Roto Arcade - Fantasy

Sundays are all about collecting stories and stats, angles and observations. Mondays are about clearing the notebook. Here's what caught my eye during Week 2 of the elegant violence.  

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__5/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-117939885-1221513498.jpg?ymiGYrADFi4UgUNqThe 49ers are a long way from being Super Bowl contenders. The coaching staff is on a short leash. The defense is several players away from being formidable. The offensive line has holes, the receiving corps is ordinary.

And yet, they're on my must-see list. In a lot of ways, they put the fun in dysfunctional. San Francisco's overtime win at Seattle was overshadowed by some of the other fantastic finishes in Week 2, but from a fantasy perspective, it had something for everybody. Lots of yards, lost of points, sacks and turnovers too. Welcome to the NFL Carnival, 2008 edition, and make sure you stop in every week (look at their schedule, it fits the suit perfectly).

J.T. O'Sullivan was running for his life most of the day (eight sacks), but there's a lot to like here. He clearly grasps the Mike Martz scheme and is comfortable in a timing offense. He's capable of keeping a pass play alive when on the run, and he never forget that a dump-off to Frank Gore (man does he have gears) is a good fallback if the downfield stuff is covered. O'Sullivan's rainbow to Isaac Bruce in overtime Sunday was just about the prettiest pass I saw in Week 2 (even as it sunk a few of my Survivor teams).

Bruce, the most underrated technician of his era, still has some juice on the outside. Bryant Johnson is just starting to get comfortable in the offense (remember he was hurt all summer) and it's starting to show. Gore has been good-not-great in the first two weeks but I could see him exploding at any time; if you can get him at value right now, I'm on board, better days are ahead.

The Cleveland Browns were last year's Carnival, giving us a high-drama, high-scoring shootout just about every week. Nobody could stop them, and they couldn't stop too many teams. I don't like this year's Niners offense quite as much as that Cleveland group, but the Carnival potential remains. Go where the points are, get your calculator ready.

Congratulations if you invested in the Denver passing game, you've hit the bonanza. So many things are in place here; a third-year franchise quarterback on the cusp of greatness (Jay Cutler), an alpha-dog receiver who has a chance to outscore everyone at the position (wow, did Brandon Marshall undress Antonio Cromartie), a plug-and-play dynamo at the other wideout spot (Eddie Royal), and a dynamic pass-catcher down the seam (Tony Scheffler). Throw in one of the best offensive minds of our generation in Mike Shanahan and a messy Denver defense on the other side (slow linebackers, overrated secondary), and we'll see plenty of offense (on both sides) in Mile High this season. Drop in two quarters, let's play pinball.

Cutler also gets a boost from the mediocre ground game in Denver. Shanahan plays to his personnel like all the top coaches do, and he knows his best play is airing the ball out.

If you've guy another name quarterback in addition to Cutler, it's time to throw them both on the market (though really, you want to deal the other guy and keep Cutler). Same thing with Scheffler; if you can liquidate someone else's brand value at TE, do it and roll with Scheff. Smart owners are always looking to cash in on depth anyway, if it makes the new starting lineup that much stronger. (I know many of you grasp this already; I say no to about fifty 2-for-1 offers every day.)

The numbers have been great with Aaron Rodgers, but I'm most impressed with how he's getting them. Looking off defenders, hitting third and fourth options, maintaining downfield focus while scrambling; you'd never guess this guy has just two NFL starts under his belt. Obviously it's not that hard to pass on the Vikings and Lions, but Rodgers is legit, and I look forward to watching him square off against the Cowboys next week.

I'm not going to bury the Browns offense for being slow off the mark. The schedule didn't help, and Sunday night's weather was nasty. Braylon Edwards is about as appetizing a buy-low as there is right now.

Short cuts, by the way, are the greatest thing ever. If you're a DirecTV subscriber, drop the extra bucks, it's worth it. The fan in you can't see every play on a Sunday, but the scout in you can catch to every snap on Monday and Tuesday, with all the filler taken out. Turn your TV room into a film room. (The Red Zone Channel also gets high marks as a game-day companion.)

