Roto Arcade - Fantasy

Thirteen games, ten hours, and a bunch of observations. Settle in.

Joseph Addai(notes) has become one of my favorite fantasy players of the season. Is he having a great year for the Colts? Heck no. But in our make-believe game, in our numbers racket, he's absolute money and there's great lesson in here about environment, summer buzz and how NFL clubs make (and delay) their decisions.

The surface numbers don't look like much with Addai. He's averaging 3.5 yards a carry and he doesn't have a run longer than 14 yards all year. His best rushing game of the year came two weeks back at St. Louis (20 carries, 64 yards); Canton won't be calling for that tape. Donald Brown(notes) has looked far more explosive (4.6 YPC) when he's been given a chance to play.

So why is Addai a Top 12 running back in most standard formats and a Top 10 guy in PPR groups? Because the Colts keep giving him volume, the Colts keep using him around the scoring stripe (seven scores, plus a TD pass), and the Colts keep throwing him the ball (34 receptions on 41 targets).

The bottom line is that the Colts trust Addai in key spots (passing downs, scoring position), and even as they're going to hand the bulk of the responsibility to Brown some day, these changeovers don't always happen overnight. Addai was a heck of a fantasy value this summer if you were willing to swim against the current and try an unsexy option. The same angle came through in New York (with Thomas Jones(notes)) and to a lesser extent in Arizona (with Tim Hightower(notes), a sneaky flex-type guy you probably got for nothing).

Yes, Brown's injuries have played significantly into this Addai story. Yes, Brown looks far more explosive as a runner. Yes, Brown's going to be the better fantasy player very soon, maybe in 2010, maybe later this year. But here's another example of how you can win by asking "why not?" when everyone else is asking "why bother?"

The best thing that ever happened to Vince Young's(notes) career was his benching and subsequent year in limbo. It's humbled him, and those close to the Titans will tell you that he's come back with better work habits. It doesn't mean he's going to be a success in the NFL, but at least he has a chance now.

A lot of people like to take shots at Michael Turner(notes) but let's be fair about this – he's scored in seven straight games and he's got a higher YPC this year than in his breakthrough 2008 season. He also lost a 40-yard carry Sunday due to penalty. He's a rock-solid lead back, period, end of story.

Andy Reid is a fantastic coach Monday through Saturday, but in-game strategy just isn't his thing. Okay, the Eagles were jobbed on that Donovan McNabb(notes) spot, and I would have challenged that too, but the decision to kick a long field goal inside of 5 minutes when you‘re trailing by a touchdown and out of timeouts makes absolutely no sense. And can we all admit the Michael Vick(notes) experiment is a colossal waste of time?

Tony Romo's(notes) game has rallied nicely since the Miles Austin(notes) emergence, but the Cowboys are still lost when they're asked to throw the ball inside the opposing 10-yard line (sorry Jason Witten(notes) owners; this just isn‘t getting better). I'm not a big fan of Wildcatting at the goal but with the Dallas pass offense struggling in the red area, the Tashard Choice(notes) wrinkle at Philadelphia made sense.

It was fairly obvious the Pokes wanted to get Roy Williams engaged as early as possible against the Eagles, and say this for Williams, he had a solid game (5-75, 8 targets). But the issue wasn't decided until the Cowboys went back to their game-breaker, Miles Austin, who broke Philadelphia's heart with a 49-yard touchdown courtesy of a gorgeous Sluggo route. Bottom line, Austin deserves more than four looks per week.

Sometimes a quarterback throws a handful of picks and it's not his fault – the pass blocking doesn't give him a chance, the receivers bobble catchable passes, etc. But then there's Matthew Stafford's(notes) five-interception jamboree at Seattle, where the blame belongs squarely on No. 9 shoulders. It's a shame Stafford got hurt when he did in Chicago because he was starting to put things together, but he's been confused and inaccurate since he came back.

The Saints defense continues to be a fantasy gold mine (seven scores), and the hits should keep on coming against the Rams and Bucs the next two weeks,.

Julius Jones(notes) did have one nice catch-and-run off a screen but otherwise he didn't impress me against Detroit (2.3 YPC). It's time to give Justin Forsett(notes) 8-12 touches a game, Seattle.

The dogs are finally barking again, going 18-7 the last two weeks (10-2 last week). The squares weren't going to have run of the place forever.

Steve Smith will occasionally make a few big plays through his catch-and-run ability – talking a short pass in stride and beating defenses with his legs – but it's almost impossible for him to do anything on a deep route because Jake Delhomme's(notes) accuracy on the long ball is just dreadful this season. Here's one instance where a receiver tantrum might not help all that much; Smith can do damage with short and intermediate routes, but the crime of his season is that he still has the wheels to consistently beat corners deep, but there's no one who can deliver an accurate pass.

