Roto Arcade - Fantasy

The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking of NFL teams for fantasy purposes. Repeat: FOR FANTASY PURPOSES. We're interested in yards and points here. These ranks are astonishingly accurate and highly collectible. Please enjoy them responsibly.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__18/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-318815483-1252472926.jpg?ymfxM3BD8FkfFjEs

1. Houston Texans

In their seven years of existence, the Texans have never finished above .500 and they've never made the playoffs. The last important thing they won was the top pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. This is not exactly one of the league's most decorated franchises.

It can be argued (not well) that Houston's placement atop the 2009 Juggernaut Index is the greatest achievement in team history. When you sort through all the preseason ranks and ADPs, it's tough to make a case for any other squad. Consider these facts:

Houston has two players who rank inside the overall top 12;

You'll find Texans rated among the top 10 fantasy options at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and kicker;

Five Texans were taken within the first 100 picks in a typical draft, and two were selected inside the top 20;

Houston's defense has a pair of elite IDPs – Mario Williams(notes) and DeMeco Ryans(notes) – yet the team D is still a sieve. The Texans allowed 24.6 points per game in '08 and 22.8 in the preseason. Every game has shootout potential.

It's a perfect fantasy storm, really. Houston offers high-end options at every position, each player's role is well defined, and the defense offers little resistance. (During exhibition play, the Texans' D specialized in giving up long rushing touchdowns. You'll find tape of Xavier Adibi(notes) over-pursuing here and of widespread disarray here). Unlike many analysts, we're not trying to convince you that the Texans will be a division winner…or any other sort of winner. We're merely urging you to invest in them for fantasy purposes.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__18/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-425187833-1252472906.jpg?ymKxM3BD9gR5RW0oQuarterback Matt Schaub(notes) has completed 66.2 percent of his passes over the past two seasons, and he threw for at least 250 yards in eight of his 11 games last year. He was one of the great bargains during draft season, with an ADP of 79.9. If you don't think he's a threat to crack the top five overall fantasy scorers in '09, then you haven't been paying attention.

Schaub's signature game in '08 was...well, there are really two candidates. It might have been Week 6 against Miami, when he passed for 379 yards and rushed for the game-winning TD in the final seconds. Or it may have been Week 14, when Schaub returned from a knee injury and threw for a career-high 414 yards in the brutal cold in Green Bay, leading his team to a 24-21 win. In that Packers game, he earned must-start status in fantasy leagues.

Before you complain that Schaub is a health risk, review the circumstances of each injury. Schaub carries the least deserved injury-prone label in NFL history. If it weren't for late and/or cheap hits by Albert Haynesworth(notes), Drayton Florence(notes) and Jared Allen(notes) – all penalized or fined – you wouldn't consider Schaub to be so delicate. (The Allen hit was as dirty as it gets. Way late, criminally cheap). Houston's offensive line is an underrated unit, too, but that's residue from the David Carr(notes) years.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__18/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-899435506-1252517481.jpg?ymqpX3BDJcLyZCFqThe Texans' receiving corps is spectacular, one of the NFL's finest. Andre Johnson(notes) has led the league in receptions twice and he's averaged 6.8 catches per game over the past three seasons. That's just a ridiculous number. He also led the NFL in receiving yards last year (1575).

Houston's No. 2 receiver is Kevin Walter(notes), a man who's quietly delivered back-to-back 60-catch, 800-yard seasons. Walter was drafted as a low-end fantasy starter this year (ADP 78.1), and he's a safe bet to return at least a small profit. Andre Davis has proven to be a useful fantasy play whenever an opportunity presents itself; he caught 23 passes for 441 yards and three TDs during Johnson's seven-game absence in '07.

Pro Bowl tight end Owen Daniels(notes) is a pet player for many accredited fantasy gurus, and you can't argue with the catches or the yardage. He has 133 receptions for 1630 yards since '07. The only thing keeping Daniels out of the top-tier is a curious lack of touchdowns. He's found the end zone only five times in two seasons. You'll note that the Texans were frequent visitors to the red zone last year (61 possessions), but they didn't break the plane at a high rate (TD percentage 45.9). Daniels is 26, he's in search of Kellen Winslow(notes) money and his offense is terrific, so don't be shocked by a career year.

