Roto Arcade - Fantasy

The simple goal of the fantasy owner is to go where the points are. And with that in mind, Kansas City, here I come. 

It's time to stop lumping the Chiefs in with the weakest teams in the league, no matter that they're 1-8. Kansas City was an eyelash away from beating the Jets, Bucs and Chargers the last three weeks, and Tyler Thigpen seems to get better with every series. Sure, Thigpen could struggle down the stretch as teams get more film and tendencies on him, but the Chargers had an extra week to get ready for this game and it didn't seem to help their defense at all.

It's clear the Chiefs got a major steal in Mark Bradley; just keep that guy healthy and he's a legitimate starter, possibly a star down the road. I love that 25 of Thigpen's 27 completions Sunday went to Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe and Bradley. Get the ball downfield to your three best weapons.

Everyone knows that the Chiefs defense can't stop the run (5.2 YPC), but the resurgence of the KC offense has forced opponents to throw more in recent weeks; the Jets, Bucs, and Chargers piled up 948 passing yards and six touchdowns. More passing leads to more yards, more points, longer games, and more fantasy numbers; say yes to all of that.

Add it all up and Kansas City is turning into one of our favorite fantasy stops, a carnival on both sides of the ball. Get ready for some pinball scoring against New Orleans next week, and look forward to Denver and San Diego in early December.

Peyton Manning didn't get any fantasy goodies at Green Bay but otherwise he's been gold in five of his six starts since the bye, and that includes big production against Baltimore, at Tennessee and at Pittsburgh. So what if the offensive line struggles, who cares if Joseph Addai can't get going, why worry about Marvin Harrison's cliff season? Manning has truly proven to be recession proof and matchup ambivalent, and now here comes the fun part, the underbelly of the schedule (Texans, Chargers, Browns, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars). The Tennessee rematch is neatly tucked away in a safe spot, Week 17.

Say this for Jack Del Rio, he knows how to motivate his troops in a back-to-the-wall game. But Jacksonville's makeshift offensive line isn't going to open a lot of holes against better defenses. With Tennessee, Minnesota, and Chicago coming in three of the next four games, the best time to trade Maurice Jones-Drew is right now.

Andy Reid and the Eagles are essentially a mad lib at this point, losing so many close games in the same manner. Sunday night's defeat to the Giants certainly followed the script: Wasted time outs and silly challenges, check; Donovan McNabb, gassed down the stretch, check; trouble with short-yardage conversion, check; no consistent running game, check.

There's been plenty of talk and justified gushing about Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner, but we should also tip the cap to the Falcons for how smartly they use Jerious Norwood (forever buried by the previous regime) and Michael Jenkins. This offense can hurt you in a lot of ways, and they just don't keep the chains moving, they get chunks of yardage against you.

After watching BenJarvus Green-Ellis consistently flatten the Buffalo front seven, I'm thinking Jamal Lewis might turn the clock back against the same Bills in Week 11. Green-Ellis collected 105 yards without a run over 13 yards, which tells you all you need to know. New England's Sunday win was about as dominant as a 20-10 victory can be.

I'm not a big proponent of player-team history, but the Patriots sure know how to lock down Lee Evans.

Bo Scaife really can't run away from anyone, but he gets open and he catches what you throw to him. And that's why Kerry Collins keeps throwing him the ball in key spots, and in tight spots.

Brandon Jones doesn't seem to have the burst we saw early in his career before the knee problems, but he's still a useful player for the PPR crowd. Very quietly he's collected 16 receptions the last three weeks.

Bernard Berrian couldn't beat Green Bay's press corners; his no-show isn't on Gus Frerotte, it's squarely on No. 87. You guys were right, I was wrong.

Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson scored in the same game? There's an exacta I'd never be able to come up with.

The Baltimore running back matrix is not to be understood. This isn't the first time they've hinted one way and plowed the other way. That's been the story just about the entire season.

It took longer than we expected but Vincent Jackson is the genuine article, a big, fast receiver who's come a long way as a route runner. Tie in the massive growth from Philip Rivers and this is an every-week fantasy starter.

If the Vikings can sneak into the playoffs, Adrian Peterson is going to (justly) crash the MVP discussion. But looking at what Minnesota has left, I think it's all a moot point, this team won't be playing in January.

Kevin Boss looked pretty snappy in Philadelphia, posting six catches for 69 yards and a score just a few hours after Jeremy Shockey continued his grave-digging act for New Orleans. Maybe it's just coincidence, but it's interesting to note how the explosion of the current New York juggernaut started right around the removal of Shockey from the equation.

I don't want to get too excited about DeAngelo Williams, who might merely be a good player and not a great player, but answer me this - why didn't he play more last year when the only man in his way was DeShaun Foster?

While there are still 500 things wrong in Oakland, effort wasn't a problem against Carolina. This was a competitive group in Week 10.

Look for the new-look Niners to run Frank Gore into the ground, starting tonight. And you'll get a bunch of receptions every week, too. I just hope he has something left in the tank when he finally gets to play behind an excellent offensive line.

