Roto Arcade - Fantasy

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__9/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-88068468-1232652719.jpg?ymv2lrAD8CQ2GRUDThroughout January and February, we're reviewing offseason MLB transactions that have fantasy implications, and we're going team-by-team. This isn't quite like Hot Stove Daily. The focus here is limited. We're only looking at ownable fantasy players who've found new employers.

New York Yankees

New York has basically treated the Yahoo! ultimate free agent tracker like a grocery list. The Yankees print money, and they throw it at brand-name talent. Let's review...

CC Sabathia, signed for seven years, $161 million

Sabathia will be the first American League pitcher taken in your draft, and rightly so. His current Mock Draft Central ADP is 34.8. Over the past two seasons, he's delivered astonishing ratios -- particularly in Milwaukee (1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) -- while pitching 494 innings. Sabathia's K-rate has been on a multi-year upward trend, too. The Yankees aren't likely to push him beyond the 240-inning mark again, not in the first year of a nine-figure deal. For that reason, his '09 fantasy value takes a small hit. And of course you can't expect Sabathia to repeat the Dead Ball Era rates he put up with the Brewers. And yeah, he's a high-mileage 300-pound pitcher.

But there are disclaimers with everyone. CC is still the best fantasy option among AL starters. The run support will be plentiful and Sabathia will be handing leads to Mariano Rivera. It's an outstanding situation.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__9/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-429739985-1232652745.jpg?ymJ3lrADSdYAp8RBMark Teixeira, signed for eight years, $180 million

The switch-hitting Teixeira is the 14th overall pick in an average draft at MDC, and he's typically the fourth first basemen selected (behind Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Howard). Few players are more reliable. He's had at least 30 home runs and 100 RBIs in each of the past five seasons, and he's a career .290/.378/.541 hitter. He's also in his prime. The Yankees 2-3-4 hitters will be Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Teixeira, possibly in that order. The run and RBI totals should be obscene.

If you pass on Teixeira with the turn picks in Round 1 and 2, you're not going to get Lance Berkman (ADP 15.6), Justin Morneau (20.0) or Prince Fielder (24.3) in Round 3. The position might seem deep, but the high-end talent flies off the board very early. Teixeira is a perfectly reasonable pick in the 10-15 range, although hardcore positional scarcity fetishists will disagree.

AJ Burnett, five years, $82.5 million

Most Burnett discussions begin with these words: "When healthy..."

We know, of course, that Burnett can be an outstanding fantasy starter. His K-rate is excellent (9.4 K/9), and he's finished with sub-4.00 ERAs in four of the past five seasons. He still has the mid-90s fastball and the huge, occasionally troublesome curve. Burnett has been pitching in the AL East for the past three seasons, so there's no league adjustment to fear. The worry is health. Burnett has made 30 starts only twice, and he's coming off career highs in innings (221.1) and total pitches (3650). You have to expect that over the course of a five-year deal, there could be a lost season or two.

He's still a risk worth taking in fantasy drafts. Burnett's current ADP is 96.8, so you don't have to reach too early to acquire his services. If you're the sort of fantasy owner who waits until Round 8 or 9 to select your first SP, then this is your guy. 

Nick Swisher, acquired via trade

We'll look at the other side of this deal when we get to the White Sox. For now, we're just considering Swisher. It's possible that we're going to have to discuss him a second time, too, because the Yankees are shopping him. When New York signed Teixeira, there wasn't really a place left for Swisher. Hideki Matsui will DH, and Johnny Damon and Xavier Nady occupy the corner outfield spots.

That's not to say that Swisher can't be moderately useful to someone, somewhere. If he gets at-bats, expect him to be better than he was in 2008. He had miserable luck last season (.251 BABIP) despite posting the best line-drive percentage of his career (20.9). It's unlikely that he'll hit .219 again, although he's still going to remain a liability in batting average. You generally look for a nice OBP from Swisher, modest power, lots of Ks, and 80-plus runs scored...but not if he spends the season as a part-timer.

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OK, you'll notice that we somehow made it through four player blurbs without posing this ridiculous question:

"How will _____ handle the pressure of playing in New York?"

In sports, lots of inane things are routinely presented as legitimate analysis. Nothing annoys me as much as the NYC pressure debate. We're expected to believe that certain elite athletes -- after enduring years of public scrutiny and excelling at every level -- are capable of achieving greatness anywhere on Earth...except in New York, the world's 13th largest city.