Running back Steve Slaton(notes) was one of the great late round picks/waiver adds of 2008. Despite doubts about his size (5-9), he ran for 1282 yards in his first year (4.8 per carry), he caught 50 passes and he scored 10 TDs. Slaton had 20 or more carries in five of the Texans' final six games. He enters '09 as the unchallenged feature back, and he's added weight (up to 215) in order to better handle the load.

Unfortunately, veteran Chris Brown is likely to poach a few touchdowns. Head coach Gary Kubiak recently described Brown's role this way: "Our goal is to use him basically as a short-yardage runner, a red zone runner and Steve's (Slaton) backup, so we have to plan to go about our business and hopefully we can keep him healthy." Be careful not to interpret Kubiak's statement as an indication that Slaton will be sidelined on all red zone possessions. Rather, he's saying that Brown won't be part of the equation except in short-yardage, or in case of emergency. 

And that, at last, concludes the 2009 Juggernaut Index. Thank you all for your participation and input. If you buy a PLUS league you'll receive all 32 entries, leather-bound. Order today, gamers. Or simply express your gratitude in comments, like always…

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The complete Index: 32) Oakland, 31) Cleveland, 30) St. Louis, 29) Miami, 28) NY Jets, 27) Baltimore, 26) Washington, 25) San Francisco, 24) Tampa Bay, 23) Kansas City, 22) Detroit, 21) Seattle, 20) Buffalo, 19) Cincinnati, 18) Jacksonville, 17) New York Giants, 16) Tennessee, 15) Pittsburgh, 14) Denver, 13) Chicago, 12) Minnesota, 11) Arizona, 10) Green Bay, 9) Dallas, 8) Carolina, 7) Atlanta, 6) Indianapolis, 5) San Diego, 4) New England, 3) Philadelphia, 2) New Orleans, 1) Houston. 

Sign up for Football '09, now with FREE live scoring. Check out the Yahoo! Sports/Pro Football Weekly guides, too.

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170 Comments

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  1. NIMNIM Z
    1. Posted by NIMNIM Z Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:45 pm EDT

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    they deserve it
    first playoff year this year
    GO TEXANS
  2. NIMNIM Z
    2. Posted by NIMNIM Z Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:45 pm EDT

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    they deserve it
    first playoff year this year
    GO TEXANS
  3. Jeff
    3. Posted by Jeff Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:45 pm EDT

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    Bolts should be number one
  4. Ali
    4. Posted by Ali Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:45 pm EDT

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    the saints are definately no. 1
  5. David W
    5. Posted by David W Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:46 pm EDT

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    Houston #1? Colts have the potential to be as good or better at WR1, WR2, QB, TE, and although not likely, possibly at RB.
  6. Glen
    6. Posted by Glen Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:48 pm EDT

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    "If you buy a PLUS league you'll receive all 32 entries, leather-bound." Was he serious about this? LoL seriously... a 32 page book?
  7. Nathan S
    7. Posted by Nathan S Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:49 pm EDT

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    First. Gotta be a prick once.
  8. chris
    8. Posted by chris Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:55 pm EDT

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    I think you got this one right. If I could pick one team to have all of there fantasy plays this would be the one.
  9. John L
    9. Posted by John L Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:01 pm EDT

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    we could see this coming a few weeks ago when you posted that teaser comment around number 15 or 16 about not even being halfway to the texans.
    If you guys believed in LT or Norv's comments at all, SD would be here hands down.
  10. STEALTH
    10. Posted by STEALTH Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:10 pm EDT

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    not that I really love either team, but I think the Saints should be ahead of the Texans instead of the reverse case.
    I am, however, still sour over the poor Packers ranking. Too much Illinois bias. Greg Olsen this, Benson is terrible that... okay, so Benson is terrible... not as terrible as you make him out to be. The guy can fall forward for a few yards on most touches, which is more credit than you give him. But yeah, you can't sell short Rodgers, Grant, Jennings, Driver, Jones, Nelson, Ruvell Martin (the best 5th WR in the NFL), and Finley/Lee...
  11. million_dollar_sleeper
    11. Posted by million_dollar_sleeper Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:14 pm EDT

