July 17, 2009
This helps explain the fact that Martinez -- coming off a 5.61 ERA/1.57 WHIP season -- is owned in 29 percent of PLUS leagues. There's no serious cost involved in owning him. If the early returns are poor, launch him before he has a chance to seriously hurt your team. The upside, of course, is that you might get something close to the 2006 version of Pedro: 4.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.29 K/9.
Last year, Martinez allowed walks and homers at uncharacteristically high rates (3.63 BB/9, 1.57 HR/9) and he gave up at least four ER in six of his final seven starts. He won't find himself in the most pitcher-friendly home environment in '09, but it helps that he remains in the National League, in a division that's hardly intimidating while the Mets are damaged. He's also talking a good game, which is expected. His velocity isn't special -- "Martinez threw mostly in the high 80s, but topped 91 mph in workouts" -- but he's had previous success in the N.L. with a fastball that averaged 87-88 mph.
projected fearlessly forecasted the following rest-of-season stats for Martinez in this week's Noise: 79 IP, 6 W, 4.97 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 63 Ks. I'll take the under on innings-pitched, but I'll also take the under on those ratios. Put me down for something like this: 67 IP, 6 W, 4.30 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 59 Ks.
Looking ahead at the Phillies' August schedule, this could be the comeback scenario: at SF, vs. FLA, at ATL, vs. ARI, at PIT, vs. ATL. Not too intimidating, really.
When asked for a knee-jerk Pedro projection, Pianowski went aggressive: 72 IP, 5 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 55 Ks.
That set of numbers would be worth rostering. Anyone feel more bullish? Or significantly less? Anyone just have a favorite Pedro moment to share? Please comment...
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