Roto Arcade - Fantasy

Here's a look at all the starting-pitching options that look ownable in a mixed league right now. What's happened on the field to this point is merely an audition; what's below, in theory, would be my cheat-sheet if I had a new draft tonight. Players at the same cost are essentially even, and assume a 5x5 format, as always.

Next week I'll price the outfielders. Your respectful and intelligent disagreement is welcome in the comments, as always.

$30 Tim Lincecum(notes)
$28 Zack Greinke(notes)
$28 Roy Halladay(notes)
$28 Dan Haren(notes)
$26 Chad Billingsley(notes)
$26 Johan Santana(notes)
$26 Yovani Gallardo(notes)
$25 Josh Beckett(notes)
$25 Chris Carpenter(notes)
$25 Jon Lester(notes)
$24 CC Sabathia(notes)
$24 Justin Verlander(notes)
$23 Felix Hernandez(notes)
$22 Josh Johnson(notes)
$22 Javier Vazquez(notes)
$21 Cliff Lee(notes)
$21 Matt Cain(notes)
$20 Matt Garza(notes)
$20 James Shields(notes)

We're all flying blind on Santana. He just had the worst full month of his career. I know all about regression to the mean, but what if there's an injury here? I've called all my scouting and double-secret probation favors on this one, no one knows. … I tried to get Billingsley in all of my leagues and went 0-for. That's not fun. … If I knew Carpenter wouldn't break all year, he'd be a lot higher. But health is a skill, too. … Cain still walks too many guys and he's been cheating his peripherals all season. He's on my two most important teams, but if a good offer came along, I'd be selling.

$19 Cole Hamels(notes)
$18 Adam Wainwright(notes)
$18 Jered Weaver(notes)
$17 Rich Harden(notes)
$17 Joba Chamberlain(notes)
$17 Roy Oswalt(notes)
$17 Johnny Cueto(notes)
$16 Aaron Harang(notes)
$16 Carlos Zambrano(notes)
$16 A.J. Burnett(notes)
$16 Ted Lilly(notes)
$16 Edwin Jackson(notes)
$15 Clayton Kershaw(notes)
$15 Ricky Nolasco(notes)
$14 Wandy Rodriguez(notes)
$14 Tommy Hanson(notes)
$14 Scott Baker(notes)
$14 John Danks(notes)
$14 Gavin Floyd(notes)

Hamels has been just as frustrating as Santana, for different reasons. Did the 2008 workload (October included) take a toll? Maybe the early-season nicks were a blessing, he'll be fresh down the stretch. … Anytime you're ready, Joba. I'm giving you one more month to thrill us. … Nolasco's been a completely different guy since his demotion and he's passed the eye test as well. … Kershaw can't be priced as an elite arm until he learns how to work deeper in games. It's hard to get wins with all those early exits.

$13 Erik Bedard(notes)
$13 Mark Buehrle(notes)
$13 John Lackey(notes)
$13 Jair Jurrjens(notes)
$12 Max Scherzer(notes)
$12 Randy Wolf(notes)
$12 Ubaldo Jimenez(notes)
$12 Scott Kazmir(notes)
$12 Kevin Millwood(notes)
$11 Derek Lowe(notes)
$11 Edinson Volquez(notes)
$11 Kevin Slowey(notes)
$10 Jake Peavy(notes)
$10 Ryan Dempster(notes)
$10 Aaron Cook(notes)
$10 David Price(notes)
$9 Gil Meche(notes)
$9 Ricky Romero(notes)
$8 Francisco Liriano(notes)
$8 Jarrod Washburn(notes)
$8 Jordan Zimmermann(notes)

Lowe's never been a strikeout guy, but 2009 marks the lowest K/9 of his career, tied to a walk spike. What about the sinker, you say? It's the worst GB percentage of his career, too. I watched every pitch the other night and his command was a problem - he's not putting pitches where he wants them, and batters are taking advantage. At least the AL starts are over; the other league roughed him up. But I'm not optimistic here at all. … So many things are in line for Zimmerman to push forward in the second half (K/IP, FIP far under actual ERA), go get him low. … Everyone tells you to sell high on Millwood (us included), but who's buying? If you're got a story from the front lines, share it please.

$7 Ervin Santana(notes)
$7 Joe Saunders(notes)
$7 Randy Johnson(notes)
$7 Hiroki Kuroda(notes)
$7 Jason Marquis(notes)
$6 Chris Young
$6 Andy Pettitte(notes)
$6 Jose Contreras(notes)
$6 John Smoltz(notes)
$6 Dallas Braden(notes)
$5 Zach Duke(notes)
$5 Brad Bergesen
$5 Phil Hughes(notes)
$5 Kevin Correia(notes)
$5 Brandon Morrow
$4 Chad Gaudin(notes)
$4 Paul Maholm(notes)
$4 Felipe Paulino(notes)
$4 Chris Volstad(notes)
$4 Vin Mazzaro(notes)
$4 Chien-Ming Wang(notes)
$4 Rick Porcello(notes)
$4 Randy Wells(notes)
$4 Nick Blackburn(notes)
$4 John Lannan(notes)

Home/road splits aren't always reliable or worth applying, but I do think Pettitte belongs in the skim file right now. … Hughes is going to be needed for an important role in New York, eventually. … The second and third time around the league might be catching up to Porcello, not to mention all the bats he's hitting. I love his future, but bumps for 2009 are ahead.

$3 Carl Pavano(notes)
$3 Brad Penny(notes)
$3 Joel Pineiro(notes)
$3 Doug Davis(notes)
$3 Koji Uehara(notes)
$3 Clay Buchholz(notes)
$3 Scott Richmond(notes)
$3 Jeff Niemann(notes)
$3 J.A. Happ(notes)
$3 Jason Hammel(notes)
$2 Luke Hochevar(notes)
$2 Trevor Cahill(notes)
$2 Sean West(notes)
$2 John Maine(notes)
$2 Russ Ortiz(notes)
$2 Barry Zito(notes)
$2 Kenshin Kawakami(notes)
$2 Glen Perkins(notes)
$2 Mike Pelfrey(notes)
$2 Jorge De La Rosa(notes)

Ortiz has been handy for a month now, but given the back story I'm petrified to let him even sit on my bench. … I let Citi Field talk me into a deep-league Pelfrey here and there. I didn't realize the Mets wouldn't take defense seriously. … You're Charlie Brown, and Hochevar is Lucy with the Football. Good luck with that.

$1 Tim Wakefield(notes)
$1 Brian Tallet(notes)
$1 Brett Anderson(notes)
$1 Jamie Moyer(notes)
$1 Micah Owings(notes)
$1 Bronson Arroyo(notes)
$1 Jonathan Sanchez(notes)
$1 Dave Bush(notes)
$1 Sean Marshall(notes)
$1 Todd Wellemeyer(notes)
$1 Jason Vargas(notes)

Carlos Carrasco(notes)? Let's see a start first. Self-service on the singletons. I'll catch you in the comments.

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