Rod Marinelli plans to be Mr. Coy again this week and wait until just before kickoff before he reveals his starting quarterback. That's almost like Bugs Meaney covering his test paper, isn't it?

When you see a double-digit spread, you take the points, especially in 2008.

If I'm the Giants and Jets, I don't see a reason to switch kickers again. Jay Feely and John Carney are getting it done. And very quietly, the two New York teams are the highest-scoring outfits in the league this season (the Cardinals will probably muck up that neat storyline at some point tonight).

So much for Brett Favre making a star out of Jerricho Cotchery; JC hasn't seen the end zone in seven of his last eight starts. He's a No. 3 fantasy receiver at best right now.

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  1. pianow
    1. Posted by pianow Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    You watched football all day, didn't you? Well, that was the assignment. What caught your eye on the field?
  2. bkwhoppa66
    2. Posted by bkwhoppa66 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:08 pm EDT

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    Is Calvin Johnson this year's version of Roddy White last year? Doesn't matter who is throwing him the ball, he just stacks up numbers.
  3. AJ
    3. Posted by AJ Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:36 pm EDT

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    Don't be fooled by Mewelde moore's poor yards per carry. He ran the ball very effectively. Here's what I think his stats are weekly. (with Parker out)
    18 carries, 87 yards, 5 catches, 34 yards, 1 TD total
  4. Chadam
    4. Posted by Chadam Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:21 pm EDT

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    I saw both Cotchery and Holmes sucking it up, they are two of the biggest busts at WR this year, along with Stone Hands Edwards. I'm guessing both are outside your top-30 WR's when you rank the players for year-to-end.
    Any thoughts on Behrens' analysis on Tomlinson? I know you've been warning us of his fall from the elite, but does that cupcake schedule not do anything for you?
  5. Matt
    5. Posted by Matt Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:18 pm EDT

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    Yeah, nothing like getting stuck with Kevin Faulk AND Jamaal Charles in my lineup and getting stuck with 4 carries between the two.
    Yes, my RB corps is THAT bad that I had to resort to them. What in the name of Mike Shanahan is going on?
  6. BigNoise
    6. Posted by BigNoise Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:07 pm EDT

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    Piano Man,
    To answer your DeAgelo comment: John Fox steadfastly believed DeShaun was really Barry Foster circa '92.
    In all seriousness, it appears the Little Napoleon is running with unmitigated conviction, a characteristic he never exuded last year. Instead of timidly waiting for a hole to open, he's attacking spaces. That attitude change has resulted in several tackle-shredding runs. His long TD run against the hapless Raiders yesterday is indicative of the new and improved DeAngelo.
    Maybe my unrivaled man-crush for the guy has clouded my objective judgements, but from what I've seen the dude has gone from boob to beast. We should've paid closer attention to the signs in exhibition play.
  7. bkwhoppa66
    7. Posted by bkwhoppa66 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:08 pm EDT

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    AJ, any chance Willie Parker stays out the rest of the year and they let Moore carry the load? He's been pretty damn good.
  8. pianow
    8. Posted by pianow Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    On Faulk and G-E, it was a case of the flow of the game taking over. The Patriots saw that Buffalo could be pushed around, so they kept pushing. Nothing intricate.
  9. flatstick96
    9. Posted by flatstick96 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    I should have listed to you, Mr. Evans - I'll win this week anyway, but I sure am annoyed at having left Thomas Jones on the bench yesterday in favor of Ronnie Brown. In last week's rankings each of the other three experts had Brown ahead of Jones, but you nailed it. Well played.
    To all: What are the chances that TJ keeps this up? I believe he's been the top RB in fantasy scoring over the last 5 weeks (at least, he has been in my format). I had been trying to trade him all season to try and pick up a WR to help mitigate my Braylon/Santonio disaster; now I'm kinda glad nobody would take him.
    Thinking instead of trying to move Slaton for a Boldin/Steve Smith (the good one)/Colston/Greg Jennings type. Thoughts on that? RB depth isn't an issue for me, with Gore/Brown/Slaton/MJD/TJ (starting 3 each week).
  10. Eric
    10. Posted by Eric Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:57 pm EDT

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    Why is it that the Bears insist on QB sneaks and/or Jason McKie at the goaline? The sneaks have worked but Mckie is awful down there, why don't they just give it to forte?
  11. flatstick96
    11. Posted by flatstick96 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    Oops, that should have read "listened". Wish we could edit our posts...
  12. Eric
    12. Posted by Eric Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:57 pm EDT

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    Flatstick, go for Jennings, he still has the bears twice and I think one with the lions but I could be wrong, anyhow, the Bears cannot stop the pass for the life of them, I'm expecting huge numbers from Jennings this week
  13. Baumer
    13. Posted by Baumer Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:38 pm EDT

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    I know it's probably too early to tell but any thoughts on the KC running back situation? A lot of playoffs will be affected by this development. Also, I have Ryan Grant and Chris Johnson and they flip-flopped my expectations. Any increased confidence in Grant (he's in the midst of brutal stretch, is he startable?) or decreased confidence in Johnson (Is there any other defense that could shut him down?)?
  14. Zombie Jackson
    14. Posted by Zombie Jackson Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:28 pm EDT

