Roto Arcade - Fantasy

On Sundays, I watch football and take notes. On Mondays, I come here and whip up a ghoulash. Sit down for a spell and let's digest Week 11.

There's a lot of fantasy frustration buzzing about with the Pierre Thomas(notes) situation in New Orleans, but don't pin all the blame on Sean Payton. Save a little bit for yourself, PT owner.

Our numbers racket isn't limited to scouting the players – our make-believe thing is about situations, game flow, coaching tendencies and the like. Yes, Thomas sure looks like the best back in New Orleans, he's jumped off the screen for two years now. But let's stop acting surprised when Thomas doesn't get a host of carries in any given game. Thomas is averaging just 13 carries per start in 2009, and he hasn't hit the 20 mark yet. For whatever reason, Payton doesn't want to burden Thomas with a heavy workload, and he keeps funneling scoring chances to his other backs (that's Mike Bell(notes) leaping to glory above, and Reggie Bush(notes) was on a touchdown binge before sitting out in Week 11).

Mind you, if Bell keeps doing the airborne thing 2-3 times a game, he'll have a hard time staying healthy for the balance of the year. And perhaps Payton is just looking to keep Thomas fresh, mindful of the fact that the Saints might have to play full-out for all 17 weeks to secure the NFC's top seed. Heavier touch counts might be ahead for Thomas if things break right, but at this point in time, it doesn't look like Payton will go in that direction by choice. Accept it for what it is.

Kansas City's victory over Pittsburgh was a fun game and it added some juice to 2009 Survivor, but let's not misread the flukiness factor at play. Pittsburgh had 27 first downs, KC had 13. The Steelers outgained the Chiefs, 401-214. While you credit the Chiefs for forcing three turnovers and scoring on special teams, it's more important to be able to matriculate the ball down the field (or stop the other guys from doing the same). Look for order to be restored next week – San Diego will beat Kansas City soundly.

Be careful not to overstate a possible "shutdown corner" matchup as you're choosing your fantasy receivers. Yes, Darrelle Revis(notes) did follow Randy Moss(notes) for most of Sunday, but that didn't keep Moss from collecting 11 targets and a touchdown. The previous week, Mike Sims-Walker(notes) was pretty much held down by Revis, but he was able to score on a play where Revis wasn't covering him. It takes more than one good coverage man to present a nasty matchup.

Also consider that a lot of star cornerbacks stay on the same side of the field and cover whomever lines up opposite them, and every team plays zone coverage much of the time. Forget the days of the 1-on-1 matchup, all day, every snap – that's very rare in the current game.

Jeff Fisher took a lot of heat for waiting so long to get Vince Young(notes) back in the starting lineup, and it's easy to jump on that delayed decision as the Titans play well behind Young (3-0 so far, and tied with the Texans at halftime as I post this). But keep in mind the shift from Kerry Collins(notes) to Young is a radical shift in offensive personality – heck, it's really a 180 for the entire organization – and in order to have Young best prepared to play and be successful, the move really had to wait for Tennessee's off week. The NFL is a "fix it now!" sort of league, but I'm starting to accept that Fisher was right to wait on the change.

Chris Johnson's recent rampage is partly due to the switch as well; defenses have to scheme differently when the mobile Young is in the game. Obviously Johnson is going to be a star in any system, but it sure looks like his best form comes out when it's the Young offense on the field.

It's important for a quarterback to take care of the ball, but you can't do it at the expense of big plays. Said another way, Jay Cutler's(notes) line Sunday night (24-for-43, 171 yards, one endgame pick) does not represent progress.

Did you catch Buffalo absolutely butchering the clock at the end of the first half at Jacksonville? Interim head coach Perry Fewell comes from a defensive background, not that there's any excuse for how the Bills handled that situation.

Roy Williams should donate his hands to the diamond industry.

Let's look at the facts with this Antonio Gates(notes) situation. In 16 of his last 18 games, he's been held out of the end zone. In nine of his 10 starts this year, he's posted fewer than 10 points in a basic scoring league. He's had 10 targets or more in just one game this year, and he's had a modest 32 targets in his last five starts. It doesn't make him a stiff, of course, you're still starting him every week. But the Chargers aren't doing anything special to get Gates the rock in the end zone, and it's also worth noting that San Diego still treats LaDainian Tomnlinson like a red-zone weapon, even as his skill set no longer demands it.

The Cowboys better straighten out their offense against Oakland on Thursday, because the schedule gets significantly harder after that (Giants, Chargers, Saints). Tony Romo's(notes) crew has just two scoring drives over the last two weeks, and that slump occurred against a pair of struggling defensive units (Packers, Redskins). The Pokes are having problems sustaining drives, with third down a particular problem; Romo had a 79.1 rating on the money down, while the offense is converting a pedestrian 38.7 percent on third down.

