Roto Arcade - Fantasy

The Juggernaut Index is our annual attempt to rank every NFL team for fantasy purposes. We're not concerned with real-life wins and losses here. No, here we just care about imaginary winning. If an NFL team gains lots of yardage, limits turnovers, and scores when they reach the red zone, then you'll want to own their skill position players in fantasy leagues. You'll find those teams at the top of the Juggernaut Index. We began at No. 32, the worst of the worst, and we're working our way to the elite fantasy offenses.

These rankings rely on hard, incontrovertible math. There are algorithms at work. This stuff is peer-reviewed. Seasons are simulated. You can't argue with science, so don't even try...

30. San Francisco 49ers

Maybe your opinion on the Niners is one of those optimist/pessimist things.

An optimistic person might see their glass as half one-third 20 percent no more than 10 percent full. A pessimist would basically just see a big empty cup.

Yes, the Niners brought in Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator. But the offense could improve substantially and still be among the league's worst.

Here are a few of the grim facts:

The Niners averaged a league-worst 13.7 points per game last season. There were 21 NFL teams that averaged 20. The Patriots outscored the Niners by more than three touchdowns per week.

San Francisco was last in the NFL in total yards per game (237.3). Every other team was above 275.

The Niners were last in the league in passing yards per game (145.0), and the next-to-last team, Oakland, threw for nearly 20 more yards per game.

San Francisco was also last in the NFL in completion percentage (53.4), first downs per game (13.6), red zone possessions (29), third down percentage (31.4) and time of possession (27:07). They were 30th in turnover differential (-12). The Niners led the NFL in sacks allowed (55) and yards lost (365).

So the offense finished last in the NFL by wide margins in most of the important categories, and the team's biggest off-season addition was a coach, not a player.

Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson top the Niners' depth chart at receiver, and Ashley Lelie, Arnaz Battle and Jason Hill are behind them. None of those players are in the top 45 in our position rankings, and none have particularly high ceilings -- at least not while the quarterback situation remains such an uninteresting pileup.

The presumptive starter is still Alex Smith. But Martz stresses "getting the ball out quickly and accurately," and few would suggest that those are Smith's strengths. He completed only 48.7 percent of his passes in 2007, and his career completion percentage is 54.4.

Shaun Hill, who had useful fantasy lines in Weeks 14-16 last year, clearly has a chance to start:

Given Smith's physical advantages, is it fair to say he has an edge at this point?

"I wouldn't go there right now," (head coach Mike) Nolan said. "For one, I don't have to go there."

Challenger Shaun Hill tends to play better in games than he shows in practice, Nolan said. "Shaun's been OK in practice, but he's that type of player."

To which, Hill said, "I'm not sure that's a good thing when you're trying to win a job on the practice field."

Is it possible that this could be Vernon Davis' breakout season? Sure. We all know that he's fast, skilled, and that he was both injured and unhappy last season. He was certainly a disappointment in 2007, yet few observers put much of the blame on Davis himself.

Pro Football Weekly had an important note on him back in March, though:

In regard to Davis’ performance last season, one of his teammates told a team source that he had never seen an NFL starter make so many mistakes.

Frank Gore, of course, is great. From the glass-is-10-percent-full perspective (see above), Gore is that 10 percent. Four-receiver sets should create lanes that didn't exist in 2007. There's little doubt that Gore will be the centerpiece of the Niners' attack, that he'll be an excellent PPR play, and that he'll get all the targets he can handle. Gore's current average draft position at Mock Draft Central is 8.8, and it's deserved.

If there's any reason to be concerned -- other than Gore's injury history, the mediocrity of his supporting cast, and the team's on-field performance in '07 -- it's the rushing totals that Martzian attacks have produced. Over the past six seasons, his offenses have finished 30th (twice), 25th, 22nd, 32nd and 31st in rushing.

Oh, and San Francisco's defense scored only 101 fantasy points last year, the lowest total of any team. And Patrick Willis probably accounted for 70 of the points, either directly or indirectly.

Aside from Gore, there's just not much here for public leaguers to draft.

