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Wed Jun 17, 2009 12:53 pm EDT

Joe Mauer and the path to .400

By Andy Behrens

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__13/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-987678219-1245256297.jpg?ymp5qbBDmpHXmxsdAfter Tuesday's four-hit performance, Joe Mauer's(notes) batting average is a ridiculous .429. He's reached base safely in 16 straight games and he's hitting .456 this month. In Minnesota, they started having the Ted Williams conversation two weeks ago.

No, not the freeze-Mauer's-head conversation. The other one -- the .400 discussion.

Mauer doesn't quite qualify for the batting average leaderboard just yet because he hasn't reached the minimum number of plate appearances. However, since Mauer would still lead the A.L. in average if you added the appropriate number of hitless at-bats to his current total, he'd be awarded the title if the season ended today. That's MLB's rule, not mine. (Rule 10.22 to be precise). Mauer would get to keep his .429 average, too.

Don't completely dismiss .400 as an impossibility in the modern era. It's a plateau that's actually been reached over stretches of 162 consecutive games in recent years, though not within a single season. Tony Gwynn hit .402 between July 27, 1993 and May 13, 1995; Wade Boggs hit .401 between June 9, 1985 and June 6, 1986.

Mauer has had terrific luck on balls in play this year (.443 BABIP), and you can't reasonably expect that pace to continue. Still, the 26-year-old does have a pair of batting crowns to his credit. It's not difficult to argue that Mauer is a hitter of Gwynn/Boggs quality. If he continues to draw walks at his current rate (13.3 BB%) and he manages to get another 320 plate appearances, this blog's research department believes that a .386 rest-of-season average would allow Mauer to finish at .400.

Of course, a .386 average is crazy-high. It's a wild longshot and Mauer plays baseball's most physically demanding position. But if he were to DH a bit more frequently, and if he were to keep his at-bat total low, and if he could take advantage of rule 10.22, well...it's not entirely unimaginable, right?

Let's hear your forecast in comments. Some of us have midseason drafts tonight, and projecting Mauer is an urgent matter.

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Photo via Getty Images

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287 Comments

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  1. Lee Majors
    1. Posted by Lee Majors Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:06 pm EDT

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    He's still no Wieters, obviously.
  2. Chris H
    2. Posted by Chris H Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:06 pm EDT

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    He'll have a cool streak that will drop him below the .400 mark, but I would say, at the rate he is starting, .350 is a good possibility as long as he doesn't try to play through any semi-severe injury.
  3. TaterSalad
    3. Posted by TaterSalad Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:06 pm EDT

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    Mauer is a top 20 fantasy player right now. Heck, if I had a midseason draft, I would probalby draft him in the 1st round. The guy is a stud. Even though he may not be able to keep the 400 average up, there's no reason why he can't at least bat 350 the rest of the year. And in that lineup, RBIS and RUNS will come.
  4. david b
    4. Posted by david b Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:27 pm EDT

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    I guess people can finally stop complaining that the Twins couldn't draft Mark Prior because of bonus expectations and instead had to settle for Mauer, thus proving how terribly unfair the MLB economic system is?
  5. TimmyT
    5. Posted by TimmyT Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:28 pm EDT

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    some dud rejected my offer of my mauer for his quentin at the beginning of the season
    guess we cant all be psychic
  6. The Beer Dude
    6. Posted by The Beer Dude Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:34 pm EDT

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    Mauer Power baby! In order to be the best you must lose your mind... and that's exactly what Mauer has done. Just like Luke Skywalker, Mauer is using the Force and is going to hit over .400 for the season!
  7. beefcake
    7. Posted by beefcake Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:43 pm EDT

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    NO reason to think Joe Mauer can't hit .400. People cant pitch around him with arguably an even better hitter with the Canuck Morneau batting behind him. THe Twins are crazy talented. I would be shocked if they don't pull out that AL Central. That rat Liriano needs to start pitching like Johan Jr. like he used to. How can anyone not love the Twins style of ball, baby?
  8. Kress
    8. Posted by Kress Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:44 pm EDT

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    I remember around this time last season people were writing about Chipper Jones going for .400. He finished the year with a .364, but of course had an injury ontop of that. I see Mauer batting over .350, I'll say .356!
    As for the rest of his line? 73 18 79 sound good?
  9. Infamous Crib
    9. Posted by Infamous Crib Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:49 pm EDT