"Seattle receiver" has turned into the "Spinal Tap Drummer" position of the year. Don't run pass routes in the Pacific Northwest this fall, amigos, it's just not worth it.

Detroit's freak receivers can make almost any quarterback look good at least some of the time; cue the Jon Kitna tape. Of course Kitna shifted into point-shaving mode for the endgame, which is why the Lions went down in flames again in their home opener. In very deep leagues where backup QBs get owned, it's time to look into Dan Orlovsky as a stash-and-hope guy. It's not so much that I believe in him, but we know what Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams can do - and the Lions defense provides a nice safety net, shootouts a plenty.

Williams, for what it's worth, complained Monday about his role as the team's No. 2 receiver. We've seen this before, all top receivers are divas.

You can win with Larry Johnson but can you go 4-12 with him? This has Moss-in-Oakland written all over it, and is going to end badly. The game isn't about buying high and selling low, but if I had LJ on a roster right now, I'd certainly be selling at the first sign of daylight.

It's just two weeks, but Willie Parker sure has that Top 10-12 look to him. You know about his home-run ability but he's always been underrated for his work between the tackles; what he lacks in brute power he makes up for with vision and decisiveness. The Steelers certainly see him as their meal ticket; Rashard Mendenhall didn't even see a snap Sunday night in Cleveland. Throw Ben Roethlisberger's shoulder injury into the mix and Parker becomes, without question, the featured element in the Pittsburgh offense.  

It's been a helluva ride for Joey Galloway, especially in his 30s, but welcome to the cliff season.

It's not all his fault but David Garrard sure looks like a context guy to me, not someone who can carry an offense when other elements are falling apart. Doesn't make him a stiff or a bum, but let go of the pre-play excellence everyone fell in love with in 2007, it's not coming back.

The Titans are a full-on time share in the backfield, but it's going to be more lucrative than most because of the way the team is built. The outstanding Tennessee defense will ensure that the ground game stay relevant most weeks, and no matter who the Titans are using at quarterback, Mike Heimerdinger knows the limitations of his passing game. I feel confident we'll see 15 touches or more from both Chris Johnson and LenDale White most weeks, and given the current lay of the land in the NFL, that's enough to start either with confidence as a No. 2 back or flex play.

LaMont Jordan looked plenty powerful in his clock-killing stint, making the New England backfield even more complicated than ever.

Justin Gage worked well with Kerry Collins last year and they've hit the ground running in 2008. There's a somewhat limited upside, but Gage will be usable as a third receiver or a flex play most weeks in deeper leagues, so long as it's Collins pitching the pig.

If you're left holding shares of Randy Moss, I don't think you have much of a choice. Hold, wait for him to do something explosive, then quietly let it be known that you want to "move a receiver." Now's not the time to act. He came pretty close to a score in New Jersey, for what it's worth, beating his defender but Matt Cassel misfired on the throw.

Give credit to Jim Zorn and the Washington offense for rallying nicely after the nightmare opener. I'm still not ready to make a long-term bet on Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis's comments from earlier in the week concern me a little bit, but that's tomorrow's story.

I don't know how many touches and yards we can expect from Tim Hightower, but he's going to score double-digit touchdowns, easy.

As bad as things look in Cincinnati, remember this - wind is the worst enemy to a passing game. If you can get a discount on Carson Palmer or T.J. Houshmandzadeh, I'm interested. I have no idea what to make of the other receiver there, what's his name again?

So much for the rust in Indy's passing game - Peyton Manning willed them to a win, and Anthony Gonzalez was dynamic in the slot (I'm using him every week until further notice). Marvin Harrison can still beat you with his mind, but he can't run by anyone these days.

