Roto Arcade - Fantasy

The Juggernaut Index is our annual attempt to rank every NFL team for fantasy purposes. We're not concerned with real-life wins and losses here, only fantasy potential. These rankings rely on hard, incontrovertible math. There are algorithms at work. This stuff is peer-reviewed. Seasons are simulated. You can't argue with science, so don't even try...

22. Kansas City Chiefs

If there's anything that we in the fantasy community can do to facilitate the immediate Chiefification of Brett Favre, we'll do it. Cheerfully. Today. With verve.

That's not to say it would be the right move for the team, necessarily. Kansas City is rebuilding, and they're not simply one player away from Super Bowl contention...even if the player is an elite quarterback. This is not quite the Joe Montana scenario.

Still, we'd all feel better about the Chiefs' skill position players if Favre were under center, behind that sketchy offensive line. Kansas City is home to our No. 8 running back (Larry Johnson), our No. 22 wide receiver (Dwayne Bowe), and our No. 4 tight end (Tony Gonzalez). The Yahoo! experts composite rankings are not without Chiefs, but the team's fantasy potential is compromised in part by the quarterback situation.

(And yeah, it's ridiculous that you can't get 20 words into a fantasy preview about an AFC team without reading, again, about Brett Favre. But that's the world you inhabit, American. Please adjust). 

Brodie Croyle is a strong-armed, winless 25-year-old. He managed to top 200 passing yards in just one of his six starts last season, and he needed 43 attempts to get there. Croyle averaged only 5.48 yards per pass attempt for the year. Just to give you a few points of reference, Vince Young averaged 6.66, Favre averaged 7.77, and Tom Brady averaged 8.31. You're not drafting Croyle, except in two-quarterback leagues.

It should of course be noted that he received very little help from his O-line. They allowed a league-worst 55 sacks, and they were poor run-blockers. They did, however, become very skilled at assisting quarterbacks to their feet. The Chiefs added an exceptional lineman in the NFL Draft, Virginia guard Branden Albert, and he's expected to move to tackle as a rookie. Here's Rivals' assessment:

He has all the tools to dominate as both a run and pass blocker at the next level. He also projects to left tackle because of his impressive physical talent. He is the best guard prospect since Pro Bowler Steve Hutchinson from the 2001 NFL Draft class.

The Chiefs had an excellent draft, adding not only Albert, but also DT Glenn Dorsey and CB Brandon Flowers. Those three should contribute in Week 1, though not directly in fantasy leagues.

But let's return to the Chiefs' offensive line, which is like a big, scary experiment. Here are a few details from the Yahoo! Chiefs Team Report:

Only (LG Brian) Waters, a three-time Pro Bowl pick, has extended time at his position. All four others have little or no NFL time at their spots ... (Damion) McIntosh was a capable left tackle for nine seasons before being shifted to the right side for the first time in his career. (Adrian) Jones was primarily a tackle for coach Herm Edwards’ Jets, but has seen spot play up and down the line and will be tried at right guard.

So there are a few deck chairs being rearranged.

It dims enthusiasm for Larry Johnson, though LJ has declared that he's recovered from the foot injury suffered in a two-touchdown performance against the Packers in Week 9: "Body-wise, I’m 100 percent."

Draft-wise, I'm not letting him fall past the 10th overall pick.

Johnson's current ADP at Mock Draft Central is 10.39. There was never any question about whether LJ's performance was going to decline in 2007, considering the changes on the line. You still have to like him for fantasy purposes, however, because his share of the workload is so great. (Hello, Chan Gailey). In last year's disappointing eight-game season, Johnson still had three 100-yard rushing efforts and four TDs.

You'll definitely need to care about the handcuff situation if you invest in LJ. Kolby Smith was serviceable in Johnson's absence, though he had his only truly useful game against the Raiders' abysmal rush defense. We've actually ranked small-ish rookie Jamaal Charles slightly higher than Smith. Charles' official 40 time at the scouting combine was 4.38, so the home-run potential is there. Still, the Chiefs running back hierarchy isn't perfectly clear just yet. If you draft LJ, you may need to handcuff the handcuff.

Bowe and Gonzalez are the Chiefs' draft-worthy receiving threats. In an average league they're taken within a few picks of one another, near the end of Round 6. Gonzalez's ADP is 59.68, while Bowe's is 61.78. There are no credible threats among the WR2 candidates. Devard Darling, Jeff Webb and rookie Will Franklin are in the mix, though none are likely to achieve fantasy relevance in '08. With Croyle at the controls, you can expect the passing yardage to be modest, and Bowe, Gonzlez and LJ to own most of it.

Last season's numbers for the 4-12 Chiefs were particularly ugly. They were last in average rushing yards, next-to-last in points per game and rushing TDs, and they had very few red zone possessions. They could improve significantly in those categories and still not be league-average. Thus, it's tough to rank them higher than 22, despite the marquee names.

But again, if you were to add another familiar name, perhaps an un-retiring 38-year-old quarterback, well...

---

2007 Kansas City team stats

Rushing: 78.0 Y/G

Passing: 220.3 Y/G

Points per game: 14.1

Turnovers: 33

Red Zone possessions and TDs: 35, 17

'08 Schedule strength: .453

---

The rest of the Index...