---

2007 San Francisco 49ers team stats

*** AVERT YOUR EYES! OR USE ONE OF THOSE PINHOLE PROJECTION THINGS! ***

Rushing: 92.3 Y/G

Passing: 145.0 Y/G

Points per game: 13.7

Turnovers: 34

Red Zone possessions and TDs: 29, 15

'08 Schedule strength: .484

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173 Comments

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  1. The World Famous Butt Pirate
    1. Posted by The World Famous Butt Pirate Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:03 pm EDT

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    I call Frank Gore "Radio."
  2. LeeVanSpleef
    2. Posted by LeeVanSpleef Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:48 pm EDT

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    He'll by injured by week 8, they got no one else and everybody knows it.
    I was lucky enough to be able to trade the guy for Moss last year straight up.
    Hi Stella!
    hahahahahah
  3. el Cruz Missle
    3. Posted by el Cruz Missle Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:16 pm EDT

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    good lord its disgusting to look at... since ive been a niners fan my whole life... time to move over to the cardinals :D lets go willis for IDP leagues!!
  4. J. Ro
    4. Posted by J. Ro Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    Huh, I was expecting the Dolphins next. Maybe they'll be 29. It seems like all they have going for them is Ronnie Brown, and Gore is rated more highly than Brown. Bruce, Bryant, and especially Davis seem like more intriguing receiver options than any of the Dolphins'.
  5. Lee Majors
    5. Posted by Lee Majors Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

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    Well, the Dolphins aren't far away, obviously. It's just that the actual '07 numbers for the Niners were so awful that with a big improvement, they'd still be...very bad.
  6. Mack
    6. Posted by Mack Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:50 pm EDT

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    oh cmon gore is aesome they brought in martz so there only gonna get better and willis is an f-in machine i say they go 6-10 in a couple a years the4y wont be 2 shabby watch out 4 gore in fantasy hes gonna destroy
  7. mesagreyhairs
    7. Posted by mesagreyhairs Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:16 pm EDT

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    The only STUD on the 49'ers is on the D side of the ball and he's a LB'er
  8. mnippes
    8. Posted by mnippes Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:24 pm EDT

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    gore will have a good year because he's going to catch more passes with martz as coordinator and he will be able to get rest with deshaun foster as his backup
  9. the kardude
    9. Posted by the kardude Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:46 pm EDT

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    Wow, I had figured the 49'ers would come in at #28, not so much that they have that much in the way of studs after you count Gore, but because of Martz. But I suppose that when you consider just how terrible the offense was in '07, you can't even expect Martz's magic to bring them up too much.
  10. Nathan S
    10. Posted by Nathan S Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:42 pm EDT

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    @ 49ers faithful - By "should of been 7", which 4 losses do you think they deserved victory on. Because their sweep of the Cardinals was absolutely unjust. Between E Green and his butterfingers failing to fall on a fumble in game 1, to Rackers missing a chipshot in game 2, not to mention many other unspeakable atrocities in those games, the sweep should have been the other way round. Niners were the 2nd worse team last year, to the Dolphins IMO and to argue you deserved more is incredulous to me. And what defence? By my account until they can clone another 10 Patrick Willis' their defence is well below average too.
  11. Invictus
    11. Posted by Invictus Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:24 pm EDT

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    I see the 9ers improving significantly (maybe not playoffs, but over 500 - how sad is that as an improvement?) but I also understand the view that only Gore will be worthwhile *in fantasy leagues*.
    I expect to see the ball spread around enough not to give any one wr big numbers. If any one QB can stay healthy, he should do alright, but not top-10 alright.
    I also see VD doing better than they give him credit for. His mistakes were largely with route running, and he'll be running a lot of short hot routes this season, exploiting blitzes for quick dump passes. At least, that's what Martz and Nolan say...
  12. ProffezrKat
    12. Posted by ProffezrKat Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:45 pm EDT

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    the niners won 5 games (I was at the cardinal overtime thriller). I didn't hear any talking about their defense, its not great but it was good enough to not be last. Offense sucked but with the offseason help, i see ALL UPSIDE FOR THE NINERS. I see wins over az, detroit, st louis, jets, and a steal win from washington in week 17, AT LEAST.
  13. jcballnt
    13. Posted by jcballnt Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:34 pm EDT

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    i see a 900 900 year out of gore. As far as the rest of the team, theres nothin else to talk about.
  14. benficarules20
    14. Posted by benficarules20 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:05 pm EDT

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    yahoo sports is a joke
    dont listen to anything they say
    there good for everything else except sports
    they dont know crap!!!
    want a real evaluation... go espn.com and then if they say niners are ganna suck then there u go
  15. niner_lover
    15. Posted by niner_lover Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:39 pm EDT