Someday, I'd like an explanation as to why DeAngelo Williams(notes) sat behind Deshaun Foster(notes) for multiple seasons. The baton should have been passed during Williams's first year – remember this showing at Philly? Instead, John Fox and friends made Williams wait two full years, and then they drafted Jonathan Stewart(notes) to overload the position. Talk about misjudging your own talent.

It's hard to be underrated when you play on a team as visible as the Patriots, but Wes Welker(notes) is one of the most underrated commodities in football. Go back and re-read some of the web jabberwocky back from Week 2 when the Jets upset the Welker-less Patriots; some scribes insisted Julian Edelman(notes) wasn't all that different than Welker. In Week 11, with a healthy Welker and a confident Tom Brady(notes) in the mix, order was restored in the AFC East.

Mark Sanchez(notes) remains a messy work-in-progress for the Jets. Be careful of system quarterbacks who play for a dominant offense in college; Sanchez was seldom rushed at USC, and it's held back the development of his pocket presence.

Let's cut Matt Millen a break and let him settle in as an announcer. Yes, he was a joke as a general manager. No, he never should have gotten that position without any front office experience. But that doesn't mean he can't be decent in his second go-round in the booth. Millen's best game isn't going to come out working with Stuart Scott on ESPN, but Bob Papa is an excellent partner on the NFL Network games.

Brad Childress doesn't get a lot of props in this blog but it was very wise to give Brett Favre(notes) a quick hook against the Seahawks. The Seattle offense isn't built to come back from 28-point deficits (especially on the road), and heck, getting Tarvaris Jackson(notes) some snaps (and some confidence) probably wasn't a bad idea.

I gotta give it up to Favre, too – I thought I was "Favred out" for life, the never-ending story, but he's forcing me to root for him. He's no worse than No. 2 or No. 3 in the MVP debate right now, and if you want to give it to him, I wouldn't complain. I'd probably go Peyton Manning(notes) 1, Favre 2, Drew Brees(notes) 3 at the moment; obviously there's a lot of play ahead of us.

It's time to throw Devil Ray rules at Jon Gruden – every time he says "football player" on a telecast, fine him $5,000.

Prefer your brunch on Sundays? I post my in-game reactions in real time on Twitter; click here to follow along.

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94 Comments

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  1. pableeto19
    1. Posted by pableeto19 Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:47 pm EST

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    long time
    first time
  2. pianow
    2. Posted by pianow Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:48 pm EST

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    Sanchez vs. Brady - boys to men. Bill Walton should come out of retirement to describe some of these Sanchez interceptions.
  3. pableeto19
    3. Posted by pableeto19 Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:48 pm EST

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    also gates is on my team and he's a fraud
  4. Hudson
    4. Posted by Hudson Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:50 pm EST

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    haha jon gruden sucks
  5. billj7341
    5. Posted by billj7341 Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:21 pm EST

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    Totally disagree with you on Cutler's performance -- it was not at all "at the expense of big plays" . Just watching the game, I thought he was taking cracks down the field all night. Indeed, that play to Knox, should've been a 60-yard TD. Two passes should've been easy TD's of 30+ yards. He hits those, and we're talking about a near-300 yard, 3 TD night. But he overthrew them. By a lot. He needs to get fixed.
  6. V for victory
    6. Posted by V for victory Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:24 pm EST

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    no more starts 4 gates @ w/t...burleson or crabtree from here on out
  7. Rob v.21
    7. Posted by Rob v.21 Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:53 pm EST

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    It's more fun to rag on Cutler than to admit the entire team around him sucks. An offense lives and dies on offensive line play and they have none. You can't run, you can't protect the passer and any hope of getting short passes goes out the window when you don't have a single good WR. Cutler's doing what he can but he's not getting any help. And the D sucks too, which can make the offense work that much harder more often.
    But that's too logical for an article like this, which is more or less a football tabloid. Give people what they want, whether it's true or not.
    And Gruden can go away. Forever. Talk about a complete moron.
  8. Joe P
    8. Posted by Joe P Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:57 pm EST

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    Why, exactly, did Houston stick with Chris Brown's three yards and a cloud of dirt all game? So much for that re-commitment to Steve Slaton.
  9. tom w
    9. Posted by tom w Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:57 pm EST

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    Pierre Thomas... Aaaargh! Here is my situation, Thomas vs. NE, Snelling vs. TB, Rock Cartwright vs. PHI... Do I replace Thomas with 20 carry Cartwright?
  10. B, or B Roc if you nasty
    10. Posted by B, or B Roc if you nasty Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:10 am EST

