Roto Arcade - Fantasy

There's no reason to force a theme on you tonight – obviously June 30, 2009 will go down in world history as the day the Yankees acquired Eric Hinske. If the shock has worn off from that deal and you're ready to move onto other stories and players, enjoy the bulleted content below.

It's time to start collecting theories on Johan Santana's(notes) slump. He lost again at Milwaukee Tuesday (6 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 4 K), and he has just 18 strikeouts over his last six turns (to go along with a 6.19 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, the worst full month of his career). Is his surgically-repaired left knee giving him a problem? Is it a blister? Is he tipping his pitches? Perhaps it's a concentration issue – somehow, Santana has issued five walks to opposing pitchers over the course of the year. Let's collect as much intelligence as possible and get through this together, gamers. Santana's next turn comes on the weekend at Philadelphia.

The Rangers finally had a laugher at Arlington, throwing nine runs, four homers and five steals at Joe Saunders(notes) and the Angels. Marlon Byrd(notes) slugged two of the homers, while Elvis Andrus(notes) swiped four of the bags. The only Texas starter left out of the fun was, predictably, Chris Davis(notes); he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and is down to .202. What would it take to get this guy benched or demoted?

Derek Lowe(notes) took a step forward with a quality start against the Phillies (6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 K), though the execution wasn't as tidy as the numbers might suggest. Lowe's command was off most of the night – although he had just two unintentional walks, he was missing his target consistently – and the Phillies had him in trouble just about every inning. It's too early to say the sky is falling on this established pro, but at this point I'm expecting that his end-of-year ERA will be 4.00 or higher and everyone knows there's not a lot of strikeout upside here. If he beats Washington on the weekend, get aggressive and downshift into sell mode.

Jason Marquis(notes) continues to have a snappy little season that no one believes in. He threw a gem of a game at Chavez Ravine Tuesday night (two-hit shutout, 66 of 86 pitches were strikes), improving to 10-5 on the year, and yet he can't get a shred of respect in the fantasy community. Marquis has been on the NL Tout Wars trading block all season without a nibble, and in an NL-West-only mini draft this week that included 25 pitchers being selected, Marquis's name never came up.

Marquis has outperformed his FIP to this point but it's not a huge gap (4.36 vs. 4.22 entering Tuesday night), and a major ground-ball spike this year (57.2 percent) has kept him out of trouble more often than not. It's never easy recommending a low-strikeout arm or a Coors Field pitcher, but I've finally accepted that this Marquis run isn't one giant fluke.

The surging George Sherrill(notes) grabbed save No. 17 on Tuesday, stranding a couple of Boston runners and putting the caps on a crazy win for the Orioles (Boston led 10-1 at one juncture, then watched the hosts score 10 runs in the seventh and eighth innings). If the Baltimore front office is thinking proactively, it will realize how fungible relief pitching can be and aggressively shop Sherrill at the trade deadline; he must be impressing some other clubs right now, given that he's been scored on just once in his last 21 appearnces. Star center fielder Adam Jones(notes) wasn't a part of Tuesday's rally; he left the game early after crashing into the outfield wall. We'll check on his shoulder and neck Wednesday.

Injury Blog: The second opinion on Carlos Beltran's(notes) knee came back positive – he's merely got a bone bruise, apparently, and although a timetable hasn't been set yet, the club is hoping he'll be able to come back after the All-Star break. … Josh Hamilton(notes) (abdomen) remains on pace to potentially rejoin the Rangers this weekend, with Saturday being the earliest day the Rangers would get him back. The key test comes Thursday, when he'll get aminor-league start in the outfield. … Adrian Gonzalez(notes) left Tuesday's game with a strained right knee; we'll see what we learn on this Wednesday. … Scott Downs(notes) (toe) had a little discomfort during his bullpen session Tuesday but nothing major. He's probably week-to-week at this point. … Rather than consider Mike Lowell(notes) (hip) day-to-day for an extended period of time, the Red Sox decided to put him on the DL and pick up a healthy body for the interim. He shouldn't be out past the minimum rest time. … The Mariners think they might have Erik Bedard(notes) (shoulder) ready to go Saturday against Boston (on a limited pitch count, per the Seattle Times), but Adrian Beltre(notes) (shoulder) finally had surgery and is gone for 6-8 weeks. … Nate McLouth(notes) (hamstring) and Yunel Escobar(notes) (hip) remain absent from the top of the Atlanta order, though each player took BP Tuesday and were in the preliminary lineup. … Matt Lindstrom's(notes) elbow apparently isn't in such terrible shape, and he might be able to begin a throwing program this weekend according to the Miami Herald. While he's getting right, Fredi Gonzalez will continue to mix and match in the ninth inning, with Dan Meyer(notes) and Leo Nunez(notes) getting most of the consideration. … Chipper Jones(notes) tok an awkward swing during his second at-bat Tuesday and briefly slumped to the ground in discomfort, but he wasn't forced out of the game. When we're talking about a player with Chipper's recent physical history, you take every nick and tweak seriously.