I enjoy Chris Berman and Tom Jackson doing "The Blitz" Sunday night, I really do. It's probably the only Berman thing I‘d care to watch these days. But when Tom Jackson says the Chargers should be running the ball more, he's dead wrong. This isn't 1977, TJ. They changed the pass-defense rules three decades ago. Throwing the ball is a giveaway now, it's easy money. Say so long to Rob Lytle, three yards and a cloud of dust. The Chargers are absolutely in the right as they center their offense around Philip Rivers(notes), Vincent Jackson(notes) and friends.

Aaron Rodgers(notes) continues to post juicy fantasy numbers but I can't imagine how he'll stay in one piece through the full season. Rodgers has pretty good mobility and that's a gift and a curse; the nerve to extend plays often leads to a drive-stalling and body-jolting sack. The line is a big part of the protection problem, of course, but Rodgers isn't helping the cause.

A monster game from Calvin Johnson(notes) is coming soon, I really believe that. But even when he puts up 219 yards and 2-3 scores in a game down the stretch, it's not going to make up for how he's sabotaged your season for two months.

The last time I said anything negative about Antonio Gates(notes) I got tackled by a slew of peeps. Okay, just the facts them – he's gone without a touchdown in 14 of his last 16 games and he was dropping passes all over Jersey yesterday. Make of it what you will.

Happy 40th, Sesame Street. It was a great gig until you brought Elmo along.

You can win with Larry Johnson(notes), but he's the wrong guy to have around a losing situation. We can tell a front-runner when we see one. Maybe he'll get bailed out and reprogrammed like Corey Dillon(notes) was in New England (another pass-blocking ace, by the way, but I'm less optimistic for LJ than I was for Dillon back in the day.

The game of blackjack theme continues for the Redskins offense – once they hit 17, they stick. But there were some positive signs in the loss at Atlanta; this offense might be better off with a fresh Ladell Betts(notes) as opposed to a broken-down Clinton Portis(notes) (though it will miss Portis's sublime pass blocking).

A lot of the Monday Brunch comes from my in-game comments Sunday. Click here to follow along on Twitter.

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56 Comments

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  1. NORCAL DAN
    1. Posted by NORCAL DAN Mon Nov 09, 2009 5:58 pm EST

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    So right about Elmo....
  2. Matt
    2. Posted by Matt Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:15 pm EST

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    Addai getting the bulk of the work in Indy is sort of like seeing Tom Green (Addai) with Drew Barrymore (Colts), when you know that Barrymore is best friends with somebody like Ashton Kutcher (Brown). You look at Green (Addai), and then look at Brown (Kutcher), then look at Green again just to make sure that you're not missing anything, then finally look at Drew Barrymore with a quizzical look on your face.
  3. clayton s
    3. Posted by clayton s Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:20 pm EST

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    I love the Monday Brunch and generally everything you have to offer Pianow, but seriously, if it's not gonna come out until 5 PM can you please change the name? I shouldn't have to be waiting til dinner time every Monday to get my brunch.
  4. HunterS
    4. Posted by HunterS Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:27 pm EST

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    Matt maybe you should go back to chatting with neighborhood gals and let the men do the talking?
  5. The Rat
    5. Posted by The Rat Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:31 pm EST

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    Big Janks!
  6. HunterS
    6. Posted by HunterS Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:31 pm EST

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    I wait all day for some thoughts on picking up LJ, and this is the insight you give me piano. Couldl he produce in Washington????
  7. pianow
    7. Posted by pianow Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:34 pm EST

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    Call it dinner. Call it a snack. Call it whatever you like.
  8. Dman
    8. Posted by Dman Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:44 pm EST

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    Bold predictions on Megatron, Scott. Considering there were two passing touchdowns on Sunday and Megatron was not one of them I am a bit skeptical of a 200+ yard game and 2-3 TDs anytime soon. I can forgive Megatron sabotaging my team if he does have such a game, however (Rice and MJD have saved me thus far). A larger pain in the you-know-what exists in A. Boldin. What can I expect from him?
  9. birdie
    9. Posted by birdie Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:54 pm EST

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    How can Elmo be the face of Sesame Street when Grover, Cookie Monster and Oscar the Grouch are sooo much better??? kids these days. even the ghey duo of Burt & Ernie are 10X better than Elmo...i'll give an honorable mention to The Count too
    p.s. Mike Bell went off yesterday ;) not that any of my predictions did that much better
  10. Matt
    10. Posted by Matt Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:54 pm EST

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    Way to be the macho man, Hunter. But maybe you should try replying on a Homes & Garden website.. Women LOVE the macho act. In fact, they eat it right up. Maybe that's what she's doing in your pic? Eating up your macho?
  11. pianow
    11. Posted by pianow Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:10 pm EST

