Roto Arcade - Fantasy

Thu Nov 12, 2009 6:29 pm EST

Court Report: Scott-free

Another Thursday rundown, featuring news of the day and recapping the most pertinitent information to arise from a full slate of Wednesday games.

• The struggling Hornets have parted ways with Byron Scott. The team has been average on offense and surprisingly bad on defense. While some have attributed the slow start to Scott's no longer being able to motivate the team, David West(notes) told reporters today that there were "philosophical differences" between Scott and some of the players. Current GM and former assistant Jeff Bower will take over as the team's head coach, and he's largely responsible for assembling the current roster. There's not a depth of talent to be mined here, but fantasy owners can at least hope that the switch allows Chris Paul(notes), West, and Emeka Okafor(notes) to maximize their talents. A few key quotes from the press conference:

Bower: Bower said rather than Scott's up-tempo approach on offense, he would prefer to see "steady pace with flow to the game," a better transition from offense to defense.

Bower: "What I'm not going to do is turn away from things that have been successful." 

West: "I think we got to the point to where things we were doing just weren't effective."

• There are only two games on tap for Thursday, and the only notable status updates involve the Lakers' frontcourt. Although he's probably not out until Christmas, Pau Gasol's(notes) timetable remains indefinite. Andrew Bynum(notes) is expected to be back in the lineup for their matchup with the Suns.

• If you thought it couldn't get any worse in Oakland, then click here.

• What to do with Elton Brand(notes)... In a nutshell, the Princeton offense works best when their is only one post player on the floor, and the 76ers currently start two (Brand and Samuel Dalembert(notes)). The Princeton offense necessitates that you have a three-point shooter (or three) on the floor to spread things out for cutting players and the single post option - Jason Kapono(notes) is the sole long-range sniper on the team, and he runs with the second unit. When Marresse Speights is on the floor, it's often in a small lineup where he is the single "big" and Kapono is also involved. To me, it's a no-brainer that the starters are struggling, particulary relative to the team's second unit. What is Eddie Jordan's take?

"When you deal with the starting lineup, that can be a sensitive issue among the players. I don't want to touch a nerve right there right now. Look, are there reasons or are there some reasons for me to warrant to change the starting lineup? Yeah, because our second group has been playing very well. I like the way Marreese has been playing, I like the way Jason Smith(notes) has been playing ... but does that warrant me to change the starting lineup? No, not right now."

Okay, Eddie. More food for thought: take a look at the top two units here, note the singular difference in personnel, and then the marked difference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While it's true that we're not dealing with large sample sizes, I'm not sure how he can say that a change in the starting lineup isn't already warranted... Brand will continue to post poor numbers for at least as long as there is no shake-up in the rotation. If Jordan makes the obvious switch, then Brand has significantly more hope for a turnaround, and that's magnified if Brand is occasionally allowed to be the single "big" in the lineup, as it's almost exclusively been Speights in that role to this point.

Al Jefferson(notes) will miss the Timberwolves' next two games because of an illness in his family. Some combination of Ryan Hollins(notes), Oleksiy Pecherov(notes), and Nathan Jawai(notes) will absorb the surplus minutes against the Mavs (Friday) and Grizzlies (Saturday).

• The Knicks' backcourt is in a state of flux. Chris Duhon(notes) can't buy a bucket (25% FG, 22% 3PT) and his ability to positively (or noticeably) affect a game is in serious question. Toney Douglas(notes) has averaged 20 points and three treys over the past three games, including a start and 36 minutes on Wednesday, but the fact that he's also totaled three assists and six turnovers in those games doesn't bode well for his leading the offense. Larry Hughes(notes) is still Larry Hughes, but he at least impacts a game and has logged a 32:14 assist-to-turnover ratio to date. Nate Robinson(notes) could return Friday, but next week is a safer bet, and he's the likeliest candidate to relieve Duhon of his point guard duties, assuming he can't snap out of his current funk. The Knicks play just twice over the next eight days, although they are both favorable matchups (GSW, @IND).  