32) Chicago, 31) Tennessee, 30) San Francisco, 29) Miami, 28) Baltimore, 27) NY Jets, 26) Oakland, 25) Tampa Bay, 24) Atlanta, 23) Houston, 22) Kansas City

digg delicious
more

187 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. Blake H
    1. Posted by Blake H Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:52 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    LJ is god. Chief Nation!!!!!!!! Bowe will have a monster year: 1,200 rec yrds, 8 TD. HELLO PRO BOWL, but no super bowl just yet.... go chiefs
  2. Joe M
    2. Posted by Joe M Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:42 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I like your biased comments, LJ will struggle, and the Chiefs will be lucky to go 8-8
  3. Jimbo
    3. Posted by Jimbo Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:15 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    The less I hear about Favre the happier I will be.
  4. Kenny G
    4. Posted by Kenny G Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:09 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I bleed Chiefs red every single year---im about dry---i need a transfusion by the name of brett farve
  5. Cory K
    5. Posted by Cory K Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:26 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    LJ is going to be the Shaun Alexander of 2008, no way am I going to take him this year
  6. JuNtAvIrUs
    6. Posted by JuNtAvIrUs Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:08 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Um...what?
  7. Mayne Man
    7. Posted by Mayne Man Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:41 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Looks like the Raiders are still having to compete with the cheifs on who's gunna bust this year!!! GO BRONCOS!!!!!!!!
  8. DMan
    8. Posted by DMan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:16 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Cheifs suck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  9. haganbro2
    9. Posted by haganbro2 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:15 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Chiefs are looking at 6-10 this year at best with that cupcake schedule. Croyle is not the solution. They should look long and hard in a package including LJ to the Browns for Quinn at the end of this year if Anderson doesn't get hurt and keeps the starting job.
  10. DMan
    10. Posted by DMan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:16 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Cheifs suck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  11. Jonny Rotten
    11. Posted by Jonny Rotten Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    chiefs are perenial losers
  12. johnnieg
    12. Posted by johnnieg Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Not a big fan of Herm Edwards or Carl Peterson. If your gonna approach the game with a low scoring,defensive minded team at least get a top notch place kicker. The Chiefs dont need Farve,they need a damn kicker-among other things. Yes they had an excellent draft but that success will not translate in the first year,it will take some time. Im a long time,harcore Chiefs fan but im thinking 6-10 at best.
  13. Rich
    13. Posted by "Rich" Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:40 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Who cares about the Chiefs? They're completely irrelevant with the Chargers dominating the AFC West. GO BOLTS!
  14. teedub
    14. Posted by teedub Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:16 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    DMan can't spell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I agree with the 6-10 prediction, though.
  15. garycarrotte
    15. Posted by garycarrotte Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:59 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Andy, I still don't see where all the love is for Bowe. He's a good receiver, but I don't like the situation he's in. 1) Croyle's just plain awful, and you need someone good to throw you the ball, and 2) There is awful WR support for him, no legitimate #2 WR- Devard Darling? please.. Bowe will be doubled all day and good corner's will make his Sunday's hell. Stay away from Bowe!! Tony G is the only Chief i'll consider drafting...
  16. TIM
    16. Posted by TIM Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:19 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    superbowl champs..............redrover redrover send Favre on over...........heard me?
  17. kaveman
    17. Posted by kaveman Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:50 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    he had the same WR cast that he had last year, only an upgrade over slammie parker.
    he's had a year of developing rapport with brodie croyle, who now has an o-line to protect him.
    LJ is healthy, that automatically upgrades the Chiefs offense.
    as a ROOKIE he had 995 yards. most rookies don't sniff that.
    Chiefs Offensive powers are LJ, Gonzo, and Bowe. you can't double Gonzo AND Bowe, or LJ will run all over you. if you don't double Gonzo and Bowe, they will hurt you. possibles for #2: darling, webb, sippio, franklin. all 4 of them upgrades over slammie parker
  18. J T
    18. Posted by J T Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:36 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    to number 9...what?..the browns wont want to take on a 30 year old RB..they already have one in Lewis who they just signed to a multi year deal....They could maybe package some picks...if they have any of those left...I think they already traded their first round pick in 09...anyway to number 1 this team is gonna struggle...Croyle is not good...Bowe will not hit 1200 yds and will be lucky to have7 TDS with LJ getting goal line carries...not a good fantasy team...Herm Edwards sucks..he used what Parcells built in NY then ruined it now he is using what Vermeil built in KC and is in the process of...yep...ruining it..I say if not at the end of this year the in 2010 he gets fired...
  19. kerndog
    19. Posted by kerndog Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:49 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I've bleed chiefs red and gold my whole life and if they only win 4 games this year that would be fine with me as long it the denver Donkeys and the ghay raiders!!!! GO Chiefs
  20. Jim226
    20. Posted by Jim226 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:43 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Nineteenth!!!!
  21. Bubba
    21. Posted by Bubba Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:46 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Chargers Rule!
  22. All4God
    22. Posted by All4God Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Hey Behrens, do you wanna join my ffl league? It's default settings except instead of 3 WRs, there are 2 with a flex RB/WR. We've had it going for a little while now, but we need another owner and we would be honored to have a "fantasy expert" like you be the final owner.
  23. Kevlar
    23. Posted by Kevlar Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Here we go again. Don't get another teams leftovers, That is what the chiefs did through out the 90's and they were allways good but never good enough. One player does make a differnce but Brett Farve? The Chiefs have other concerns. Like a line to block, or a better D that can make a stop.
  24. C Squared
    24. Posted by C Squared Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:44 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    chiefs 5-11
  25. C Squared
    25. Posted by C Squared Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:44 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    chiefs 5-11

Roto Arcade

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

Andy Behrens

Roto Arcade is a fantasy sports blog edited by Andy Behrens. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

Y! Sports Blogs

Roto Arcade Recent Readers