The maturation of Trent Edwards doesn't make him a fantasy option today, but it makes Lee Evans easy to trust, and it ties Marshawn Lynch to a better situation. Edwards may have improved more in the last 8-12 months than any other quarterback in the league, and offensive coordinator Turk Schonert looks like a rising star. This team isn't going away; underrated defense, nasty returns, hard place to play. Throw in a digestible schedule and Buffalo might be looking at double-digit wins.

Reach out to your San Diego friends today, make a call, drop an email. The way they lost their first two games is almost cruel; almost has a Greg Norman feel to it.

To Brad Childress's credit, he did try to get Adrian Peterson involved as a receiver this week (four catches, 20 yards). Here's hoping they stick with it; getting the ball to the league's most electrifying open-field runner in space is a no-brainer.

DeAngelo Williams can succeed in Carolina's zone blocking scheme, but Jonathan Stewart is tailor-made for it. Big difference. I don't care who starts and who doesn't here; when you see Wednesday's rest-of-season ranks, it will be clear that I'm prepared to "Boogie With Stew."

Earnest Graham's late, long touchdown bailed out his fantasy day, but he also lost an early score due to a holding penalty. Warrick Dunn continues to steal touches, sure, but Graham impresses me every time I see him - keeps moving the pile, gets the extra yard, a surprising breakaway gear, good hands. He's still somewhat undervalued in the fantasy world. 

I feel sorry for Marc Bulger. I can't imagine how he'll last 16 games with that offensive line. Heckuva catch, Torry Holt, but I'd sell you in a minute if someone else shows interest.

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39 Comments

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  1. flatstick96
    1. Posted by flatstick96 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    Great work as always, Scott.
    First, any idea why Yahoo took away the TD from the Seattle defense?
    Given the Cardinals' absolute REFUSAL to put Edge in the game anywhere near the goal line, is he even worthy of a roster spot at this point? The way they are using him right now, I'd be shocked if he scores at all (I mean, I'm sure he'll score at some point, but seriously, I'll be shocked when I finally see him in the end zone, and I don't think I'll him there much at all).
    Derek Anderson just got dropped in my league - I'm starting Cutler until further notice, but my other QB is Garrard - would you drop Garrard for Anderson at this point (assuming he cleared waivers)? Obviously Garrard has shown nothing so far, but neiterh has Anderson, and their schedule is brutal.
    I hope Denver can keep it up; I'm only in one league this year, but in it I own Cutler, Marshall, Royal, and Scheffler - good times...
  2. r t
    2. Posted by r t Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:36 pm EDT

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    You got yourself a Stew going...and it is going to be tasty! won't be AP from last year, but has that kind of potential with enough touches (and equal amount of injury threat as well). that said, i drafted him in 2 of 3 leagues and have been trying to pry him away in the third.
  3. r t
    3. Posted by r t Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:36 pm EDT

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    take DA over garrard for more upside and better receivers, unless he's got the same bye week. i made the mistake of starting vernon davis over scheffler this week, won't do that again...
  4. Mike B
    4. Posted by Mike B Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:51 pm EDT

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    The 9ers offense might not be as good as last year's Browns O, but the D is much better. I see a 8-8 season ahead with a possibility of sneaking into the playoffs.
  5. Joe D
    5. Posted by Joe D Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:03 pm EDT

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    nice spinal tap reference... hah!
  6. t-dot
    6. Posted by t-dot Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:38 pm EDT

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    agreed w mike b, the niners d is much better than said here. the reason they gave up a lot of yards to julius jones is they had 5 db package in the whole game. dont ask me to explain nolan's move due to injured wr's because i dont understand it either.
  7. Tom
    7. Posted by Tom Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm EDT

