now. Your intelligent and respectful disagreement is welcome in the comments, so long as you bring some reasoning to the table. Let's iron out this list together, make it a win-win.

And remember, a player doesn't gain 20 percent of bonus value just because you own him.

$33 Josh Johnson (notes)
$32 Adam Wainwright (notes)
$31 Roy Halladay (notes)
$31 Ubaldo Jimenez (notes)
$30 Felix Hernandez (notes)
$30 Jon Lester (notes)
$30 Cliff Lee (notes)
$29 Tim Lincecum (notes)
$28 CC Sabathia (notes)

Comments: There shouldn't be too many major debates in the top tier, just stylistic differences. … Consistency puts Johnson and Wainwright at the top of my list; I want my high-ticket arms to be virtual locks to give me a positive start every time out, and these guys more than anyone are exactly that in 2010 . . King Felix rebounded nicely from his mess in Texas six weeks back, but the Mariners offense isn't offering any favors. … The Red Sox certainly made a shrewd move when they locked up Lester at a very reasonable rate 16 months ago. It's silly to think of what he makes compared to some of the other big names on the Boston roster. He'll have a Cy Young on his mantle sometime in the next five years, book it. … If you want to put a higher price on Lincecum, I won't argue against you. But if you look at it objectively, he has dipped mildly from his 2008-09 level (lower strikeout rate, higher walk rate, FIP over 3). It's still an elite level, mind you, just not an unmatched one.

$27 Yovani Gallardo (notes)
$26 Jered Weaver (notes)
$25 Justin Verlander (notes)
$24 Clayton Kershaw (notes)
$24 Mat Latos (notes)
$23 Chris Carpenter (notes)
$23 Stephen Strasburg (notes)
$23 David Price (notes)
$22 Johan Santana (notes)
$22 Zack Greinke (notes)
$22 Matt Cain (notes)
$21 Cole Hamels (notes)
$21 Roy Oswalt (notes)
$21 Francisco Liriano (notes)

Comments: Latos over Strasburg might look funny, but we know for sure that Strasburg is headed for an innings shutdown, but we can't be sure of that with Latos. Heck, the brief Latos DL stint might have been the team's way of keeping some gas in the tank for the September run; the Padres certainly look like they're going to be in the race the rest of the way. … Verlander's pitch counts tend to run up quickly, in part because of the regular foul balls he seems to induce. If he could be a touch more efficient, he'd make a run at the top tier. … I don't want to hear a peep about Cain's "lucky" HR/FB rate; he's easily beaten the industry average for six consecutive seasons. In my view, a lot of pundits spend too much time comparing star pitchers against the league average in this stat when they should be looking at a pitcher's established level. Said a different way, Matt Cain isn't lucky, and Aaron Harang (notes) isn't unlucky. With very few exceptions, the best pitchers in baseball find a way to keep the ball in the park, and Cain's doing that, at home and on the road.

$20 Dan Haren (notes)
$19 Tim Hudson (notes)
$19 John Danks (notes)
$19 Ricky Nolasco (notes)
$19 Jaime Garcia (notes)
$18 Tommy Hanson (notes)
$18 Ryan Dempster (notes)
$18 Matt Garza (notes)
$18 Phil Hughes (notes)
$18 Clay Buchholz (notes)
$18 Ervin Santana (notes)
$18 Trevor Cahill (notes)

Comments: The Diamondbacks would love to move Haren, but is there enough cohesion in the current front office to get a deal done? … Garcia's production to this point suggests a higher price, but we have to be careful with a young pitcher treading into new innings territory. … You'd like to see a higher strikeout rate with Cahill, but he's got that pretty ground-ball tendency and all of his pitches move. He's legit.

$17 Jonathan Sanchez (notes)
$17 Ted Lilly (notes)
$16 Josh Beckett (notes)
$16 Chad Billingsley (notes)
$16 Ricky Romero (notes)
$16 Carl Pavano (notes)
$16 C.J. Wilson (notes)
$15 Jeff Niemann (notes)
$15 Javier Vazquez (notes)
$15 Colby Lewis (notes)
$15 Barry Zito (notes)
$15 Hiroki Kuroda (notes)
$15 Johnny Cueto (notes)
$15 Jair Jurrjens (notes)
$15 Shaun Marcum (notes)
$15 Max Scherzer (notes)
$14 James Shields (notes)
$14 Gavin Floyd (notes)
$14 Brett Anderson (notes)
$14 Madison Bumgarner (notes)
$14 Vicente Padilla (notes)

Comments: Pitchers returning from injury are always the hardest to rank, and I can't go too high on Beckett given his career history against AL East foes an in Fenway Park. Beckett's career ERA in Boston is 4.66, and against the Yankees he's got an ERA just under 6. … Pavano's ground-ball spike validates much of what he's accomplished this year, and I'm impressed that his road numbers are even better than his Target-aided stats. … A healthy Anderson would certainly be ranked in a higher tier, but we need to see some proof first.

