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Tue May 19, 2009 11:22 am EDT

Need steals? San Diego's Chris Young is here to help

By Andy Behrens

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__12/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-731922921-1242746380.jpg?ymMIGSBDVkA71QAqBreaking news from the Dept. of Things We Should Have Told You Yesterday: Chris Young is scheduled to oppose Barry Zito(notes) tonight, so it's a good time to get any ambulatory Giants in the lineup.

As Dave Cameron wrote earlier this year over at Fangraphs, Young is worse at limiting steals than anyone else in MLB is at ... well, at anything. In four seasons with the Padres, Young has allowed 115 stolen bases in 121 attempts. Over the past three years, baserunners are 74-for-76 against him. That's an absurd 97.4 percent success rate. He's allowed 15 stolen bases already this year, the highest total in the majors. He finished atop the league in 2007 (44) and 2006 (41), too. The dude is 6-10 and his delivery is rather slow.

You'll recall that Dexter Fowler(notes) had five steals against Young in three-plus innings back in April. These were Ryan Spilborghs'(notes) post-game comments to the Denver Post:

"It was perfect," Ryan Spilborghs said. "We talked about it right before the game and I told Dexter, 'If you get on base with [Young] — because he's kind of slow to the plate — just go ahead and run. Just run until they stop you.' I don't think they ever stopped him. I think he's still running." 

There are conflicting views about the strategic value of the stolen base, but it's tough to argue that you shouldn't run when the likelihood of success is greater than 95 percent. Emmanuel Burriss(notes), we're lookin' at you. Just find a way to get on base.

It's no easy trick to stream for stolen bases, but you can definitely pick on Young. Tim Wakefield(notes) (5/19 vs. TOR), Gavin Floyd(notes) (5/22 vs. PIT), Kevin Millwood(notes) (5/21 at DET), and Daniel Cabrera(notes) (5/21 vs. PIT) are generous as well, but they're not quite in Young's class.

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Photo via AP Images

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61 Comments

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  1. Mark G
    1. Posted by Mark G Tue May 19, 2009 11:33 am EDT

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    What's your thoughts on Chris Young for the rest of the year? Is he someone I should only start when he pitches at home and against inferior teams?
  2. Mark G
    2. Posted by Mark G Tue May 19, 2009 11:34 am EDT

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    Terrible grammar by me on that post.
  3. Brad
    3. Posted by Brad Tue May 19, 2009 11:40 am EDT

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    I wonder if Ortiz could steal off of Young?
    Oh wait, he'd have to actually get on base to find out.... and be in the National League..
    I guess we'll never know..
  4. Neil V
    4. Posted by Neil V Tue May 19, 2009 11:51 am EDT

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    Any other Twins fans out there glad to see us leaving the Bronx?
  5. Lee Majors
    5. Posted by Lee Majors Tue May 19, 2009 12:01 pm EDT

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    Just as a general rule, you shouldn't conclude on May 19 -- based on 43 innings of work -- that someone is going to have a severe home/away split which lasts all season. But obviously Young's home park is pitcher-friendly, so you always feel better about him in San Diego.
    He's not a guy that I would start every time he takes the hill, but I wouldn't set a firm only-start-at-home rule, either. I'd avoid him at Coors for sure, but he'll get a bunch of friendly match-ups in the NL West. No need to fear the Giants or D-Backs right now.
  6. Mark G
    6. Posted by Mark G Tue May 19, 2009 12:13 pm EDT

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    Thanks Andy, your work is much appreciated and your insight is very helpful.
    I traded Young for Jered Weaver early in the season and I am beginning to regret that decision.
  7. mrphil84
    7. Posted by mrphil84 Tue May 19, 2009 12:26 pm EDT

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    The D-backs and Marlins game being postponed sure hurt Felipe Lopez owner's such as myself losing out on his SB and some hits. I've got Bourn fortunately and Damon may grab a few bags but guys who are useful beyond their steals are hard to come by.
  8. Wang Chung
    8. Posted by Wang Chung Tue May 19, 2009 12:32 pm EDT

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    Very thankful for Burriss right now since Mike Fontenot and Kelly Johnson have fallen off a cliff.
  9. Mike V
    9. Posted by Mike V Tue May 19, 2009 12:33 pm EDT

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    Bengie is gonna steal at least 2 off him......
  10. MatthewK
    10. Posted by MatthewK Tue May 19, 2009 12:45 pm EDT

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    since we're mentioning 2nd basemen, what is the blog community's opinion on Jose Lopez. Kind of slow start, anyone here dumping him for burriss or one of the other marginal players...
  11. sam k
    11. Posted by sam k Tue May 19, 2009 12:47 pm EDT