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    Wow! A Bugs Meany reference?! Nice to see Encyclopedia Brown gets some love.
  15. BLAHZAY
    15. Posted by BLAHZAY Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:31 pm EDT

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    I dont trust KC just yet. they are the true gamble. i like brady but he can give you anywhere from 0 to 10 pts. never trust a team that could easily be shutout at any moment
  16. Paul R
    16. Posted by Paul R Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:07 pm EDT

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    RE: DWill not moving ahead of D. Foster in 2007.
    The answer: John Fox's Panthers win with 2 solid backs, infuriating upside thirsty fantasy owners everywhere, except those who see the forest through the trees.
    1) Stephen Davis starts, Foster is the rookie darling who disappoints.
    2) Davis leaves, Foster "starts" DWill is the new kid in town. He and Foster underwhelm, as do the Panthers.
    3) Foster leaves, JStew is drafted, Fox "promotes" DWill and the Panthers roll again.
    Coach Fox knows how to motivate (by challenging one's job security), why do you think DWill is willing to run inside now Brad? If he doesn't Fox drafted someone who will.
    Exhibit A as to why knowing the coach's tendencies is vital to fantasy football.
  17. Crazylegs $wam
    17. Posted by Crazylegs $wam Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:13 pm EDT

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    was thinkin the same on Porter/Williamson. i'd say the odds in Vegas on that specialty bet occuring would be in the neighborhood of 18,750 to 1... and they'd have found no takers it.
  18. Crazylegs $wam
    18. Posted by Crazylegs $wam Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:13 pm EDT

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    as for KC, have Bowe on my main team, TGon and LJ in two others and just picked up Bradley in the one with the deep bench~ so yeah, i'm down with the movement. as for Thigpen, i prefer my current options but if things turned sour and he was still a FA, it wouldn't last for long.
  19. Paul R
    19. Posted by Paul R Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:07 pm EDT

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    RE: "I don't trust KC"
    Anyone who watched KC vs SD knows that Thigpen was in the shotgun 98% of the time. I think they were in a "pro-style offense" for about 5 plays. Also aiding Thigpen, practically KC's entire starting defense (who weren't that good to begin with) went down on Sunday.
    Herman Edwards wants to win, he knows Thigpen can run the spread (from Coastal Carolina) and he has 3 play makers to keep happy (and in KC: Tony G!) even if/when LJ comes back Thigpen will be airing it out for the rest of the year.
    If he can do it against TB and NYJ, the rest of the schedule should be fruitful. KC hasn't had a passing offense since Vermeil and Saunders, so why not build confidence in the passing game instead of "playing out the string".
  20. sethbeno
    20. Posted by sethbeno Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 pm EDT

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    You're absolutley right. Norwood deserves more credit, and he is employed perfectly - just enough to be extremely effective.
    You basically covered what needed to be said, but...I watched the Chiefs game in it's entirety. I also watched Thigpen's first start. He was lost to the point that I was very surprised he was yanked (for anyone) but towards the end of the game, he found a rhythm that caught my eye. Of course, I still thought he was worthless at that point. Fast-forward a few weeks and I'm watching a comeback reminecent of Jay Cutler vs the Chargers in week two. Wow.
  21. flatstick96
    21. Posted by flatstick96 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    Thanks for the comment Eric.
    I should point out that, at 9-1, my team will be making the playoffs, so any trade I do now is with an eye specifically for how the matchups are likely to shape up in weeks 15 and 16.
    Perhaps a better way for me to phrase the question would be: which of these four guys do you like best in weeks 15 and 16?
    Smith: DEN @NYG
    Boldin: MIN @NE
    Colston: @CHI @DET
    Jennings: @JAX @CHI
  22. God
    22. Posted by God Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    jay feeley getting it done? mabye in fantasy but in real football this guy sucks at making big kicks. if hes still the kicker he will burn the jets with a huge miss in a big game mark it down.
  23. Kofax
    23. Posted by Kofax Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:12 pm EDT

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    Maurice Jones-Drew vs Steven Jackson
    Who to go with down the stretch?
  24. Jason
    24. Posted by Jason Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:06 pm EDT

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    I think I had about as much of a hit or miss fantasy lineup as one could get this week: Starting MJD, Mewelde Moore, Gates and Jacksonville's defense in a heavy sack league, and having all of that be offset by starting Cotchery, Berrian, and Chris Johnson. Warner will either get me 3 points or 30 tonight.
  25. Jonathan
    25. Posted by Jonathan Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:58 pm EDT

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    On the subject of WR busts - I happened to draft the terrible trio, Braylon, Cotchery, and Holmes (luckily i also drafted Fitzgerald). But to offset my poor draft i made a couple incredible trades. I traded Holmes for Chris Johnson and Berrian post week 2. and another trade of Cotchery and Braylon for Roddy White and Leon Washington post Braylons explosion against the NYG. those two trades not only saved my season from tanking, but are going to have me first in my league at 8-2 after tonights game.

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