Roto Arcade - Fantasy

Every Friday during the NFL season, we'll review the Yahoo! weekly position ranks. If an expert breaks from the herd on a particular player, they'll be asked to show their work. You're encouraged to discuss the wisdom or lunacy of these opinions in comments.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__7/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-537430596-1226008711.jpg?ymZrVrADbeh11QbGBernard Berrian (No. 28 in Behrens' ranks, No. 16 in the Yahoo! composite)

In four excellent match-ups (at NO, DET, at CHI, HOU), Berrian has delivered four excellent fantasy performances. No complaints here. But this week, he faces the Packers defense. They've allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and they're tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (13). Green Bay has also allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (183.9), and the their defense holds opposing quarterbacks to the NFL's lowest completion percentage (51.3). And they're getting healthier.

I'm just not willing to trust Gus Frerotte and his receivers this week. The Packers have been vulnerable to the run, not the pass. They allow 146.4 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. I'm expecting the usual big day from Adrian Peterson, but not much through the air. Berrian and Frerotte had great fantasy weeks when we expected them to, in solid match-ups. In Week 10, the expectations change.

Bernard Berrian revisited (No. 8 in Pianowski's ranks, No. 16 composite)

Green Bay's secondary has some pretty stats to point to, but I'm not as impressed when I consider some of the QBs who have padded the numbers (Tarvaris Jackson, Jon Kitna, Charlie Frye, Kerry Collins). I'll respect the Pack here, but their corners won't keep me away from a player on top of his game. Berrian has scored in four straight starts, he's getting 20.7 yards per reception, and he's averaging 97 yards per week since Gus Frerotte took over. Let's not overthink the equation – Berrian has a good thing going, keep running with it.

Vincent Jackson (No. 16 in Funston's ranks, No. 22 composite)

I used the “tall, physical receivers dominate Kansas City” theory last week in pimping Antonio Bryant, and he delivered in spades (eight catches, 115 yards, TD). This week, the 6-foot-5 Jackson gets his shot at the Chiefs secondary. He comes into the game having scored in three consecutive games. With LaDainian Tomlinson likely to keep the Chargers in business in the red zone, count on Jackson getting a few end zone looks. Even if he doesn’t find pay dirt, he still has a great opportunity to become the seventh wideout to post at least 96 receiving yards against Kansas City.

Sage Rosenfels (No. 8 in Evans' ranks, No. 14 composite)

Rosenfels' highlight reel contributions have primarily involved spinning aerial acrobatics and come-from-behind strips. Sure his aggressive tendencies make him a magnet for mistakes, but the career backup is a competent, capable quarterback who should thrive against Baltimore. The Ravens, who will again be without hard-hitting corner Chris McAlister, have recently been exploitable through the air. Over the past five weeks, they've yielded 235.2 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game to QBs, equal to the 10th-most fantasy points allowed. Because Baltimore is inflexible up front (2.5 YPC to RBs in last five), look for Rosenfels to assault John Harbaugh's bunch vertically. With an arsenal comprised of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and the ultra-versatile Steve Slaton, he should post reliable numbers in front of the Houston faithful.

Fearless Forecast: 259 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__7/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-522447336-1226009335.jpg?ymarVrADNNqAKs4EMuhsin Muhammad (No. 19 in Funston's ranks, No. 29 composite)

“Moose” could walk onto the Oakland Coliseum field in just his jockstrap, and I still don’t think the Raiders defense would pay that much attention. Being one of the most run-challenged teams in the league, you can bet Oakland will come in with a game plan that will give added attention to stopping Carolina’s run-heavy attack -- the Panthers are seventh in the league in rushing attempts. Then there’s Steve Smith to think about, and you can bank on elite corner Nnamdi Asomugha drawing the assignment of being Smith’s shadow all day long. I just don’t see anyway around Oakland having to leave Muhammad in single coverage against DeAngelo Hall replacement Chris Johnson, a journeyman return man with little experience at corner. Muhammad has averaged eight targets per game, but he should be in Jake Delhomme’s crosshairs double-digit times on Sunday. Look for 90-plus yards from the veteran.

Darren Sproles (No. 27 in Behrens' ranks, No. 38 composite)

This rank is all about the opponent: Kansas City. The Chiefs have the league's worst run defense, and no other team is even close. It's not just workhorse backs that are hurting them, either. They've allowed 50 or more rushing yards to 13 different RBs. Jerious Norwood needed only 12 touches to gain 105 combined yards; Leon Washington needed just six to get 101 yards and two scores. It wouldn't be a surprise if Sproles found the end zone here. San Diego is coming off a bye, they're at home, and every game is basically a must-win. There's a decent chance that Sproles will get unusually heavy fourth quarter work against a miserable D. 

Ray Rice (No. 23 in Pianowski's ranks, No. 17 composite)

Hey, I'm a Rice fan, like the rest of the Fantasy Staff. And nothing would make me happier than to jump in with both feet and proclaim him to be an every-week starter, no questions asked. But the Baltimore coaching staff has me a little leery – it's thrown us a series of curveballs in the backfield with respect to playing time, game planning and injury disclosures. Rice's big game at Cleveland came out of nowhere (fueled by runs from the shotgun, something they're unlikely to keep as a base offense). Le'Ron McClain also had a big game against the Browns earlier in the year, with no warning. Willis McGahee's become impossible to project, other than when he plays in Miami.

Keep in mind that the undersized Rice might not see the rock at the goal line (McClain is a monster there), and he's still looking for his first pro touchdown. I still like the rookie as a lukewarm No. 2 back or a buzz-worthy flex play in most formats this week, but give your other options a long look before you pull the trigger.