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    The Niners are horrible offensively, and most of the issues revolve around the QB position. We ran Garcia off. We couldn't handle T.O., and now we are stuck with Alex the bust Smith. The 49ers are actually decent on defense, but need one or two more play makers to help that part of the ball evolve. I will be at the Dallas game this year, and I am praying we treat that game like a Super Bowl. What has the world come too, when I have to look at one game as the biggest game of the year? The O-line and D-line need to evolve into strength in order for this team to make a comeback. Once that change happens the Niners will be considered a contender.
    Please let Walt Harris return to form of the year before Nate Clements got the big money. Also can the Niners bring back Parrish? Justin Smith, and Nate Clements need to play big this year, and Reggie Smith needs to come on strong. Tarrel Brown is a play maker but is still young. I hope that in the next three years the Niners can bounce back from this hell hole they have fallen in.
    Last but not least please get a new stadium. This could also help in bringing in Free Agent talent. Mike Singletary as the next head coach would also seem to be the move in the right direction.
  16. Daniel McGuire
    16. Posted by Daniel McGuire Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:19 pm EDT

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    Settle down, we all know the niners are goig to the playoffs next year. It's just a question of how deep in the playoffs they will go.
  17. Bill
    17. Posted by Bill Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:10 pm EDT

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    I don't know what dimension you're living in if you think the Niners are playoff bound this season. Maybe the one where Alex Smith isn't a bust and Frank Gore can stay healthy? The one where the Seahawks don't dominate the division year after year?
  18. Joyce j
    18. Posted by Joyce j Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:41 pm EDT

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    You guys are all full of crap. There is are things that are postive about the 49ers.I mean look at the team that won super bowl last year they did not have the best team last year and they won the super bowl, so come up off all that stuff. My 49ers rock!
  19. Jeff S
    19. Posted by Jeff S Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:38 pm EDT

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    Niners will not be going to the playoffs. Smoke another one....
  20. Gig43
    20. Posted by Gig43 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:05 pm EDT

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    Their starting qb, starting wr, starting rb, starting te, and starting lb were hurt last year. What did you guys expect? Combine that with an idiot offensive coordinator and you have a disaster. Things will get better. Playoffs? Probably not, but they will compete. And if they make the playoffs, all the best to them. The Cowboys will kill them, but who doesn't want to see a Niner Cowboy playoff game?
  21. Gee K
    21. Posted by Gee K Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:58 pm EDT

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    Niners Whiners!!! C'mon.....Shut Up!!
    The Niners were a great team fortunate enough to have 2 top notch QB's in a row!!!
    How many teams do you see around the league now, or in the past that had a lineage
    at QB to match that.
    Vernon Davis is a talented athelete, that has to learn to play football, Frank Gore is now aided by DeShaun Foster,
    Alex Smith has had 3 different co-ordinators in as many years, now at least he, or any other QB they put in charge,
    Has a Superbowl winning offensive co-ordinator, with more creativity than the last three put together!! And Thier Defense is already headed in the right direction..So quit whining!!!!
  22. Warriors in Berkeley
    22. Posted by Warriors in Berkeley Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:36 pm EDT

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    Maybe they'd be better off with "Jo Mo" as QB again?
  23. Victor P
    23. Posted by Victor P Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:38 pm EDT

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    niners can be good and will thanks to there young def and if they have a passing game frank gore is a top rb and will shine!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  24. Clos49er
    24. Posted by Clos49er Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:27 pm EDT

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    Gore will make it through the year, with a good 5 receiving TDs and 15 rushing, 1200 yds. The rest IDK, hey he did better than LJ who was drafted higher
  25. Gee K
    25. Posted by Gee K Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:58 pm EDT

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    Alex Smith...Shaun Hill....J. T. O'Sullivan...Hmmm
    I remember a young fellow from the Arena Leagues..Now what was his name? Oh yeah, Kurt Warner. !!!
    Well how about that for the definition of a bust!! An Arena League QB. Not even good enough to be a back-up
    in the NFL, well what could a guy like that do for any team..I mean c'mon!!....Oh come to think of it maybe with
    the right elements in place around him he could aspire to greatness....Naw..shucks..now I'm just being plain
    crazy!! Whatever did become of that Warner fellow anyway?? I wonder if he got over being an Arena League QB!!

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