Speed Round: Jimmy Rollins(notes) was back in the Philly lineup but with the same old results - 0-for-5, two strikeouts. He's hitless over his last 24 trips. … Everybody gets hit sometimes department – Chris Carpenter(notes) (5 IP, 11 H, 6 R) didn't have it against the Giants, and Cliff Lee(notes) was batting practice for the White Sox (3 IP, 11 H, 7 R) . . . Albert Pujols(notes) (two more homers) isn't from this planet, and that's all I have to say about that. … Ryan Theriot(notes) was dropped to the No. 8 spot against Pittsburgh. He had one of Chicago's six hits on the night in the shutout loss; the unassuming Ross Ohlendorf(notes) had his way with the Cubs offense (7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K). … Brandon Morrow's(notes) return to the starting rotation continues to be a work in progress; his messiest start to date came Tuesday at Yankee Stadium (4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 4 K). He's yet to work more than five innings since the change came a few weeks ago. … J.P. Howell(notes) worked for the fourth time in five games and put away the Jays with a scoreless ninth inning. … It took a little while for Gordon Beckham(notes) to get comfortable, but he's been swinging sweetly for the White Sox over the last five days (10-for-17, with a homer and bag thrown in). He's up to .267 over 75 at-bats.

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Images via Associated Press

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51 Comments

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  1. pianow
    1. Posted by pianow Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:01 am EDT

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    Will the Nationals ever beat the Marlins? Will teams ever stop pitching to Albert Pujols? Will Boston's collapse tonight leave a mark, or be forgotten quickly? Let's throw around the Tuesday baseball.
  2. The Delicious One
    2. Posted by The Delicious One Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:26 am EDT

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    So, buy, sell or hold on Johan? is it possible to get 90% value on him or are we stuck with a slew of crappy deals?
  3. RKO
    3. Posted by RKO Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:29 am EDT

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    Good to see the power and speed return to Hanley's game, and I really don't get why anyone would pitch to Pujols with the garbage hitting behind him.
  4. WilliamW
    4. Posted by WilliamW Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:36 am EDT

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    My league has a trade, Johan for Manny, if that helps.
    Tulo? Is he for real? I'm using him while Reyes is out, when he comes back i'm thinking of using him as UTIL, or should I sell high?
  5. Tom Bos Jr.
    5. Posted by Tom Bos Jr. Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:41 am EDT

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    I like Beckham, kid's gonna be a star in the near future, but I think the lack of upward mobility in that lineup limits his value for this season
  6. hawnlay
    6. Posted by hawnlay Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:49 am EDT

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    Probably goes without saying, but Joe Nathan nails down the 1-run lead save.
  7. Tom Bos Jr.
    7. Posted by Tom Bos Jr. Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:58 am EDT

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    Albert Pujols is the offspring of Kratos
  8. bush07idiot
    8. Posted by bush07idiot Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:11 am EDT

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    poo poo coolo
  9. Barry M
    9. Posted by Barry M Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:14 am EDT

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    I paid up for Beckham in a dynasty 20 team league. Gave up Billingsley and the league thought I had lost my mind. Looks like I might have shot craps and struck gold. Guys don't move from college through the minors like that unless they are named Mark Teixeira or whatever that guys name was at Atlanta back in the late 1970's that went straight from AZ state to the pros. Santana, I don't know. Have him in a keeper league and I think he might be on the block. Marquis is interesting. I haven't paid much attention. Strange year from my standpoint, as I drafted what I thought were solid players and didn't get any of the guys that have been average or worse the past 8 years that now look like all stars.
  10. The Hawaiiangiant
    10. Posted by The Hawaiiangiant Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:16 am EDT

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    reimold, rasmus or milledge going forward? milledge has that combo potential over rasmus and reimold. or do you take the orioles lineup/hitting in front of prince albert? any thoughts?
  11. Blake H
    11. Posted by Blake H Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:19 am EDT

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    Hey Scott, do you trust Kevin Correia vs. HOU @ Petco?
    Do you think he's a good stream option?
  12. jlahey97
    12. Posted by jlahey97 Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:24 am EDT