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    Hopefully this article does not jinx the great one....
    I want to hear arguments against Mauer not being the best overall player in the league.
    I mean his ridiculous BA as noted, 1.253 OPS, ability to score runs as a catcher, and most importantly, a gold glove at catcher...
    Oh ya, he also is commanding one of the youngest pitching staffs in the league (No stats on this one, but it has to be true)... Liriano is a FAT bust
  10. Infamous Crib
    10. Posted by Infamous Crib Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:52 pm EDT

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    Kress..... You must be taking drugs I have never heard of to think that Mauer will finish with a .356, 73 R, 18 HR, 79 RBI line...
    I feel like
    90 .400 flat 90 are realistic... in like 120 games
  11. r t
    11. Posted by r t Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:59 pm EDT

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    i would estimate mauers ends up b/w .350-.370
  12. Joe Hova
    12. Posted by Joe Hova Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:05 pm EDT

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    Letterman needs to apologize to AROD or be FIRED.---off topic---so sorry
  13. Charles C
    13. Posted by Charles C Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:06 pm EDT

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    are you really still trying to do projections here Andy? no offense but the wieters and hanson contests included some of the most ridiculous posts i have ever seen.
  14. Greg K
    14. Posted by Greg K Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:09 pm EDT

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    I love this guy, I just hope some hair gel doesn't get him a 50 game suspension....
  15. iluvmilwaukee
    15. Posted by iluvmilwaukee Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:10 pm EDT

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    What's this .350 crap? I'm thinking .450. If you look at his batting average per game stats they are slowly going up every week!
  16. Lee Majors
    16. Posted by Lee Majors Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:11 pm EDT

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    That range is way too wide, RT. We need precision here.
  17. Jeremiah B
    17. Posted by Jeremiah B Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:14 pm EDT

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    it all depends on how much he catches, and since the twins want to win more than they want to see mauer hit .400, i would say he catches quite a bit... leaving him .360 tops i would say.
  18. marinerjoey
    18. Posted by marinerjoey Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:14 pm EDT

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    Mauer is awesome, but I don't think he can keep this pace up. So I trade him for Evan Longoria and Chris Ianneta. I think he will still end up with a BA in the .370-.375 range though.
  19. david y
    19. Posted by david y Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:17 pm EDT

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    do mai mai
  20. Tommyeagle
    20. Posted by Tommyeagle Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:18 pm EDT

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    This article druels all over Mauer's batting average but it fails to take into account his incredible .756 slugging percentage. He has 13 homeruns in only 156 AB's...the most HR's he ever hit in an entire season was 13HR's 3 years ago with with over 500 AB's...are you kidding me! This guy is the next Ted Williams...he is only 26 and now here comes the hole shooting match...average and power! He has great mechanics at the plate so don't expect Mauer to shrivel up and disappear...this could be an incredible season for him when you take into account that he is behind the plate on defense and only occassionally at DH.
  21. God
    21. Posted by God Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:18 pm EDT

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    Mauer's going to finish over .410 on the season. He'll also clear 25 HR, 85 RBI and 90 Runs. That's a pretty nice line for my catcher spot.
    Now if only Russell Martin could catch fire so I could trade him for something valuable.
  22. Lee Majors
    22. Posted by Lee Majors Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:19 pm EDT

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    I think he's worth shopping for sure. (Not giving away, but shopping). Tough position, injury risk, unreasonably high level of performance...it's all there.
    And I'm also considering him in Round 1 tonight, so he's a tricky player.
  23. Brian B
    23. Posted by Brian B Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:23 pm EDT

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    373 seems reasonable. I traded Mauer when he was still on DL for Burnett, as I needed pitching and had Inge and Ianetta already. The power surge surprised me (and everyone).
  24. prodigylush
    24. Posted by prodigylush Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:23 pm EDT

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    Fearless Forecast for Joe Mauer:
    .384 average, 27 homeruns, 89 RBI, 92 runs scored
    I guarantee victory!
  25. hey diaz
    25. Posted by hey diaz Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:23 pm EDT

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    I'm betting .399...poor guy.

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