Notes from Wednesday's games: 

• It was the first real test for Josh Howard's(notes) ankle - the second of back-to-back games - and he didn't exactly pass with flying colors. He was limping on the court after 19 minutes (and 2-of-11 shooting), was subsequently pulled, and did not return. Rick Carlisle had the following comment:

"We'll evaluate it and treat it accordingly. He's had some soreness. It's no secret. There's going to be times when there's soreness, and we have to get him out of the game."

Howard also added that his ankle had swelled and that "cutting and stuff was killing me." While it's not known exactly how far Howard is from 100 percent, fantasy owners should clealry expect a bumpy ride for at least the next few weeks and be aware of his status on a game-by-game basis. The Mavericks play three more sets of back-to-backs before December 1.

• What Erick Dampier(notes) giveth, Erick Dampier taketh away. He recorded just one point, four boards, and no blocks against the Spurs after averaging 9.8 points, 12 boards, and 2.8 blocks in his previous six games. 

Richard Jefferson(notes) has picked up the slack in the absence of Tim Duncan(notes) and Tony Parker(notes), averaging 26.5 points, 1.5 threes, 7.5 boards, 5.5 assists, and 1.5 steals over two games. His ceiling is certainly limited when this team has it's full complement of players, but that's not something to be expected all the time. RJ's fantasy owners should just take the numbers while they are there - at least one of the Spurs' two missing stars will be back for their next game (Saturday, OKC).

DeJuan Blair(notes) on the other hand failed to capitalize on the surplus opportunity, logging nine fouls in 39 total minutes between the past two games (combined 9 points, 13 boards, 1 block).

T.J. Ford(notes) left Wednesday's game with back spasms, and it's currently unknown if he'll miss any time moving forward. Earl Watson(notes) filled in admirably against the Warriors (35 minutes, 16 points, 3 treys, 6 boards, 3 assists, 3 steals). He technically makes sense as a speculative add in deeper leagues, but the Pacers play just once over the next five days and the matchup is not appealing (BOS).

• Give some of the credit to the matchups, but in 61 minutes over two games, Anthony Randolph(notes) has totaled 40 points on 47-percent shooting, 20 boards, six steals, and five blocks. With Andris Biedrins(notes) out at least another 10 days or so, AR's fantasy owners seem to have at least something of a temporary reprieve from the madness.

Anthony Morrow(notes) replaced Stephen Curry(notes) in the starting lineup on Wednesday and that's likely to stick, at least while Biedrins is sidelined and if Morrow can do a bit better than 2-of-7 shooting. (I'll spare you the "analysis", but there's more Nellie/Stephen Jackson(notes) drama to take in if you follow that link, as well).

John Salmons'(notes) owners have to be completely frazzled at this point, as his 1-for-11 shooting on Wednesday lowered his season mark to 31 percent. The career 36-percent shooter from long range also has made just 26 percent of his attempts thus far on the season. The shots are bound to start falling at some point and the rest of his line looks really good (4.1 boards, 2.8 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.8 blocks), so my advice would be to reject any offers to buy low. And if you don't have him rostered, you should attempt to buy low.

Taj Gibson(notes): 28 points, 11 boards, five steals, and three blocks in 62 minutes over the past two games. This is the last time I'll bring it up, but yes, he's worth a roster add for the next month or so.

Jose Calderon(notes) has made 13-of-17 shots over the past two games, raising his shooting percentage to an even 50 percent on the season. Please direct any and all complaints towards his counting stats (0.8 threes, 6.4 assists, 0.8 steals).

• The Celtics are a tough matchup for anyone, so that makes Deron Williams'(notes) line (13 points, 7 boards, 4 assists) that much more passable when you consider that he played 33 minutes with calf and back issues. He's currently considered probable for Friday's tilt at Philly.

• Wednesday's loss to the Celtics dropped the Jazz to 3-5 on the season, and Jerry Sloan could be contemplating a lineup change. Although conventional wisdom suggests that Paul Millsap(notes) would be joining the starters in some capacity, Sloan's comments were that "We'll see what happens" and "I don't know who it will be."

Raja Bell(notes) missed Wednesday's debacle against the Pistons, but a calf injury was the culprit and not his wrist. Flip Murray(notes) got the start (31 minutes, 11 points, 2 threes) ahead of D.J. Augustin(notes) (16 minutes, 3 points, 3 assists). 

