Roto Arcade - Fantasy

Fri Sep 12, 2008 3:01 am EDT

Closing Time: The Wizard of Oz

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__5/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-233517531-1221216380.jpg?ymlDYrADxzuJ1HcGPitchers tease us, pitchers thrill us, pitchers break our heart and pitchers ultimately decide fantasy titles. We'll open this closing time with the starters, and we'll finish it with the bullpen aces.

Make it 32.1 scoreless innings for Roy Oswalt, who mowed down the Pirates Thursday with a tidy three-hitter. He needed just 90 pitches (70 strikes), and got 19 ground-ball outs. The streaking Astros are now just three games out in the Wild Card race, but their run will be put on hold for a while; Hurricane Ike is about to hit Texas, forcing Houston and Chicago to cancel their scheduled games for Friday and Saturday. Sunday's game is no sure thing, either; the Houston Texans moved their home opener against Baltimore to Monday night.

Oswalt's run certainly caught a lot of us by surprise. He's finally nudged his strikeout rate up a speck after three straight years of decline and he's had better control than a year ago, but there's some other red ink on the file: a notable line-drive jump and homer spike. I guess at the end of the day it comes down to expectations; Oswalt shouldn't be priced as a fantasy ace at the table next year, but he's a reliable guy as your No. 3 or No. 4 option in a mixed league.

Rich Harden made his first start in just about two weeks Thursday, and it was a solid effort, if not a dominant one (6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 K). His velocity was down all night, something the Cubs downplayed afterwards. "I don't know why everybody puts so much on velocity," Harden said after the win. "Location is the most important thing, change of speed. I realize that this year more than any other. I used to try to rear back and throw it as hard as I could every pitch. I've done better trying to take something off and locating. When you need it, you've got a little extra." Alrighty, ace.

The Blue Jays aren't giving up on the Wild Card chase, even as they're not really that close (6.5 games out). Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and Jesse Litsch will all pitch on three days of rest in the Boston series this weekend (remember the teams have a double-dip Saturday).

Is it time to think about shutting down Matt Cain for the year? He was rocked for the third consecutive turn Thursday (3.1 IP, 9 H, 6 R), and over his last five starts he's managed just 16 strikeouts (against 15 walks). Something isn't right here.

Jered Weaver didn't have any problems with the cuts on his pitching hand Thursday, blanking the Mariners for six innings (and outpitching Brandon Morrow). Weaver probably needs to keep throwing well if he wants to be in the team's playoff rotation.

Livan Hernandez has been taken out of the Colorado rotation, much to the chagrin of hitters everywhere. The AL posted a .341 average against The Human Batting Tee this year, and it's been a .358 clip in the NL.

Adrian Gonzalez has slowed down some in the second half, but he was on his game Thursday, clouting homers 30 and 31 and pushing his RBI count to 103. I can't wait to see what this guy does some year if he leaves San Diego.

Mark Ellis is down for the year and probably headed for shoulder surgery. His .233 average definitely left a mark for roto players this year, but keep in mind he also contributed 12 homers and 14 stolen bases over 117 games (in addition to excellent defense). He could be a sneaky value next season, depending on where he signs.

Adrian Beltre is going to need thumb surgery and he's also got a bum shoulder, but he hasn't decided if he wants to squash the final two weeks of the season. He's been surprisingly productive of late despite the ailments, collecting 26 hits and five homers over his current 14-game hitting streak.

Injury Lap: Jeremy Guthrie will rest his tired arm this weekend and miss a turn. I don't see what's to be gained by pitching him again this year, and it's past cut-bait time for those fantasy invested . . . Paul Konerko (knee) won't play this weekend, according to Ozzie Guillen . . . Joe Crede is getting a second opinion on his back, another clear sign that we shouldn't expect him to return in 2008 . . . Josh Hamilton stroked three more hits Thursday, then had to leave the game in the eighth inning after taking a ball off his right foot. He's day-to-day . . . George Sherrill (shoulder) was activated Thursday, but he wasn't called into the game even as the Orioles had a save situation. Jim Miller got the conversion, getting a scoreless ninth despite a pair of baserunners . . . Troy Glaus doesn't have any structural damage to his shoulder, so he has a shot at playing this weekend. I'd suggest a safer play, even if it's a mild drop-down in name-brand value. 

You give Francisco Rodriguez a three-run lead in the ninth inning, he's probably going to hold it. That was the case again Thursday, as he put away the Mariners and collected save No. 57, tying Bobby Thigpen's major-league record. Let's hope misguided voters don't run with this team-context stat and give K-Rod the Cy Young Award; that trophy belongs on Cliff Lee's mantle, and anyone who's actually paying attention realizes that. Look under the hood with K-Rod's numbers and you can build a strong argument that he's not even the AL's best closer this year, let along the top pitcher. (Yeah, this rant has run before in this space, similar words anyway. It's the last time I'll subject you to it, unless Rodriguez actually wins the Cy Young. If that happens, I might need to give myself a 24-hour ban from the blogosphere.).

Less-visible handshakes from Thursday: Brad Lidge (36, still perfect); Joakim Soria (36); B.J. Ryan (29); and Kerry Wood (30, despite two baserunners and a meeting with Albert Pujols).

Hope you were able to shake down some stats from this 10-game slate; we'll do it all again tomorrow night. And before the season ends, we'll give you a cookie on the way out: preliminary 2009 fantasy baseball ranks. More info on that to come.