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    As Nolan explained they have a package they use against Mike Holmgrens scheme which involves staying with a base defense the entire game. Holmgren frequently uses 3WR sets and subs packages in at warp speed making it difficult for the defense to adjust play to play. The only difference in scheme is SS Michael Lewis moves up to a LBish position in place of Manny Lewis (difference of about 10 pounds) so the bulk of the defense is the same. And as you could see, the package worked for the most part picking Hasslebeck off twice.
  8. pianow
    8. Posted by pianow Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    Thanks for the kind words, Flatstick. I would drop Garrard for Anderson; Edwards and Winslow give him an upside that Garrard doesn't have, and Cleveland's defense will force a lot of shootouts - Jacksonville's won't. Of course, you'll keep rolling with Cutler, and enjoying it.
  9. pianow
    9. Posted by pianow Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    Was just reading the Audibles Monday column at Football Outsiders and I read the exact same line about the Seattle WRs and Spinal Tap Drummers (their piece came out far in advance of mine, though I just read it now). I guess Doug Farrar and I have a similar sense of humor, but I assure you this is just a coincidence and nothing more than that. Astute readers of my stuff here might notice that I'm actually borrowing from *myself* with the line - note the Aug. 8 Closing Time piece on Atlanta's bullpen, where I mad lib the same theme. And I can't go more than a week without a Spinal Tap reference, as you know - see Max Scherzer, last weekend. Anyway, I know Yahoo and FO share a lot of readers, and I wanted to address this before anyone got the wrong idea. As you were.
  10. A Yahoo! Contributor
    10. Posted by A Yahoo! Contributor Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:16 pm EDT

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    niners r goin to make the playoffs! believe that jack!...............go 49ers!
  11. Michael
    11. Posted by Michael Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:47 pm EDT

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    I think the Defensve TD that was taken away from Seattle was due to the defense fumbling again before scoring the TD. Technically, I think that the first fumble was ruled a change of possession, then a recovered fumble prior to the TD.
  12. flatstick96
    12. Posted by flatstick96 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    Michael, I can only imagine that Yahoo interprets it that way as well, but I don't agree with it. When the play started, SF was on offense and Seattle was on defense; when the play ended, the Seattle defense had the ball in the end zone, having just scored a TD - I don't see any way you can interpret that other than as a "defensive TD", scored by the defensive unit.
    I am the commish of my league, and have been for years - I am intimately familiar with the Yahoo set-up page where commissioners select scoring categories and point modifiers when setting up their leagues. Under the section heading "Team Defense" the stat category that applies here is called "Touchdowns". Until Yahoo can explain to me how that "Touchdown" WASN'T scored by the Seattle "team defense" (which I interpret to be: "the 11 guys who are on the field for any given team when the other team's offense snaps the ball") then I think taking away those points in complete garbage.
    Let me pose another question: if Yahoo's response echoes Michael's comment (and I suspect it will), do you other fantasy managers agree with it? SHOULD the Seattle D be credited with a score there? I'm particularly interested to hear what the Yahoo fantasy experts think about this (Paging Scott and Andy...)
  13. flatstick96
    13. Posted by flatstick96 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    On a different note, Anderson didn't clear waivers. I suspect that the reason I didn't get him is precisely because I asked about him on here; my brother reads these posts (he's mentioned to me before that he's seen some of my comments on here) and he grabbed Anderson out from under me last night. Coincidence? I doubt it.
    I wish there was a good way to anonymize our posts on here; I understand why Yahoo doesn't want to allow posters to be anonymous to THEM, but it would be nice if at least we could remain anonymous to other fantasy managers, if we so desired.
    Bri, if you are reading this, please know that i will be smoking you when we meet. :-)
  14. matth3w420
    14. Posted by matth3w420 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:11 pm EDT

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    With LT and Ryan Grant being hurt, would it be safe to bench both of them? Ryan Grant I can bench next week for Julius Jones. But I am afraid LT might have a breakout game. It bothers me about his turf toe becuase it's a lingering injury. I can take him out of the flex position and start a WR in his place.
  15. Grover
    15. Posted by Grover Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

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    Bruce and Johnson are available in my league (10 teams). Is one worth a pickup for my bench? Id prob be dropping Mendenhall....
  16. Steven
    16. Posted by Steven Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:07 pm EDT

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    flatstick96,
    hahahahahhaha. I was just reading down thru these and saw your story. Thats a killer man but its funny!
  17. Jacks-Off
    17. Posted by Jacks-Off Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:26 pm EDT