• Line of the night had to go to Ben Wallace(notes), who didn't attempt a shot in 31 minutes: zero points, nine boards, three assists, zero turnovers, three steals, and three blocks. 

• The numbers sure look good right now (15.3 points on 55-percent shooting, 9.2 boards, 2 blocks in 32 minutes per game), but I've got little faith in Andrew Bogut(notes) staying healthy over the course of the season. The Bucks play the Warriors on Saturday and then have four-game schedules for each of the next three weeks. I might mark that first week of December as a good time to think about a "sell high" strategy if he's still getting it done at that point.

Mike Conley's(notes) string of off nights continued against the Rockets (17 minutes, 1-of-6, 2 points, 3 assists), and this time Marcus Williams got some serious run in his place (31 minutes, 3-of-11, 7 points, 7 assists). It's doubtful that Williams is any threat to his job at this point, but it's a situation to monitor while we also wait for an Allen Iverson(notes) update.

Aaron Brooks(notes) was also off in the game (26 minutes, 3-of-10, 8 points, 3 assists), despite it being decided early, paving the way for Kyle Lowry(notes) to get solid run (29 minutes, 8 points, 8 boards, 10 assists, 2 steals).

** For your Thursday fix of the current Curry Line standings, visit busersports.com

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30 Comments

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  1. KGOS-FM
    1. Posted by KGOS-FM Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:10 pm EST

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    um...the Knicks "frontcourt" is in flux? I always thought that the guards were in the backcourt. Silly me. There must have been some rule change that I missed.
    Dick Motta
  2. J.K
    2. Posted by J.K Thu Nov 12, 2009 8:10 pm EST

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    how petty, just take the good with the bad and get over your loft standards KGOS.
  3. Padoods
    3. Posted by Padoods Thu Nov 12, 2009 8:21 pm EST

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    #1 you dont sound as clever/witty as you might think. in fact the only thing you sound like is a jerk
  4. mankthetank
    4. Posted by mankthetank Thu Nov 12, 2009 9:00 pm EST

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    This is a great article Buser, very informative. The Ellis and various Warrior deterioration links, the 76ers link and the Jazz one as well were all very useful.
  5. Zack
    5. Posted by Zack Thu Nov 12, 2009 9:07 pm EST

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    Thanks Buser. These articles are very helpful. Some of the fantasy football guys could learn a lesson from you. cough Brad Evans
  6. brad s
    6. Posted by brad s Thu Nov 12, 2009 9:18 pm EST

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    Buser, why are you always so critical of Andrew Bogut. His numbers are on the improve and there is no reason to think his back isn't fully recovered considering the extensive time off he took over the off-season to repair it.
  7. Andrew B
    7. Posted by Andrew B Thu Nov 12, 2009 9:46 pm EST

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    what about Bibby waking up?
  8. Michael
    8. Posted by Michael Thu Nov 12, 2009 9:54 pm EST

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    very helpful, keep up the good work
  9. Marty McFly
    9. Posted by Marty McFly Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:07 pm EST

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    Link us to some of your fantasy genius there, K-GOS. Buser is carrying Yahoo Fantasy Basketball on his back this year.
    Comment about the "Dwight Howard" strategy post that you made in the preseason... 3 people (not me) in my draft obviously read that article and went in with that gameplan. Many were upset when I took Rondo. Funny stuff.
  10. david b
    10. Posted by david b Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:34 pm EST

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    Great analysis of the Sixers situation. They built an uptempo, athletic offense and have suddenly slowed it down, which hasn't benefited a single player or the team. Brand is lost out there, AI and Thaddeus Young aren't able to take advantage of their strengths, and Dalembert is having a hard time getting into a floor position he would usually instinctively play. Eddie Jordan is not the right fit for this team, and vice versa. It's already time they parted ways.
  11. MisterMr
    11. Posted by MisterMr Fri Nov 13, 2009 12:27 am EST

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    Troy Murphy updates?
  12. mbuser
    12. Posted by mbuser Fri Nov 13, 2009 12:30 am EST

