Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:12 pm EDT
Dwayne Bowe's fantasy value has collapsed in recent days, and trading has been heavy. The picture above was actually taken while Bowe was trying to deal himself for the Carolina defense and Josh Reed -- and he was rejected, without a counter offer.
Consider these facts:
• John Hansen just downgraded Bowe in the Stock Watch;
• Bowe is currently off Brandon Funston's Big Board, while the concussed Laveranues Coles is on it;
• Scott Pianowski ranks Bowe as the No. 24 fantasy wide receiver in this week's Shuffle Up and Deal, behind two Jets, two Packers, two Steelers, two Cardinals, two Johnsons, two Mosses, NFL drops-leader Braylon Edwards, and ten others;
• Bowe is owned in just 89 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
So fantasy owners are dropping him, and you can't find an expert willing to endorse him. In one-for-one trades in Yahoo! PLUS leagues today, Bowe has been dealt straight-up for the following players: Edwards, Darren Sproles, Gus Frerotte, Kerry Collins, and Chad Pennington.
Just to be clear, that's every one-for-one deal currently listed on the Trade Log. We've left nothing out.
We obviously don't know the specific circumstances involved in any of those deals -- there's a good chance that one of them involved an LT owner, and a few others took place in leagues that start two QBs -- but it seems clear enough that Dwayne Bowe has been discounted for immediate sale. He's on the bargain rack near the register, with a "Nice Price" sticker attached.
The mass sell-off of Bowe clearly has a lot to do with Kansas City's unfortunate quarterback situation. Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard both suffered season-ending injuries in Week 7, so Tyler Thigpen will start for the Chiefs in Week 8. And he, of course, isn't very good. Thigpen's completion percentage is 42.2, and he's thrown just two TDs and four interceptions in 90 pass attempts. You're not adding him, except in astonishingly deep leagues.
But should he really lower Bowe's value to Collins-ish levels?
No, I don't think he should.
Thigpen has attempted 30 or more passes in two games so far this season (Week 2 vs. OAK, Week 3 at ATL); Bowe finished with six catches and 90 receiving yards in the first, and four catches for 43 yards and a TD in the second. Bowe is third in the NFL in targets per game (10.7), and he's trying hard to put a positive spin on the Thigpen situation:
“He brings a lot of energy,” Bowe said. “He’s always ready to get the ball out of his hands. He’s not willing to take a sack, and he’s likely to just take off.
“That mobility is a big plus for us.”
And hey, if Thigpen doesn't cut it, there's always Quinn Gray.
As we discussed in last week's Dissenting Opinions, it's just tough to bench a massively talented receiver who's getting 11 targets per game, no matter who's targeting him. In last week's blowout loss, Bowe had seven catches for 86 yards. Not exceptional, but certainly useful.
In Weeks 14-16, when your league championship will be decided, the Chiefs face Denver, San Diego, and Miami. Those teams are currently 28th, 32nd, and 27th in pass defense, and each allows over 235 passing yards per game. No NFL teams allows more fantasy points to receivers than the Dolphins. So no matter where we experts rank Dwayne Bowe today, he's going to be a safe start in the playoffs, assuming he remains healthy.
And right now, you can acquire him for almost nothing. At the current price, Bowe is all reward and very little risk.
---
Photo via Getty Images
Roto Arcade is a fantasy sports blog edited by Andy Behrens. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.
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