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    What's up with Bucs' closer Capps? After giving up only 18 runs all of last year, he's already surrendered 11 a quarter of the way through 2009...is he battling any arm issues?
  12. Pedro C
    12. Posted by Pedro C Tue May 19, 2009 12:49 pm EDT

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    hope sandoval gets a couple..
  13. Xobai
    13. Posted by Xobai Tue May 19, 2009 12:49 pm EDT

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    This was posted a week ago by the Young owner in my money league:
    "Perhaps the only reason I'm not in last place this year is my brilliant decision of when Chris Young pitches. The 6'10" ivy leaguer, while posting an upto the first inning of tonights game era of 5.31, has posted a team log of 1.34 era and 1.03 WHIP. Brilliantly sitting Young in Colorado, Philadelphia, and Chicago.... nortorious for fly balls going out of the park as a fly ball pitcher I avoided 18 earned runs so far. In Chicago I was most notably worried about Soriano, a FB hitter, who lead off the game with a homer. "
    So according to him, you sit the fly ball pitcher when he's in a small park. Sounds logical to me.
  14. IceBerg
    14. Posted by IceBerg Tue May 19, 2009 12:50 pm EDT

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    Too long; didn't read.
  15. deepseed11355
    15. Posted by deepseed11355 Tue May 19, 2009 12:55 pm EDT

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    that picture, mr. behrens, made me laugh like a crazed chicken
  16. Griffin B
    16. Posted by Griffin B Tue May 19, 2009 12:56 pm EDT

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    This was a day too late. I was making a drop to activate Youkilis for his activation on Wednesday and I could have easily picked up and spot started Burress for the game tonight in place of the slumping Uggla and then dropped Burress after the game for the Youk activation. Damn you Yahoo and your procrastinated insight.
  17. snwboard05
    17. Posted by snwboard05 Tue May 19, 2009 1:00 pm EDT

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    That first sentence sums it up, this would have been an excellent column in yesterday's roto arcade. I'll admit, if we're claiming to be decent owners we should know these things ourselves, but a reminder would have been much appreciated.
  18. Leonidas
    18. Posted by Leonidas Tue May 19, 2009 1:02 pm EDT

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    Griffin B, why don't you do some of your own research and not rely on Yahoo for a steals stream. How can anyone actually count on a steals stream. Emmanuel Burriss should not be rostered on any team in less than a 12-team mixed league, so if you want you can go ahead and pick up Rod Mackowiack if you want too. Do some research. How's that for insight?
  19. Shucky
    19. Posted by Shucky Tue May 19, 2009 1:03 pm EDT

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    Traded Fonte-no and Smelly Kelly within days of our NL only draft. I just had a feeling. Too bad I traded little lord Fontenot for Daniel "I'm no Dale" Murphy.
  20. sethbeno
    20. Posted by sethbeno Tue May 19, 2009 1:06 pm EDT

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    Sometimes, you have to pee in the sink.
  21. Lee Majors
    21. Posted by Lee Majors Tue May 19, 2009 1:07 pm EDT

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    I was in the park for that Cubs-SD game, and the wind was blowing out at a million miles an hour. There was actually a tornado watch in effect. You just knew that was going to be ugly; Lilly gave pretty much the greatest six-inning, three-run performance you'll ever see.
    A question: Why does anyone pitch to Adrian Gonzalez, ever?
  22. Xobai
    22. Posted by Xobai Tue May 19, 2009 1:13 pm EDT

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    Daniel Murphy was a good player to own until about two weeks ago. It's just that he hasn't had a hit in 10 games, he's lost more than 40 points off his average, and he's losing plate appearances to Sheff going forward.
    I second the "do your own research" sentiment. if you're going to stream, you have to be aware of the matchups a day in advance and what you can take advantage of. If you're not already looking at tomorrow's games, then you're not going to stream and you have no room to complain when an article comes out a day late.
  23. Muscles
    23. Posted by Muscles Tue May 19, 2009 1:13 pm EDT

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    5/30
    Fowler is scheduled to face Young again.
  24. Xobai
    24. Posted by Xobai Tue May 19, 2009 1:15 pm EDT

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    And BTW, Evans' Weekly Rundown does a great job of looking at the coming week. If you watch that information carefully, you'll be have a golden stream running all over your league.
  25. Xobai
    25. Posted by Xobai Tue May 19, 2009 1:16 pm EDT

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    ...except without the "be" in the middle of it.

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