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Photo via Getty Images

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25 Comments

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  1. Miotch
    1. Posted by Miotch Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:22 pm EDT

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    The two (or three) postponed games this weekend have the potential to really do some damage to fantasy teams this weekend. It's the playoffs and a good number of people are going to be missing key guys on both the offensive side and the pitching side.
    Oh, and first.
  2. a-mak15
    2. Posted by a-mak15 Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:51 pm EDT

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    "Mark" William Ellis is the name you're looking for. Oh, and Mora made his successful return yesterday picking up where he left off with two hits.
  3. a-mak15
    3. Posted by a-mak15 Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:51 pm EDT

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    One hit, sorry, two RBI. We all make mistakes.
  4. Sir Baron Von Bagglesworth
    4. Posted by Sir Baron Von Bagglesworth Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:08 pm EDT

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    Good ol' Matt Ellis...
  5. JacobW
    5. Posted by JacobW Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:45 pm EDT

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    Where the blue f@%# is David Price? I've been saving my last transaction for three weeks in our keeper league to nab this guy. What gives, Tampa Bay?
  6. Bartolo
    6. Posted by Bartolo Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:02 pm EDT

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    Starting Parra, Baker and Meche today, H2H league. Any thoughts?
  7. GrNRvR
    7. Posted by GrNRvR Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:18 pm EDT

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    Meche = no bueno. Stay away from Cleveland. And he's going against Cliff Lee
  8. DOD
    8. Posted by DOD Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:44 pm EDT

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    Parra is going against Hamels, tough matchup there as well.
  9. Bartolo
    9. Posted by Bartolo Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:02 pm EDT

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    I know that both Meche and Parra have tough matchups, that's why I was asking. Meche dominated the Indians last week and has a sub-3.00 ERA over the last 16 starts, might not get the win vs. Lee, but hoping for quality K's and ratios. Probably gonna sit Parra, seems too dangerous.
  10. Trent Thomason
    10. Posted by Trent Thomason Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:19 pm EDT

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    Is Lyon still the closer in Arizona?
  11. DOD
    11. Posted by DOD Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:44 pm EDT

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    Yes Lyon is the closer.
    Suprised no mention of Prince's first HR in about a month. He tends to hit them in bunches and with the finals next week for me, I hope that is the case!
  12. AgentUtah
    12. Posted by AgentUtah Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:01 pm EDT

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    I'd take a chance on Meche. Not sure about Parra on the road. Howard appears to be in his vintage September form.
    I think Prince and Ryan Howard were back-to-back in the preseason rankings this year. Don't think it's going to be that way next year unless Prince decides beef is what's for dinner again.
  13. Mr. Smiley Face
    13. Posted by Mr. Smiley Face Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

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    3rd or 4th option in a mixed league? Roy Oswalt still gets very little credit outside of Houston. To say you shouldn't count on him being an ace next year is ridiculous. His strikeouts were down because the coaching staff decided to convert him to a groundball pitcher for some odd reason. After a few tries, he has finally gone back to his old dominant self. The strikeouts aren't there as much as before, but recently he's pitching better than he has in his career.
  14. gts
    14. Posted by gts Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:14 pm EDT

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    I'm not taking the chance on Meche today. Right now my opponent and I are in the semis and tied 0-0 in the loss column, 9-6 me overall. Too much risk against Lee.
    I'm even debating sitting Shields tomorrow against NY.
  15. Kyle W
    15. Posted by Kyle W Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    you are crazy, put roy in the NL or AL is he is a top 5 guy
  16. pianow
    16. Posted by pianow Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    Maybe I'm a little low on Oswalt. We'll see where he comes up when I do the first pass at 2009 ranks.
  17. C. Ohman
    17. Posted by C. Ohman Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:29 pm EDT

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    Come on now, lets be honest, a number 3 or 4 starter in your rotation??? Oswalt is better than that.
    Oswalt is paying off in spades for those owners in the playoffs who actually kept him all year when his ERA was around 5 and whip was a FAT 1.45 before he took off in july.
  18. CMUTIMMAH!!!
    18. Posted by CMUTIMMAH!!! Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:55 pm EDT

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    i still can't believe somoene dropped oswalt... and i've been paid handsomely for that disbelief.
  19. Roger
    19. Posted by Roger Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:49 pm EDT

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    Oswalt shouldn't be priced as a fantasy ace at the table next year,
    Must be a joke!
  20. Toronto23
    20. Posted by Toronto23 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    What!
    The Blue Jays aren't giving up on the Wild Card chase, even as they're not really that close (6.5 games out)
    Come talk to us on Monday when they sweep the Red Sox in 4 over the weekend.
  21. Rocky Mtn Stampede
    21. Posted by Rocky Mtn Stampede Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:27 pm EDT

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    Price should be gobbled up in all keeper leagues, but I doubt he makes a start in September for the Rays. He will be pitching out of the pen. He won't win your league.
  22. Timmy C
    22. Posted by Timmy C Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:10 pm EDT

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    no love for Shawn Marcum? Hes turned in a great start Thursday and got the win. Looks like he is back to form after being sent down to the minors and definately gave my fantasy team a boost this week
  23. jay g
    23. Posted by jay g Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:34 pm EDT

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    i think it would make a lot more sense for K-rod to get MVP instead of Cy Young. He's clearly not the best pitcher, but he MAY be the most valuable player
  24. ShmoeDizzle
    24. Posted by ShmoeDizzle Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:24 pm EDT

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    What's more baffling?
    Carlos Silva's $48 million contract or Livan Hernandez' 12-year career?
  25. Miotch
    25. Posted by Miotch Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:22 pm EDT

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    Trick question.
    Ditka is God.

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