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    Mike Bell's week 9 was wrecked when Carolina got up 14-0 right off the bus. Sometimes the flow of the game goes somewhere that no one expects. Part of the racket.
  12. TheGreatOne
    12. Posted by TheGreatOne Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:11 pm EST

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    Andy Reid is a joy to watch. The Eagles should play every NBC game. After a fun day of football watching Reid butcher up clock management and playcalling is just a perfect way to end the day.
    If I was a Philly fan, it might not be so joyous. But as someone who doesn't care about the NFC East, its great. The Dono challenge gets the headlines but the hidden gem was Fat Andy throwing the red hankie on LeSean McCoy's catch only to see that the spot was indeed wrong but even worse for the Eagles.
  13. RJ
    13. Posted by RJ Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:47 pm EST

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    I balied out on Calvin a month along with Felix Jones for Pierre Thomas and I never looked back. I hope johnson does break out with a huge game then puts up 2-3 points for a month. Good riddens!
  14. TideCats
    14. Posted by TideCats Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:57 pm EST

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    What are you guys take on SJax rest of the season....?
    Probably not the formart, but giving serious thought to a trade.. Was offered SJax for my Hightower and S. Holmes... Keeper Format
  15. dabearsonlyfan
    15. Posted by dabearsonlyfan Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:57 pm EST

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    It sounds like I'm the only one that doesn't think it was crazy for Reid to kick the field goal with just under 5 to play. Besides the Austin catch and run, Philly's defense had been playing well and containing the Cowboys offense all night. Why not kick a field goal and set yourself up for the win IF you can, again, stop Dallas on offense. Not only that, you have DeSean Jackson returning the punt if your defense can hold for one series - and then you have him to throw to on offense when/if you get the ball back.
    It's 4 and 11 ball at the 35 with just under five minutes to go. If you don't convert, you give the Cowboys a pretty short field and a chance to put it out of reach with a field goal. If you kick the field goal, your defense has to come up with a stop then you get AT LEAST 4 chances to score the winning touchdown. If you do convert, you tie the game and give Dallas plenty of time to drive for a winning field goal. So your options are: lose, win, tie/lose...
  16. chun k
    16. Posted by chun k Mon Nov 09, 2009 8:07 pm EST

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    its stink not stick
  17. maximus
    17. Posted by maximus Mon Nov 09, 2009 8:15 pm EST

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    Why does everyone forget Vince Young has a good record as a starting qb. I bet you cant name 3 qbs that won 8 games in their first 2 years of the NFl. You guys are a joke to say the least. Ha Ha...Vince Young is a winner and thats something you fantasy geeks just dont get....
  18. Ryan S
    18. Posted by Ryan S Mon Nov 09, 2009 8:20 pm EST

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    Now heres where Calvin Johnson pays off ... An idiotic owner waited all this time and then trades him to me for Ahmad Bradshaw and Mike Sims Walker. Deadly addition now that hes healthy. My team of Rivers Roddy Calvin DeAngelo and Benson are going all the way.
  19. The Fresh One
    19. Posted by The Fresh One Mon Nov 09, 2009 8:23 pm EST

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    The reason Austin wasnt' being targeted is because the Eagles KNEW that he was their gamebreaker and paid extra attention to him. He shouldn't have caught that last TD anyway, McNabb had that first down. Austin's line would have been ugly if the refs made the right call on that sneak. I hate Miles Austin. He's like the new Hines Ward, all smiley and stupid. He can't even dunk.
  20. Big Willy
    20. Posted by Big Willy Mon Nov 09, 2009 8:28 pm EST

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    Painful week - opponent had 3 players going in the noon games - Fitzgerald, G. Olsen, and Addai: After 5 minutes of the 1st quarter were gone in these games I actually had the nerve to ask what else could go wrong: I got my answer soon enough. Ouch!
  21. BSchu
    21. Posted by BSchu Mon Nov 09, 2009 8:48 pm EST

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    does anyone remember Bananas in Pajamas? that is better than sesame street w/ elmo
  22. pianow
    22. Posted by pianow Mon Nov 09, 2009 9:06 pm EST

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    The W/L record of a quarterback can be overrated. The Ravens won a title despite Trent Dilfer. A lot of those Young wins happened despite him. That said, I am rooting for him.
  23. KarmaPolice0405
    23. Posted by KarmaPolice0405 Mon Nov 09, 2009 9:07 pm EST

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    Just to share I have Calvin Johnson on all 3 of my fantasy teams and yet I have a chance to be in 1st in all 3 leagues. I know its bragging but 1 player can never sink a whole season even if you have to draft that player in the 1st 2 rounds. Fantasy is all about depth!

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