That's total nonsense, but you can understand why it persists. It's no doubt a source of great pride for New Yorkers and media members. It's also a spectacular excuse if you're the general manager of a New York team. There are no mistakes; there are only players who can't deal with the spotlight.

You're free to use the comments section to discuss the relative pressure-resistance of various players, of course. On Monday we'll move on to another contender from the AL East.

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Photo via Getty Images

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206 Comments

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  1. Lee Majors
    1. Posted by Lee Majors Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

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    C'mon, cowards. Comment!
  2. sweetchuck
    2. Posted by sweetchuck Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:23 pm EDT

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    enjoyed the assessment...can't for the life of me draft a yankee unless they end up being available later in the draft than anticipated...batting behind jeter and the rod is a dream...cc will be a ok...burnett is not worth the heartache...nuff said
  3. DJ
    3. Posted by DJ Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:44 pm EDT

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    We all know with all the hype surrounding the Yankees and the aforementioned players; there will be a lot of idiots who take Arod, Teixeira and Sabathia in the 1st round.
    Last season I was in a private league where 2 guys were fighting to get the #1 pick t\so they could draft Johan Santana because as they put it, "Dude, he's on a great team, he's a great pitcher - No doubt he's going to win 30 games easy!!"
    Yeah, good call on that one.
    Don't buy into the hype.
  4. sweetchuck
    4. Posted by sweetchuck Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:23 pm EDT

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    as an a's fan, swisher will have no fantasy relevance whatsoever except in a league deeper than 12 teams
  5. Brian P
    5. Posted by Brian P Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:14 pm EDT

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    I'm commenting, I'm commenting! Honestly, I would flip Tex and Cabrera in your rankings. I don't know why exactly, but I don't think '09 will be a great year for Cabrera. And honestly, I want to stay away from Sabathia. Maybe it's my paranoia, but his IP and other factors are more than I want to deal with out of a second-rounder. I think somone will take him in most of my leagues by the end of the second round.
  6. Olivier L
    6. Posted by Olivier L Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

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    Teixeira to be this years Pujols
  7. b.p.
    7. Posted by b.p. Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:02 pm EDT

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    I know I shouldn't let personal feelings affect my fantasy sports decisions, but I HATE having Yankees on my team, and have managed to do well in the past while still mostly avoiding them, though I make exceptions for Joba Chamberlain, and Robinson Cano when he's a free agent. I've always liked CC, so I would probably bite the Yankee bullet on him if the opportunity were there, but I'm sure he's generating all kinds of enthusiasm, so he'll go well before I'm prepared to take him; crisis averted.
  8. alfonsoh
    8. Posted by alfonsoh Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:50 pm EDT

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    With all those innings under his already over-stressed belt, it's just a matter of time before Sabathia gets hurt. And with Burnett's history that's a pretty bad worst case injury scenario that could happen.
    And before anybody brings up a salary cap, consider this: The Yankees are going to generate revenue anyway and if they can't spend it on players they might get a clue and spend on operations. Imagine a Yankee farm and scouting system funded by all these free agent dollars!
  9. Milad
    9. Posted by Milad Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:20 pm EDT

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    Burnett was at his best in his last season with the Marlins. I dont think he'll be that much of a beast ever again, really, since injuries have to affect you at some point.
  10. scooter281
    10. Posted by scooter281 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:08 pm EDT

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    Teixeira will be a good buy-low candidate in May. He typically struggles early before heating up after the break.
    As a fan of anyone playing against the Yankees, I'll be interested to see if they can somehow fail to make the playoffs again despite a payroll that rivals the GDP of some countries.
  11. Ice Dawg
    11. Posted by Ice Dawg Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:12 pm EDT

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    A question to ponder: would another good AL team not from New York or Boston (ie: Rays or Angels) be allowed to buy the same three players the Yankees did or would the Commish evoke the "not in the best interest of the game" clause? Before you answer too quickly, remember that it's been done in the past.
  12. Goat Slywinkle
    12. Posted by Goat Slywinkle Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

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    Teixeira: He deserves to be in the top two rounds. He hasn't been converting double to homers as he hits his power prime. If anything it's been down since he left Texas. Ok, not surprising. 33 HR each of the last three years. But yeah, 2nd round easy.
    Sabathia: I would let someone else take the chance on him. There's going to be at least one Yankees fan in the draft who will reach for him. It's the same guy that took Randy Johnson in the first round a few years ago :).
    Burnett: I love pitchers who strike out a lot and don't walk many. His ADP seems right to me. If he was my first pitcher off the board I'd be drafting depth later though.
    Swisher: ha ha ha
  13. DJ
    13. Posted by DJ Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:44 pm EDT