$13 Clayton Richard (notes)
$13 Jason Vargas (notes)
$13 Jonathon Niese (notes)
$13 Brett Myers (notes)
$13 Kris Medlen (notes)
$12 Wandy Rodriguez (notes)
$12 Edinson Volquez (notes)
$12 Jorge De La Rosa (notes)
$12 Tommy Hunter (notes)
$12 R.A. Dickey (notes)
$12 Fausto Carmona (notes)
$12 Gio Gonzalez (notes)
$12 Brandon Morrow (notes)
$12 Jason Hammel (notes)
$11 Joel Pineiro (notes)
$11 Bronson Arroyo (notes)
$10 John Lackey (notes)
$10 Andy Pettitte (notes)
$10 Scott Baker (notes)
$10 A.J. Burnett (notes)
$10 Mike Leake (notes)
$10 Anibal Sanchez (notes)
$10 Tom Gorzelanny (notes)

Comments: The only disaster start Dickey has given us all season came in Puerto Rico. We've got 79 innings of evidence now, he deserves some fantasy leash. … Burnett's upside keeps his price somewhat afloat, but let's just say this – I'm glad I don't own him. … Hunter is a pitch-to-contact guy but that wasn't a bad thing at Detroit a few days ago; his infield put on a clinic. … Don't be fooled by Arroyo's wins and solid ERA, it's not backed by the secondary numbers at all. I've got him in one key league and I'd love to him to turn in a strong second half, following his career path, but you have to worry about the bottom dropping out. … One of Lou Piniella's poorest decisions this year was booting Gorzelanny out of the Chicago rotation.

$9 Daisuke Matsuzaka (notes)
$9 Ian Kennedy (notes)
$8 Derek Lowe (notes)
$8 Kevin Slowey (notes)
$8 Edwin Jackson (notes)
$7 Mike Pelfrey (notes)
$7 Carlos Silva (notes)
$7 Doug Fister (notes)
$7 Freddy Garcia (notes)
$6 Randy Wells (notes)
$6 Livan Hernandez (notes)
$5 Jeremy Hellickson (notes)
$5 Jon Garland (notes)
$5 Brett Cecil (notes)
$5 Travis Wood (notes)
$5 Justin Masterson (notes)

Comments: I've collapsed the price on Pelfrey but I'm not willing to completely write him off yet. There's still plenty to like here, a pedigree and a big park. … If you watch Masterson pitch on the right day, you'll swear he's going to be a star in a year or two. Unfortunately, he has plenty of wrong days, too, and he's still got that problem against left-handed hitters. … Livan Hernandez is a little like that big dog across the street. You think for a second you could pat him, make friends, but you know your ERA and WHIP could be chewed to shreds at any second.

$4 Mark Buehrle (notes)
$4 Dallas Braden (notes)
$4 Joe Blanton (notes)
$4 Vin Mazzaro (notes)
$3 Ben Sheets (notes)
$3 Rick Porcello (notes)
$3 J.A. Happ (notes)
$3 Aaron Harang
$3 Wade Davis (notes)
$3 Wade LeBlanc (notes)
$3 Hisanori Takahashi (notes)
$3 Homer Bailey (notes)
$3 Barry Enright (notes)
$3 Ross Ohlendorf (notes)

Comments: If Mazzaro can tweak that strikeout rate up a spec, I'll promote him soon enough. You're always looking for excuses for the Oakland pitchers, buoyed by that huge home park. … The Phillies will probably have to give Happ a shot sooner or later. Jamie Moyer (notes) is going to need an extended stay on the disabled list and Pedro Martinez (notes) has written off a 2010 comeback. … Just what has to happen before you talk yourself into Homer Bailey? Is this a Kool-Aid thing? Special glasses? Better yet, don't tell me.

$2 Rich Harden (notes)
$2 Paul Maholm (notes)
$2 Mitch Talbot (notes)
$2 Jeff Francis (notes)
$2 Brian Duensing (notes)
$2 Jeremy Bonderman (notes)
$2 Dave Bush (notes)
$2 Bruce Chen (notes)
$1 Kevin Correia (notes)
$1 Randy Wolf (notes)
$1 Brian Matusz (notes)
$1 Chris Young
$1 Derek Holland (notes)
$1 Armando Galarraga (notes)
$1 Jake Arrieta (notes)
$1 James McDonald (notes)
$0 Scott Kazmir (notes)
$0 Brad Penny (notes)
$0 Scott Feldman (notes)
$0 Joe Saunders (notes)
$0 Bud Norris (notes)
$0 Zach Duke (notes)
$0 Rodrigo Lopez (notes)
$0 Jake Westbrook (notes)
$0 Chris Tillman (notes)
$0 Sergio Mitre (notes)
$0 J.D. Martin (notes)
$0 Manny Parra (notes)
$0 Chris Capuano (notes)
$0 Aaron Laffey (notes)
$0 Jeff Karstens (notes)