Roto Arcade - Fantasy

The Juggernaut Index is our annual attempt to rank every NFL team for fantasy purposes. We're not concerned with real-life wins and losses here, only fantasy potential. These rankings rely entirely on hard, incontrovertible math. They are not to be questioned.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__4/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-631145977-1219414263.jpg?ymrlXrADCOBaGjUb8. Green Bay Packers

Let's begin with something Aaron Rodgers said recently, when asked about his surprising fall in the first round of the 2005 draft: 

"You’d like to say that yesterday’s history, tomorrow’s a mystery, and today’s a gift. That’s why they call it the present."

Um...yeah. OK.

Typically you'll only get wisdom like that from old women, recovering addicts, and posters that feature kittens. It's not the sort of thing you expect to hear from an NFL quarterback. 

Still, given the events of the past month, maybe we can forgive Rodgers if he's full of motivational nonsense.

Ostensibly, the 24-year-old is in a nice situation: he's surrounded by talent, and he appears to have everyone's full support. But if the Packers lose their opener to Minnesota and the Brett Favre-led Jets win at Miami, Rodgers will be in for an excruciatingly long week.

Expectations are understandably high in Green Bay. The team is coming off a 13-win season, and they averaged over 27 points per game. Last year, the strong-armed Rodgers was terrific against Dallas in relief of Favre (18-for-26, 201 yards, 1 TD). He hit receivers in stride and did not appear to lack confidence. Rodgers is No. 15 in our preseason QB rankings, and you'll notice that Evans is unusually bullish. He ranks Rodgers tenth, ahead of Cutler, Garrard, Favre, Bulger and Eli.

We'll see. As Rodgers himself would tell you, tomorrow's a mystery. The Packers impressed no one in their last exhibition game, a 34-6 loss to San Francisco. The O-line didn't protect well, receivers dropped passes, and Rodgers finished 9-for-16 with only 58 passing yards. Rookie Brian Brohm, who reportedly holds the slimmest possible lead over Matt Flynn in the back-up battle, went 4-for-9 for just 33 yards.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__4/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-159913904-1219433050.jpg?ym6lXrADppa2hjg3Of course, the Packers were without their two most significant weapons, running back Ryan Grant (No. 12 in the Yahoo! ranks) and receiver Greg Jennings (No. 17 among the WRs).

Grant was spectacular last season, carrying 188 times for 956 yards and eight touchdowns. You might recall that he had a pretty decent game against the Seahawks in the playoffs, too. It was clear from Grant's first touch of the season -- a short pass that became a 21-yard gain against the Giants in Week 2 -- that the undrafted back had potential. But he's missed time due to contract-related issues, and more recently a hamstring strain. Grant has downplayed the injury, however, and he insists that he'll be ready for the Vikings:

"I didn't even pull it," Grant said. "It's just a little strain. I just felt it tighten up a little bit."

Asked if he could play extensively and well against Minnesota without playing in a game since January, Grant replied, "I expect to. Absolutely. And I'm prepared to play in a preseason game. Whether or not I do is up to the coaches."

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__4/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-620263776-1219433070.jpg?ym6lXrADL..ptoR8Nonetheless, questions about Grant's health and his readiness have forced him out of the first round in fantasy drafts. His current ADP at Mock Draft Central is 14.6. If you take Randy Moss in the middle of Round 1 in a 10-team league, you're looking at Grant in Round 2. That combination would have won you a fantasy championship last year. Brandon Jackson, a former sleeper who became a bust who's become a sleeper again, is the appropriate handcuff for Grant.

Jennings is simply a playmaker, capable of turning short slants into long, game-changing touchdowns. He found the end zone 12 times in only 13 games last season, and averaged 17.4 yards per reception (7.4 YAC). Check the game log and admire all the 40-plus yard plays. Jennings has been sidelined by knee soreness, but he should be available to face Denver in the Pack's third exhibition game.

Longtime Favre favorite Donald Driver is a couple tiers below Jennings, fantasy-wise, but he remains an acceptable WR3. The 33-year-old's ceiling has been established (see 2004-06 for details); 24-year-old James Jones' ceiling is not yet known, but it seems fairly high. Green Bay selected Kansas State receiver Jordy Nelson with the 36th overall pick in the NFL Draft, but if he's going to make an impact this season, it's likely to be as a return specialist. Jones is well ahead of Nelson.

Donald Lee was the eighth highest-scoring fantasy tight end in 2007, finishing with 85 public league points. Because of the depth at the position, however, Lee in 15th in our preseason position ranks, and he's only owned in 62 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

The Packers defense should be worth owning all season, thanks in part to the user-friendly quarterbacks of the NFC North. The best Green Bay IDP options are Nick Barnett (131 tackles), Aaron Kampman (64 tackles, 12 sacks), AJ Hawk (105 tackles, dealing with a chest injury) and Atari Bigby (86 tackles, 5 INTs, ugly penalties, delightful name).