Leon Washington (No. 24 in Evans' ranks, No. 32 composite) 

The Scrappy-Doo of the Jets backfield, Washington is ready to unleash his puppy power on St. Louis. A change-of-pace mighty mite who's extremely difficult to contain in the open-field, the little-used back (7.3 touches per game) has been Flex useful against flimsy defenses this season (Oakland in Week 7, Kansas City in Week 8). Little Leon should post profitable numbers against a Rams defense that has surrendered 5.3 yards per carry, 173.5 total yards per game and six scores to backs over the past four weeks, equal to the fifth-most fantasy points allowed. Expect Eric Mangini to call a handful of Washington swing passes to maximize the rusher's talents. Remember, the Rams were troubled by the similarly skilled Kevin Faulk in Week 8 (107 total yards). Gut feeling: he scores his fourth TD in as many games.

Fearless Forecast: 6 carries, 28 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 33 receiving yards, 1 touchdown.

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Photos via US Presswire

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142 Comments

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  1. Lee Majors
    1. Posted by Lee Majors Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

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    Thursday football this week, everyone. Plan accordingly. We've ranked early, just for you.
  2. Tyler O
    2. Posted by Tyler O Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:46 pm EDT

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    yay
  3. pianow
    3. Posted by pianow Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    Andy had the first word on Berrian, I had the last word. The duel will continue here.
  4. Chadam
    4. Posted by Chadam Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:21 pm EDT

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    Pianow, can you give us your "fearless forecast" for Berrian? Are you thinking a 6/100/1 game from him that continues his four-week pace, or are you thinking more than that?
  5. Ryan S
    5. Posted by Ryan S Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    Quick starters question. do I go with Marshawn Lynch for my 2nd RB or Steve Slaton? Also I have Pennington and Delhomme at QB and Matt Ryan is available do I go pick him up and which should I start this week?
  6. Hogger
    6. Posted by Hogger Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:47 pm EDT

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    should i start desean jackson or vincent jackson
  7. Zaguru09
    7. Posted by Zaguru09 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:20 pm EDT

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    how about torain tonight?
  8. BLAHZAY
    8. Posted by BLAHZAY Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:31 pm EDT

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    I will never trust Gus.... NEVER!! give me Vinny T
  9. bg
    9. Posted by bg Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:27 pm EDT

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    WIth another 100-yd game, could Jamaal Charles solidify a starting spot, with Herm Edwards perhaps challenging LJ to "win the job back" from Charles in practice? I don't think Johnson has it in him to win the job back from Charles if they do end up handing it to him.
  10. BLAHZAY
    10. Posted by BLAHZAY Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:31 pm EDT

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    Lee Majors: dude you have a serious fantasy addiction problem. your own way too many teams for 08. find a hobby
  11. Walter
    11. Posted by Walter Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:50 pm EDT

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    Should i start berrian or edwards?
  12. flatstick96
    12. Posted by flatstick96 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    The two that stood out to me, that I'm really surprised weren't addressed in the article, are Brad's ranks for both Frank Gore and Thomas Jones.
    Those both are important to me personally because I will be starting three of these four this week: Gore, TJ, Ronnie Brown, and MJD. The other three of you would start Gore, MJD, and Brown, but then there is Evans, with TJ ranked WAY higher than the rest of you, and Gore ranked way worse than the rest of you. I'd love to hear an explanation...
  13. Nate
    13. Posted by Nate Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:40 pm EDT

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    Somebody talk me in off the ledge, PLEASE!! I've managed to assemble the dream team of overrated/underperforming RBs. S-Jax, Addai, and Grant. Plus, I have MJD and Ray Rice, so at least one is guaranteed to go off on my bench each week. I'm scrambling to make a trade, but I might as well be trying to drum up interest in a mortgage-backed hedge fund.
  14. bware
    14. Posted by bware Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

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    in a 4 wr league I have boldin, andre johnson, steve smith,berrin, higgins, and roddy white what 4 should I start
  15. TheOtherBootyBrother
    15. Posted by TheOtherBootyBrother Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:39 pm EDT

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    Should've packaged Jax and Rice earlier this week coming off of Rice's big game. Now that he's hurt you have to run Grant and MJD and Addai out there, close your eyes and pray.
  16. TheOtherBootyBrother
    16. Posted by TheOtherBootyBrother Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:39 pm EDT

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    And every now and then i see a message like bware's and i want to know what league he's in so that i can get in it next year. =|
  17. bg
    17. Posted by bg Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:27 pm EDT

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    why would you even mention higgins? i think your answer is pretty obvious, bware. boldin, johnson, smith, white. berrian's been playing well, but the other four are all top ten wideouts.
  18. Jake O
    18. Posted by Jake O Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:37 pm EDT

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    nobody go with torrain, jay cutler will throw the ball 40-50 times 2night. 2 nate, dont start addai, im not. start drew and either jackson or rice. depends.
  19. theedg3
    19. Posted by theedg3 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:04 pm EDT

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    Boston 3 Party. I'd start Berrian over Edwards. I am starting Edwards and Berrian this week expect good things from both. I don't mind giving second opinions to people to help them seems tough to get responses though I feel ya bro.
  20. Scott M
    20. Posted by Scott M Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:51 pm EDT

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    scott, where's the shuffle up love that you promised?!?!
  21. JD~34
    21. Posted by JD~34 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:51 pm EDT

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    Do I go with Garrard or Cutler?
  22. Aaron R
    22. Posted by Aaron R Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:43 pm EDT

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    Start Edwards...anyone vs Broncos defense is a solid starter.

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Roto Arcade is a fantasy sports blog edited by Andy Behrens. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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