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    It's almost not even fair to have Pujols on your team. Fantasy and real life. Think he takes a legit run at the single season home run crown?
  13. Josh C
    13. Posted by Josh C Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:45 am EDT

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    I would probably jump on Manny for Johan right now, but where I have Johan, I also have Manny... Fangraphs has a writeup on year-over-year UZR comparisons to last year. The Mets rank 28th in UZR difference from last season (projecting this year's half season to full-season stats). Link: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/year-over-12year-uzr-figures Could it be as simple for Johan as the defense not playing as well behind him? The Mets team ERA is up to 4.26 so far this season from 4.07 last season (and remember how terrible the bullpen was last year?)
  14. imabigcheesynerd
    14. Posted by imabigcheesynerd Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:59 am EDT

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    he's from planet melmac
  15. drinkCOORSsmokeBUDeatBUSCH
    15. Posted by drinkCOORSsmokeBUDeatBUSCH Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:00 am EDT

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    Roto Arcade Pro-Am bad decision #172: Starting Blanton against a Braves lineup that seemed feeble, and also suffering from previous-start-fear-impact leaving Marquis on the bench to top it off.
  16. drinkCOORSsmokeBUDeatBUSCH
    16. Posted by drinkCOORSsmokeBUDeatBUSCH Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:03 am EDT

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    Pujols isn't from another planet, he's rather from the spaceship on Mystery Science Theater 3000. Tom Servo accidentaly made him in a lab skit gone wrong.
  17. Winter
    17. Posted by Winter Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:58 am EDT

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    The Nats should have beaten the Marlins last night if not for (yet another) bullpen meltdown. Hopefully Burnett can help. Getting rid of Hanrahan was a good move. Although you also have to remember the game ended in the bottom of the seventh without the Nats having a chance to respond. I'm starting to get the impression that the Nationals are going to be the next team to come out of nowhere and start winning a bunch of games. Well, if Nick Johnson can come off the schneid, that is.
    I also picked up Nolan Reimold last week while dropping Juan Pierre. At the time, I was a little apprehensive. But it looks like Reimold might go so far as to hit cleanup because Aubrey Huff isn't getting it done.
  18. Paul Da Man
    18. Posted by Paul Da Man Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:45 am EDT

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    What is Adrian Gonzalez doing sliding into third anyway? He should be clubbing dingers and settling for doubles when they don't go over the wall so he doesn't get hurt. I will hold him personally responsible if I lose walks this week.
  19. Chris H
    19. Posted by Chris H Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:53 am EDT

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    Johan almost always has a bad month to six weeks during the season, and is untouchable the rest of the time. Difference this year is, it is usually out of the blocks, not after knee surgery, and not after having spring training elbow issues. Almost traded for him a couple of weeks ago, the guy wouldn't make up his mind and the trade died. I normally hate when an offer sits out there long enough to doe - bad fantasy etiquette - but in this case, I am glad he didn't pull the trigger! Something is up and it is more than bad defense, or a less than stellar bullpen. The pen was worse last year and he did just fine. I want no part of Johan the rest of the way.
    The ESPN commercial with Pujols as a machine pretty much nail that - he is just not human.
  20. Pfeared
    20. Posted by Pfeared Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:55 am EDT

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    I hope Albert isn't from Planet Steroid from a baseball fan perspective (Cards are my favorite NL team as someone who grew up watching Bob Gibson, and wearing an Orlando Cepeda glove). From a fantasy standpoint I hope they at least don't catch him at anything until after the season. I got Albert with the second pick in the draft (the other guy took Reyes, which is the sort of thing I usually do, so I feel his pain). It has been a fun ride for my O stats so far!
  21. yellowgold
    21. Posted by yellowgold Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:15 am EDT

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    what\s the word on smoltz? 54 pitches? was it the 4 runs or something else?
  22. Admiral Cowpollock
    22. Posted by Admiral Cowpollock Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:16 am EDT

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    Morrow's start at Yankee Stadium was messy, what about Joba's? It was a train wreck too. Joba is definitely not living up to his 100 O-rank. Drop!
  23. Mike P
    23. Posted by Mike P Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:17 am EDT

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    Squirrel, I like the REM reference. You need to get an Old Warrior or Stormy Sail reference in there. Anyway, I misplaced your multitude of email addresses. Can you shoot me an email at mparrillo309@yahoo.com. I picked up a present for ya while at Flagler. No, it's not the LGP-type board game. I need your address. Thanks, Ned
  24. Paul B
    24. Posted by Paul B Wed Jul 01, 2009 10:14 am EDT

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    Smoltz got pulled because of a long rain delay after the fourth inning. He was cruising at that point with his team up big, so it sucks for those who owned him (including me).

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