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    Man, I'm like a RB's worst nightmare. Drafted Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs, Leon Washington, and Ahmad Bradshaw. Picked up Ladell Betts, and now Rock Cartwright. Am I seriously starting Cartwright and Bradshaw due to injuries? Against Philly and Denver, respectively? I went Andre Johnson, Randy Moss 1-2 with the 7th overall pick. And this is what happens. PS T.O. started 6 weeks for me, and then rode the bench every week after (including this one). F.M.L.
  11. Johnny S
    11. Posted by Johnny S Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:28 am EST

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    I would go with Snelling if he starts, then Thomas at NE, their offense will be in the redzone.
  12. pianow
    12. Posted by pianow Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:45 am EST

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    Monday night was another case in point for No. 1 corners and what they do - Cortland Finnegan *was not* dedicated to Andre Johnson. Not even close.
  13. Jay Bee
    13. Posted by Jay Bee Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:45 am EST

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    Who do you like better for the rest of the year: Slaton or Wells?
  14. AKO
    14. Posted by AKO Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:46 am EST

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    If we're going to start fining Gruden, then Jaworski definitely needs to be fined $10K every time he says "in the national football league"
  15. Pattio
    15. Posted by Pattio Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:48 am EST

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    Pianowski, great , great, GREAT analysis. Honestly, you offer the best analysis of fantasy football content out of the Yahoo! experts, with Behrens coming in a close second. Funston has been awful this year, why do a [profane] big board once every 3-4 weeks?? Noise, My God, I loved him but he is just horrendous now. I have no idea what happened there but I'm so sick of reading Flames/Lames, now I simply read it to see how bad his picks will be.
    You take a different approach to analyzing every outcome in the NFL and translate it appropriately into fantasy relevance. Great job. I'm a Panthers fan, and I was wondering that same thing about DeAngelo from week 1 of his rookie year. I'm also a Pierre Thomas owner, and while I have accepted the fact that he won't be a top-10 fantasy RB, I still roll with him because of the fact he is #1 on an elite offense and ultimately, I truly believe he is going to reward his owners going down the stretch.
    Keep up the amazing work, knock some sense into Brad Evans, and tell Funston to update the Fu^%$#g big board.
  16. Jay Bee
    16. Posted by Jay Bee Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:49 am EST

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    And yeah, Chris Brown certainly isn't the answer in Houston. Where did that decision come from?
  17. Anrkist
    17. Posted by Anrkist Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:55 am EST

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    What morons said Edelman was on par with Welker? I know people were calling him a speculative add... but, out these Bloggers. I must ban them from my browser.
  18. pianow
    18. Posted by pianow Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:56 am EST

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    It's not all on Cutler. I don't mean to suggest that.
  19. Bill
    19. Posted by Bill Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:19 am EST

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    Fine Aikman too, for his constant use of unneccessary "whats", as in, "Romo thought Roy Williams was going to run a different route than what he did." Simms is also guilty.
  20. mindmelt
    20. Posted by mindmelt Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:20 am EST

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    Think Hester will ever get back in the endzone and should start him next week?
    I see KC getting blown out as well, gotta believe Chris Chambers will do well against his old team.
    Anyone??
  21. scooter281
    21. Posted by scooter281 Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:26 am EST

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    Scott, while Welker is clearly better than Edelman, I believe the result against the Jets was more about Brady having knocked the rust off than the presence of Welker.
  22. Brett C
    22. Posted by Brett C Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:33 am EST

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    I am so sick of Chris Brown this year! I drafted Slaton in every league and continue to see him lose carries to Mr. 2.8 ypc, who has no upside, and by the way, fumbled at the 1 to cost the Texans a game this season. Tell Kubiak to pull his head out if he wants a playoff run!!
  23. Maddox Jolie-Pitt
    23. Posted by Maddox Jolie-Pitt Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:33 am EST

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    so that's how Ghoulash is spelled, all these years I been wonderin'. The playcalling tonight was atrocious. What do the Texans expect by doing the same thing over and over? That's why they lost. When it was tied and the Titans needed a score, they pass three straight times? Since when has that been there strong suit? Both teams deserve to lose for $#@& like that.
  24. Brett C
    24. Posted by Brett C Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:36 am EST

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    What do you think this week? I have Rice, Mendenhall, Slaton, and Snelling? I need to start 2 in a do or die week.
  25. Ryan Reynolds
    25. Posted by Ryan Reynolds Tue Nov 24, 2009 1:36 am EST

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    I thought about it, and I still blame sean payton

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