Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:11 pm EST
Every Friday during the NFL season, we'll review the Yahoo! weekly position ranks. If an expert breaks from the herd on a particular player, they'll be asked to show their work. You're encouraged to discuss the wisdom or lunacy of these opinions in comments.
Bernard Berrian (No. 28 in Behrens' ranks, No. 16 in the Yahoo! composite)
In four excellent match-ups (at NO, DET, at CHI, HOU), Berrian has delivered four excellent fantasy performances. No complaints here. But this week, he faces the Packers defense. They've allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and they're tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (13). Green Bay has also allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (183.9), and the their defense holds opposing quarterbacks to the NFL's lowest completion percentage (51.3). And they're getting healthier.
I'm just not willing to trust Gus Frerotte and his receivers this week. The Packers have been vulnerable to the run, not the pass. They allow 146.4 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. I'm expecting the usual big day from Adrian Peterson, but not much through the air. Berrian and Frerotte had great fantasy weeks when we expected them to, in solid match-ups. In Week 10, the expectations change.
Bernard Berrian revisited (No. 8 in Pianowski's ranks, No. 16 composite)
Green Bay's secondary has some pretty stats to point to, but I'm not as impressed when I consider some of the QBs who have padded the numbers (Tarvaris Jackson, Jon Kitna, Charlie Frye, Kerry Collins). I'll respect the Pack here, but their corners won't keep me away from a player on top of his game. Berrian has scored in four straight starts, he's getting 20.7 yards per reception, and he's averaging 97 yards per week since Gus Frerotte took over. Let's not overthink the equation – Berrian has a good thing going, keep running with it.
Vincent Jackson (No. 16 in Funston's ranks, No. 22 composite)
I used the “tall, physical receivers dominate Kansas City” theory last week in pimping Antonio Bryant, and he delivered in spades (eight catches, 115 yards, TD). This week, the 6-foot-5 Jackson gets his shot at the Chiefs secondary. He comes into the game having scored in three consecutive games. With LaDainian Tomlinson likely to keep the Chargers in business in the red zone, count on Jackson getting a few end zone looks. Even if he doesn’t find pay dirt, he still has a great opportunity to become the seventh wideout to post at least 96 receiving yards against Kansas City.
Sage Rosenfels (No. 8 in Evans' ranks, No. 14 composite)
Rosenfels' highlight reel contributions have primarily involved spinning aerial acrobatics and come-from-behind strips. Sure his aggressive tendencies make him a magnet for mistakes, but the career backup is a competent, capable quarterback who should thrive against Baltimore. The Ravens, who will again be without hard-hitting corner Chris McAlister, have recently been exploitable through the air. Over the past five weeks, they've yielded 235.2 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game to QBs, equal to the 10th-most fantasy points allowed. Because Baltimore is inflexible up front (2.5 YPC to RBs in last five), look for Rosenfels to assault John Harbaugh's bunch vertically. With an arsenal comprised of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and the ultra-versatile Steve Slaton, he should post reliable numbers in front of the Houston faithful.
Fearless Forecast: 259 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions.
Muhsin Muhammad (No. 19 in Funston's ranks, No. 29 composite)
“Moose” could walk onto the Oakland Coliseum field in just his jockstrap, and I still don’t think the Raiders defense would pay that much attention. Being one of the most run-challenged teams in the league, you can bet Oakland will come in with a game plan that will give added attention to stopping Carolina’s run-heavy attack -- the Panthers are seventh in the league in rushing attempts. Then there’s Steve Smith to think about, and you can bank on elite corner Nnamdi Asomugha drawing the assignment of being Smith’s shadow all day long. I just don’t see anyway around Oakland having to leave Muhammad in single coverage against DeAngelo Hall replacement Chris Johnson, a journeyman return man with little experience at corner. Muhammad has averaged eight targets per game, but he should be in Jake Delhomme’s crosshairs double-digit times on Sunday. Look for 90-plus yards from the veteran.
Darren Sproles (No. 27 in Behrens' ranks, No. 38 composite)
This rank is all about the opponent: Kansas City. The Chiefs have the league's worst run defense, and no other team is even close. It's not just workhorse backs that are hurting them, either. They've allowed 50 or more rushing yards to 13 different RBs. Jerious Norwood needed only 12 touches to gain 105 combined yards; Leon Washington needed just six to get 101 yards and two scores. It wouldn't be a surprise if Sproles found the end zone here. San Diego is coming off a bye, they're at home, and every game is basically a must-win. There's a decent chance that Sproles will get unusually heavy fourth quarter work against a miserable D.
Ray Rice (No. 23 in Pianowski's ranks, No. 17 composite)
Hey, I'm a Rice fan, like the rest of the Fantasy Staff. And nothing would make me happier than to jump in with both feet and proclaim him to be an every-week starter, no questions asked. But the Baltimore coaching staff has me a little leery – it's thrown us a series of curveballs in the backfield with respect to playing time, game planning and injury disclosures. Rice's big game at Cleveland came out of nowhere (fueled by runs from the shotgun, something they're unlikely to keep as a base offense). Le'Ron McClain also had a big game against the Browns earlier in the year, with no warning. Willis McGahee's become impossible to project, other than when he plays in Miami.
Keep in mind that the undersized Rice might not see the rock at the goal line (McClain is a monster there), and he's still looking for his first pro touchdown. I still like the rookie as a lukewarm No. 2 back or a buzz-worthy flex play in most formats this week, but give your other options a long look before you pull the trigger.
Leon Washington (No. 24 in Evans' ranks, No. 32 composite)
The Scrappy-Doo of the Jets backfield, Washington is ready to unleash his puppy power on St. Louis. A change-of-pace mighty mite who's extremely difficult to contain in the open-field, the little-used back (7.3 touches per game) has been Flex useful against flimsy defenses this season (Oakland in Week 7, Kansas City in Week 8). Little Leon should post profitable numbers against a Rams defense that has surrendered 5.3 yards per carry, 173.5 total yards per game and six scores to backs over the past four weeks, equal to the fifth-most fantasy points allowed. Expect Eric Mangini to call a handful of Washington swing passes to maximize the rusher's talents. Remember, the Rams were troubled by the similarly skilled Kevin Faulk in Week 8 (107 total yards). Gut feeling: he scores his fourth TD in as many games.
Fearless Forecast: 6 carries, 28 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 33 receiving yards, 1 touchdown.
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Photos via US Presswire
Roto Arcade is a fantasy sports blog edited by Andy Behrens. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.
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Those both are important to me personally because I will be starting three of these four this week: Gore, TJ, Ronnie Brown, and MJD. The other three of you would start Gore, MJD, and Brown, but then there is Evans, with TJ ranked WAY higher than the rest of you, and Gore ranked way worse than the rest of you. I'd love to hear an explanation...
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