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    B.P - Fantasy Sports IS all personal feelings. Don't feel bad if you hate having a Yankee on your team.
    I NEVER play with an Oakland Raider on any of my football teams. If I have a player that gets traded to the Raiders, I give 24 hours to try and trade, if i can't I cut him outright.
    I hate the Raiders. I hate them with a passion.
    Then again, it's not like there are any Raiders who are worth having on a fantasy team.
  14. Wallace
    14. Posted by Wallace Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:29 pm EDT

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    The Yanks just got rid of Pavano, and then they snag Burnett. Lessons never learned. And in response to a previous comment, I like Cabrera where he is. He'll be 26 and in his second season in Detroit. He'll get lots of opportunities and I think is .292 BA will climb back into the .300's.
  15. frodobus
    15. Posted by frodobus Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:03 pm EDT

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    As always the best talent wins at the draft position. That said I rarely draft starters early. Closers pay off much better. There is always 2 or 3 new pitchers that come up and have a great rookie year. That said...I hate wasting early picks on a once a week player. Tex is strong but starts late, Jeter is average at best and Rod is usually going to do well and is worth the pick.
  16. jaynix
    16. Posted by jaynix Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:51 pm EDT

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    if u have a top 2 pick and u dont spend it on arod you have to be retarded. the man is a lock for 30/100. plus, hes gonna get his steals, runs, abd bat at least .290. further, its an odd number year and he excels in odd numbers years. finally, big tex will bat behind him which is a huge upgrade from the batting average deprived jason giambi.
  17. Mike
    17. Posted by Mike Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:29 pm EDT

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    Hey just remember, even though Tex is a great player, he'll always start off slow. So I don't want to hear anything about pressure during the first 2 months.
  18. wagner
    18. Posted by wagner Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:38 pm EDT

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    big tex is a first round pick. that's all there is to it.
  19. bigtime
    19. Posted by bigtime Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:50 pm EDT

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    never been a big yankee fan, but cant ignore the possibilities with so many studs on one team. if i get a chance to draft any of them, im takin! might even try and get burnett in the late rounds. not too worried bout them strugglin like last yr cause now they have more hitting and pitching.
  20. A Gels
    20. Posted by A Gels Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:57 pm EDT

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    21st? GO SOX
  21. turbo
    21. Posted by turbo Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:16 pm EDT

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    I was also interested in ICE DOG's post. I also love to hear that I am not the only one who hates the Raiders. I appreciate that DJ hates them enough to sneak it into a baseball post.
    I'm not sure that I'm sold on the concept that releivers are more productive than starters in fantasy leagues. That being said, I will likely not take Tex in either of my first 2 picks nor will I draft my first pitcher until the 3rd round. Should CC be available,it may be him but that also depends on the availability of a few other starters (ie Lincecum)
  22. Baddass
    22. Posted by Baddass Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:01 pm EDT

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    Sure Yankees A great team.But i still think they need pitching AJ crap ,CC awesome they need just one more Starter Like PEEVY also time to uload the riv as closer.Do i hear the word HOFFMAN,Get Peevy and the hoff and no way anyone with touch that team.So much 4 a salary cap what a joke that is!!!!
  23. turbo
    23. Posted by turbo Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:16 pm EDT

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    I was also interested in ICE DOG's post. I also love to hear that I am not the only one who hates the Raiders. I appreciate that DJ hates them enough to sneak it into a baseball post.
    I'm not sure that I'm sold on the concept that releivers are more productive than starters in fantasy leagues. That being said, I will likely not take Tex in either of my first 2 picks nor will I draft my first pitcher until the 3rd round. Should CC be available,it may be him but that also depends on the availability of a few other starters (ie Lincecum)
  24. turbo
    24. Posted by turbo Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:16 pm EDT

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    I shouldn't take a "A list" win the show, let alone just make the playoffs. It is a joke.
  25. A Gels
    25. Posted by A Gels Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:57 pm EDT

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    Well I am a Red Sox fan so I am hoping that our bullpen will be amazing(as it looks like it will be) and that helps win some of the close ones with the Yankees and Rays.

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Roto Arcade is a fantasy sports blog edited by Andy Behrens. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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