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    yeah Scott, I thought I caught that Spinal Tap shout-out in the Max Scherzer closing time......Now, I suppose you just can't wait until the Browns have a breakout game on offense we're all waiting on....I'm already calling the headline, "HELLO CLEVELAND!!!"
  18. GuitarMark
    18. Posted by GuitarMark Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:52 pm EDT

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    Wow, I went 5-0 this week, including a couple of close ones.
    I have a question for you all: Do you think public leagues are even worth the trouble?
    I'm in one, and I chose "competitive" when I signed up. But, within the first week, Brandon Marshall and Kevin Smith were both dropped, and I got them both despite having the last waiver priority (after claiming Kurt Warner). Then I got Chris Johnson as a free agent. I'm winning easily (152-74 this week). Is it even possible to find good competition in public leagues?
  19. Gumby for President
    19. Posted by Gumby for President Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:24 pm EDT

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    Hey Flatstick... in my family league (9 years strong now) we are awarding the TD to the Seattle defense anyway, and making the adjustment under the commissioner section to adjust points. Just a suggestion, as we also do not see why it wasnt a defense TD, other then the change of possession... but thats just garbage !!
  20. JimS
    20. Posted by JimS Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:47 pm EDT

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    I emailed Yahoo! asking about the scoring. They responded that it was scored as an "offensive fumble return td as seattle had possession of the football, fumbled, recovered the football and socred a td. Therefore, the seattle def is not credited with a td on the play...therefore, Craig Terrill is credited with an offensive fumble return td in leagues that use that stat category. seattle def is not credited with a td."
    Thank God, I won my matchup by one point even without the TD, but it seems like this is type of thing that should be changed in Yahoo! scoring. I can't imagine anyone who would prefer this type of scoring. Yes, it is technically correct, but then again so was the instant replay ruling in the Denver game following Hochuli's blown call. And that was decidedly unsatisfying to everyone, but Denver!!!
  21. Jeremiah W
    21. Posted by Jeremiah W Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:17 pm EDT

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    Sit/Start Questions for you all:
    Who do I sit/start?:
    Eddie Royal/Chris Chambers/Santana Moss (pick one)
    Brandon Jacobs/Julius Jones/Thomas Jones/Darren Sproles (pick two)
    Michael Turner/Willie Parker/Matt Forte (pick two)
    Is anyone finding it goofy that Sproles is predicted to score 14-16 F.Points in week three or is there news about LT that I haven't heard of yet. Is he out for the season or something?
    One more question, will Braylon Edwards turn this crap around an start scoring points or should I drop him or trade him???
  22. Bald Guy, No Hat
    22. Posted by Bald Guy, No Hat Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:06 pm EDT

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    Randy Moss' opponents the next five weeks: Miami, bye, SF, SD, Denver. (!) I think I'll ride this out, thanks.
  23. JimS
    23. Posted by JimS Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:47 pm EDT

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    One other thought on the non-TD by the Seattle defense...if San Fran had picked up Seattle's fumble and returned it for a TD, would Yahoo! have credited San Fran's Defense with a fumble recovery and a touchdown? I bet they would not have. If Gore had scooped up the fumble (not his own, but the subsequent fumble by Seattle) and scored they would have credited Gore with an offensive TD, not the San Fran Defense.
    If not, then Yahoo! has a double standard and should definitely change their scoring on the play!!
  24. ===A===
    24. Posted by ===A=== Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:35 pm EDT

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    I have Cutler, Marshall and Scheffler on my Keeper League.. to go along with Peterson and Chris Johnson... I like it!!
  25. Crazylegs $wam
    25. Posted by Crazylegs $wam Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:13 pm EDT

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    that was a Spinal Tap analogy, not reference, which Led Zep gets on the Boogie with Stew outro.
    other than dumping Scheffler in H2H and selling off Westbrook at the last minute in salary cap before the season kicked off, so far so good.

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