November 03, 2010
The Tennessee Titans have acquired Randy Moss(notes) off waivers from Minnesota, and the initial reports suggest he'll "happily" report to the team. Nashville caterers, step up your game or there will be consequences.
This is an easy move to spin for fantasy purposes, because there's one clear winner: Chris Johnson. The rich get much richer. Moss still draws attention from multiple defenders on nearly every snap — we can argue about whether it's necessary at this stage, but it definitely happens. One extra DB assigned to Randy is one less player focused on Johnson.
Tennessee currently ranks 30th in the NFL in pass attempts per game (26.1), but the team is tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (14). In a way, the 2010 version of Moss is a perfect fit: He's averaging fewer than six targets per week, yet he's managed to haul in five TD passes. You can abandon hope that the 33-year-old wideout will suddenly have more opportunities to make plays — that's not really consistent with his new team's approach. Vince Young(notes) hasn't thrown more than 28 passes in any game this season, and Kerry Collins(notes) maxed out at 31 in Week 7.
Moss will have two weeks to get familiar with the offense, as Tennessee is on a bye at the moment. He should immediately get all the work he can handle, because second-year receiver Kenny Britt(notes) suffered an ugly hamstring injury last Sunday in the loss to San Diego. Britt presently leads his team in receptions (23), yardage (434), and receiving touchdowns (7), so his loss was a huge concern. Today, however, he's an afterthought. Moss is the story.
Tennessee's rest-of-season schedule is awfully friendly in fantasy terms: at MIA, vs. WAS, at HOU, vs. JAC, vs. IND, vs. HOU, at KC, at IND. The Titans have four upcoming match-ups with pass defenses that rank in the bottom-five in the NFL (Weeks 11-13, 15). Nate Washington(notes) may benefit from Moss' presence, at least temporarily, but Tennessee's limited air attack can only support so many ownable receivers.
The biggest variable with Moss, of course, is something that we can't possibly forecast. He'll need to accept his role in a run-first offense, on a team that hasn't produced a 1,000-yard receiver (or even an 800-yard receiver) since 2004. There's no obvious reason to expect Moss' fantasy value to skyrocket, not unless you think defenses will treat him exactly as they've treated Britt to this point. But if Moss remains relatively engaged and committed — and the food is to his liking — then this is an obvious win for the Titans.
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