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2007 Green Bay team stats

Rushing: 99.8 Y/G

Passing: 270.9 Y/G

Points per game: 27.2

Turnovers: 24

Red Zone possessions and TDs: 50, 27

'08 Schedule strength: .531

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The rest of the Index...

32) Chicago, 31) Tennessee, 30) San Francisco, 29) Miami, 28) Baltimore, 27) NY Jets, 26) Oakland, 25) Tampa Bay, 24) Atlanta, 23) Houston, 22) Kansas City, 21) Buffalo, 20) Carolina, 19) Detroit, 18) Seattle, 17) Denver, 16) Washington, 15) St. Louis, 14) Minnesota, 13) Arizona, 12) Jacksonville, 11) Cincinnati, 10) Philadelphia, 9) Pittsburgh, 8) Green Bay

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Photos via Getty Images

Important boilerplate: Keep the comments civil, everyone. It's OK to go off-topic, but it's not OK to insult and/or impersonate other members of the community. Please note that our fantasy experts will never post actionable news via comments. If we have a player recommendation, we'll blog it.

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40 Comments

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  1. John L
    1. Posted by John L Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:14 pm EDT

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    First! I knew the Pack was next.... Grant is gonna stumble out of the gate, and Rodgers will struggle early too, but both will have good years
  2. John L
    2. Posted by John L Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:14 pm EDT

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    7)Giants, 6)Saints, 5)Browns, 4) Chargers, 3)Patriots, 2)Colts, 1)Cowboys
    Go Bolts!
  3. Jay Mac
    3. Posted by Jay Mac Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

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    I'm not sure why people are so high on Grant....I think the way that GB's recievers and the dude playing QB last year had alot to do with an undrafted player bursting on the scene.
    But I could be wrong. I know I'm not taking him in any drafts.
  4. pianow
    4. Posted by pianow Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    It's hard to get Grant's two-month ballistic run out of my head. Real, or Memorex? Ahman Green's first breakthrough half-season was validated the next year, I'm trusting Grant will do the same (not that those two things are related at all).
    It's amazing to think of the depth the Giants had at RB last year, where Green started. I'll miss Favre throwing those pretty slants to Jennings and Driver.
    This is your one and only Pianow contribution to the thread. When in doubt, click through, peeps. Good luck in your drafts this weekend.
  5. Xobai
    5. Posted by Xobai Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

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    That is the hottest Packer cheerleader I have ever seen. My wife will be so jealous when she sees that on my cache.
    Grant is a solo RB in an NFL that's increasingly going to dual backfields, and plays in the cold during fantasy playoff time. Definitely worth his second-round draft position.
    Keep Jordy Nelson in mind in a couple of years. I saw him play last year, and I swear he couldn't be covered if he was in bed and the D a quilt. He's going to be great, though probably not this season... watch for a third-year breakout in 2010.
  6. Hello H
    6. Posted by Hello H Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:49 pm EDT

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    I would agree if they scored a TD vs the 49ers, which they were unable to do
  7. Robby K
    7. Posted by Robby K Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:38 pm EDT

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    John L sees it exactly like I do. I don't know why people think the Pats should be first. Two studs, good PPR guy and a little above average everything else. The Colts or Cowboys should hold top spot.
  8. sir long and thick (BEAST MODE)
    8. Posted by sir long and thick (BEAST MODE) Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:19 pm EDT

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    5thhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
    owned jones last year and was very solid from week to week, but was only used in favorable matchups, i think that he will pass drvier this year on the dpth chart, making it jennings, and jones
  9. a-mak15
    9. Posted by a-mak15 Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:51 pm EDT

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    "You’d like to say that yesterday’s history, tomorrow’s a mystery, and today’s a gift. That’s why they call it the present."
    He quoted 'Kung Fu Panda.' I'm not investing in Grant and the lack of QB experience is worrisome to me as a Jennings owner. I honestly thought Rodgers would retire before getting a snap in.
  10. Kyle
    10. Posted by Kyle Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:40 pm EDT

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    7)Giants, 6)Browns, 5)Chargers, 4) Saints 3)Colts, 2)Patriots, 1)Cowboys
  11. aaronjab
    11. Posted by aaronjab Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:43 pm EDT

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    Andy-- You realize he's quoting the turtle from Kung-Fu Panda, right?
  12. Lee Majors
    12. Posted by Lee Majors Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

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    My child is not allowed to see movies about Bears, so no.
  13. Lee Majors
    13. Posted by Lee Majors Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

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    Rodgers continued: "So, I’m trying to enjoy each day and realize that things that have happened in the past have happened for a reason. We’ve moved forward; they’ve moved forward."
    Right on.
  14. Tyler M
    14. Posted by Tyler M Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:25 pm EDT