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    andre johnson is scary, keep him away from my team. all qbs have injury risks
    i still havent had a reasonable shot at schaub... ohhh i hate my qbs.
  12. KellyS
    12. Posted by KellyS Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:16 pm EDT

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    Well, time to trade Kevin Walter in both leagues I drafted him in.... This is a sure-fire jinx on the Texans season.
    Just look at what you guys did to the Cowboys last year!
  13. Kris
    13. Posted by Kris Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:19 pm EDT

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    colts are such trash in fantasy..wayne and manning are completely over-rated. fantasy wise, the only better player that have compared to the texans is in the TE position and even with that, daniels is catching up. they got this pick right.
  14. MJ$
    14. Posted by MJ$ Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:19 pm EDT

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    I am HEAVILY invested in this team's offense, with good reason. In 1 league I own Schaub, Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Kris Brown... WHAT!
  15. John L
    15. Posted by John L Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:19 pm EDT

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    SD vs. Houston comparison
    QB, Rivers over Schaub (substantially)
    RB1, Tomlinson over Slaton
    RB2, Sproles over Brown
    WR1, Andre Johnson over Vincent Jackson (substantially IMO)
    WR2, Kevin Walter over Chambers (although I expect these two to close the gap this year)
    TE, Gates over Daniels
    Team D, Chargers definitely drafted, Texans definitely not
    Kicker, Kaeding in top 2 or 3, Brown in top 10 maybe
    IDP, two elite options on HOU, several great options on SD
    In a 2 qb league, SD is favored hands down, but I still don't see the justification for the #5 ranking, even in a standard league
  16. mike
    16. Posted by mike Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:22 pm EDT

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    And to think, I have Shaub, Slaton and Walter on my fantasy team. Now where can I collect my trophy at the end of the year?
  17. Raiderade
    17. Posted by Raiderade Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:22 pm EDT

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    Not a terrible rank but, why rank Nawlins #2 and talk down every player except Brees? WTF?
  18. wally01157
    18. Posted by wally01157 Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:22 pm EDT

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    TEXANS #1...I like it....great board, but i think Philly was too high
  19. corey c
    19. Posted by corey c Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:22 pm EDT

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    Benson plays in Ohio now. Last year too.
  20. GuitarMark
    20. Posted by GuitarMark Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:23 pm EDT

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    I wound up with Schaub as my BACKUP in one league (Rivers as starter). I'm starting to think that league won't be a challenge.
  21. Zach the Lumberjack
    21. Posted by Zach the Lumberjack Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:24 pm EDT

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    Great series! The Saints WR and RBs aren't nearly as effective as Houston's. Very good choice.
  22. MJ$
    22. Posted by MJ$ Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:26 pm EDT

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    Good work with the list minus a few.
    Eagles at #3 is down right laughable.
  23. Hot Patata
    23. Posted by Hot Patata Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:27 pm EDT

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    Texans. Wow. Surpising, but not wholly inappropriate. I still might go with San Diego or the Eagles first, but I like a bold pick. Also, I've got Slaton and Schaub in one league. Oh, and Stealth: Why on Earth CAN'T we sell Ryan Grant short? Like you wouldn't be sobbing over the waiver wire if he was your RB1...
  24. Hot Patata
    24. Posted by Hot Patata Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:28 pm EDT

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    Texans. Wow. Surpising, but not wholly inappropriate. I still might go with San Diego or the Eagles first, but I like a bold pick. Also, I've got Slaton and Schaub in one league. Oh, and Stealth: Why on Earth CAN'T we sell Ryan Grant short? Like you wouldn't be sobbing over the waiver wire if he was your RB1...
  25. JC
    25. Posted by JC Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:29 pm EDT

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    "Schaub carries the least deserved injury-prone label in NFL history."
    See, its not HOW he gets injured...its the fact he DOES get injured. Sure, the situations might be dirty plays, but they still happen to him A LOT which is why it is a deserved injury prone tag. Need to find a better argument for putting up a QB so high who routinely misses 5 games every year now and has already been injured this preseason.

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