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    brad s: i don't have any real personal bias against him, but maybe i do tend to be overly-cautious when it comes to certain injured players, and my advice reflects that. he certainly will have plenty of responsibilities on this thin team though. maybe i should have qualified the above blurb with something like "i wouldn't blame you for holding on to him"
    mcfly: that was a definite hazard that went with the strategy. the targets after you took D12 were as obvious to everyone in your league as they were to you
    david b: they really, really need a shooter on that starting five. what's interesting is that thad young played about 2/3 of his minutes at PF last season, yet it's fallen to about 1/3 this season when the system says that's exactly what he should be doing. i'm not sure what jordan is thinking - that quote is very odd, because he's talking about not wanting to offend people when there's already grumbling
  13. Kobe
    13. Posted by Kobe Fri Nov 13, 2009 3:43 am EST

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    Pau Gasol. Please stop calling him Paul Gasol.
  14. Groundhog
    14. Posted by Groundhog Fri Nov 13, 2009 4:26 am EST

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    I thought it was Yao Gasol?
  15. Travis T
    15. Posted by Travis T Fri Nov 13, 2009 4:35 am EST

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    He's channeling Hubie Brown! I say let it continue.
  16. Los Lobos
    16. Posted by Los Lobos Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:03 am EST

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    hahahaha paul gasol! man way to edit this scrap....fantasy analysis is baloney just a bunch of extreme reactions to players' daily outputs, fact is if you want to win your league the most important thing is having solid players that have a lot of games (and play in them) during your fantasy playoffs
  17. Los Lobos
    17. Posted by Los Lobos Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:11 am EST

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    in addition to knowing the regular season sched during your fantasy playoff, you have to also come into your draft knowing which category (for instance i usually choose ft %) you sacrifice off the bat you win your head to head match up week in and week out
  18. Dejan O
    18. Posted by Dejan O Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:43 am EST

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    Hey Buser thanks for the great info as always. It's great to have you back this season. What do you think the over/under is for the Knicks/Warriors game today? I think that 280 is definitely not out of the question?
  19. Dejan O
    19. Posted by Dejan O Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:53 am EST

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    Hey Lobos, you are quick to dismiss the fantasy experts, however judging by your "expertise" on your fantasy teams, your track record is CRAP! So you probably don't so much winning after all! Enjoy
  20. old school
    20. Posted by old school Fri Nov 13, 2009 10:59 am EST

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    Matt, would you consider taking over the "Big Board", at least for basketball. I would trust your rankings more, and it would probably get updated more than once per month. Just a suggestion. Buser's Big Board has a nice ring to it.
  21. christianishawt
    21. Posted by christianishawt Fri Nov 13, 2009 12:13 pm EST

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    Just dropped Curry for Taj Gibson.
    Can't stand anyone on GS right now. At least Chicago keeps it close so starters can get minutes. GS gets blown out in the third once a week. Scrub minutes.
  22. JSGM
    22. Posted by JSGM Fri Nov 13, 2009 2:17 pm EST

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    Los Lobos... You are a genius. With tips like that I'll take my fantasy league this year by storm!!!
    MMMmmm... Baloney or is it Bologna
    With advice so good, I'll start spelling it your way.
  23. Heynow
    23. Posted by Heynow Fri Nov 13, 2009 2:32 pm EST

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    Yeah go ahead and trade Andrew Bogut and then hate yourself the rest of the season when he puts up career numbers. Fantasy experts should really stop talking about selling high and buying low when the average person is in a public league where 2 to 4 trades happen all season and everybody is going to vote against your trade if you are getting any kind of good deal.
  24. Jason
    24. Posted by Jason Fri Nov 13, 2009 3:10 pm EST

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    I'd argue that Ben Wallace is more valuable now than back in 03-05. He hasn't been doing this in a lopsided minutes arrangement, and having him shoot only 2 shots a game instead of 9 means he is way less detrimental to both %s, I mean what's it matter his awful ft% when he only shoots 2 a game? This makes him valuable to both teams punting points and teams who are running away with points because they can both roster him.
  25. ShmoeDizzle
    25. Posted by ShmoeDizzle Fri Nov 13, 2009 5:13 pm EST

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    Wow Los Lobos, punting FT% in a H2H league? What a novel idea! I've never heard of anything so ingenius! Having the most games played in April and punting categories must be what makes H2H so much more fun than Rotisserie!

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