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    sd is getting too much love..and im a fan of them. no has fire power..with that depth at rb...brees is a stud. shockey will be great with brees. brees threw to gates when gates was dominant..brees will utilize shock well. colston is a stud and meacham has so much potential..
    and ne has to be 1..
    2 of the top 10 players on their team. plus depth at rb. many sleepers, and wes welker..
    dallas is very close behind them though.
    7. giants
    6. browns
    5. chargers..with gates' injury..and no stud wr..rivers..how can they be ahead of no?
    4. saints
    3. colts
    2. cowboys
    1. pats
  15. redsoxfan4242
    15. Posted by redsoxfan4242 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:34 pm EDT

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    im sorry but how the hell are the giants above green bay and half the teams that were listed before.
  16. Tom Bos Jr.
    16. Posted by Tom Bos Jr. Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    I have actually heard Eleanor Roosevelt use this quote, so it's root is definitely not Kung Fu Panda. I believe yoga teachers use it a lot, so it must come from wherever they get their 'material' (I'm not familiar with the origins of yoga slogans). He could have picked it up from one of several sources, but he is still lame for saying it
    And the Packers are going to regress this season, no doubt about it. I thought we *weren't* supposed to use last year's stats. Favre may not be the best QB in history, but his totals from last year were statistically one of his best seasons, which is going to be a far cry from what Rodgers does in this, his first season.
  17. Phillip H
    17. Posted by Phillip H Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:12 pm EDT

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    If by regress you mean he want throw the ball wide-open to a corner from another team for a pick six, then that is regression Tom. He will have a very solid year, he has a good defense, a great line, a great kicker, and a great running back. He will be put in a position to be successful and he will. I tell you this, this kid is not a choke artist like Favre, he proved in the Dallas game when Favre was lost and running for his life.
    Favre has always been a double agent in big games for as long as I can remember. Don't forget that Super Bowl against the Broncos.
    Miami will cover week 1!
  18. Karbin
    18. Posted by Karbin Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:46 pm EDT

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    7. Giants
    6. Chargers (2 trick pony (Tomlinson & Gates), but those are some good tricks)
    5. Browns (All dependent on Anderson though, as the QB goes so goes the rest of the team. If Anderson sucks then the Browns will fall to the bottom half of the league, and I'm a Browns fan)
    4. Saints (Could move past the Pats, if Brees doesn't start like he did last year)
    3. Pats (Maroney's a scrub, great passing offense, # 1 QB, Sweet D)
    2. Cowboys (Romo, Owens, Barber, Top 10 D)
    1. Colts (Manning, Wayne, Healthy Harrison, Clarke, Addai, D will surprise)
  19. Karbin
    19. Posted by Karbin Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:46 pm EDT

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    Crap, i forgot about Witten for Dallas, that may move them up to 1a.
  20. Tails
    20. Posted by Tails Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:54 pm EDT

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    7. New York
    6. Cleveland
    5. New Orleans
    4. San Diego
    3. Dallas
    2. Indianapolis
    1. New England
    It looks like to be a top fantasy index team you have to have a good QB or LT. Or win the superbowl, in which case it doesn't matter that Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville have better fantasy offenses than you.
  21. betu95
    21. Posted by betu95 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:05 pm EDT

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    7. Giants (How can they be this high? Even Seattle is better)
    6. Cleveland (Rising Offense and O-Line)
    5. San Diego (LT is aging and will suck, Gates is injured)
    4. New Orleans (Great, young offense. Made a mark last year)
    3. Indianapolis (Most consistent offense around)
    2. Cowboys (AWESOME OFFENSE. Will easily make SUPERBOWL XLIII)
    1. Patriots. (Only team with top 2 top 10 players, top QB and WR. Big dissapointment last year. Should go 14-2 and win tight Superbowl match against Coybows)
  22. Kevin
    22. Posted by Kevin Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

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    7) Giants
    6) Browns
    5) Patriots
    4) Saints
    3) Chargers
    2) Colts
    1) Cowboys
  23. theillest2000
    23. Posted by theillest2000 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:04 pm EDT

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    7/ Colts
    6/ Cowboys
    5/ Patriots
    4/ Chargers
    3/ Browns
    2/ Giants
    1/ Saints
  24. Phillip H
    24. Posted by Phillip H Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:12 pm EDT

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    One more thing, Ryan Grant is gonna have a solid year, he torched a very good Seattle defense an his numbers against the Bears and Lions should offset his two games vs the vikes this year.
    1400 yds rushing, 300 yds receiving, 10-12 tds.
  25. Reppin 4rm Big D to Jrzy
    25. Posted by Reppin 4rm Big D to Jrzy Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:38 pm EDT

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    i can't tell who'll finish higher: browns or saints....both have terrible fantasy d.....brees is more proven than anderson....HEALTHY Duece/Reggie is better than Post-2004 Jamal, shockey more proven than winslow but the both got problems with keeping healthy legs........browns o-line protects better than saints o-line....both have deep WR cores that are filled with injured WR's but I think edwards may be the main factor in giving the browns the edge over the saints

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