Roto Arcade - Fantasy

Fri Jul 03, 2009 2:48 am EDT

Closing Time: Free passes for Pujols

No doubt fireworks are on the way with the holiday weekend upon us, but there weren't a lot of explosions from the Thursday activity on the sandlots. Here's a peek at the notes I collected.

Given how Albert Pujols(notes) has ripped through the National League over the decade, he's been walked less than you might suspect. Last year was the first time he collected more than 100 free passes (including 34 intentional walks), though he's going to sail past those numbers this year, sitting at 64 walks with 28 intentional. The Giants shifted their strategy after Pujols homered twice on Tuesday – Sir Albert received four intentional passes over the final two games of the series, including one in the first inning of Wednesday's game. Ryan Ludwick(notes) stands to benefit if Pujols starts receiving the "Bonds treatment" – he drove in three runs over the past two games, and has started to take some better cuts this week.

Pittsburgh outfielder Garrett Jones(notes) has spent most of this decade in the minors and his prospect status expired a while ago (he just turned 28), but that doesn't mean we can discount him out of hand. He was in the midst of a solid campaign (.307, 12 homers, 14 steals) before the Pirates recalled him Wednesday, and Jones made an impact in his second start, collecting three extra-base hits (double, triple, homer) against the Mets. Jones batted third in his Pittsburgh debut and fifth Thursday, for what it's worth. You could make a worse spec play in deeper mixed groups.

John Lackey(notes) was excellent for the third time in four starts Thursday (8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K) and he's probably someone I priced too low on the current Shuffle Up and Deal dollar values. He's gone at least seven innings in all but one of his last eight starts; when Lackey is right, this is a horse who gives you a chance to win every five days. He's going to allow his share of fly balls and homers, sure, but with his strikeout rate rallying back of late (31 over his last 30 innings), there's no reason to be paranoid here. Lackey should miss enough bats to be successful.

The Diamondbacks played their usual game at Cincinnati Thursday – Mark Reynolds(notes) homered, Stephen Drew(notes) went hitless, and the Snakes lost. Doug Davis(notes) also followed his personal script to the season (pitching well with no win), allowing just one run over seven innings despite a whopping 11 baserunners. It would be nice if fantasy owners could sell high on Davis's 3.15 ERA (his FIP is in the mid-4s), but good luck finding someone who actually believes in this journeyman. His next start comes at home against San Diego.

Derrek Lee(notes) didn't hit a lick in April but he's been mashing ever since – .326, 13 homers, 38 RBIs. He knocked two balls over the ivy and drive in seven as the Cubs cruised pass Milwaukee Thursday night. Alfonso Soriano(notes) once again was a healthy scratch; Sam Fuld(notes) lead off and went 2-for-4 with a walk (the same line as Wednesday night).

Mark Buehrle(notes) had the Royals off balance all night Thursday, taking a shutout into the ninth despite just one strikeout. The hosts eventually got a run on David DeJesus's(notes) bloop double, setting up a cheap save for Bobby Jenks(notes). Mark Teahen(notes), who's owned Buehrle through the years, had two of Kansas City's six hits. Buehrle's next turn is a home start against scuffling Cleveland.

Trey Hillman says that Miguel Olivo(notes) will keep his regular at-bats even when John Buck(notes) is ready to play again. Olivo's 12 homers in 190 at-bats get your attention, but he's walked just twice all year and it's unlikely he'll be hitting .258 very much longer. How badly do you need some pop at the position?

Tim Redding(notes) was hammered yet again for the Mets Thursday (2.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R), pushing his ERA to 6.99 and his WHIP to 1.57. How many starts is New York going to waste on this guy? He's already toed the rubber nine times, and the Mets are just 3-6 in those games (albeit they rallied to win at Pittsburgh Thursday). You're a big market club, New York – figure something out.

Speed Round: Alex Gordon(notes) (hip) has hit Triple-A in his rehab work and should be back in the majors after the All-Star break. … Nate McLouth(notes) (hamstring) took BP and did some running Thursday but Bobby Cox nonetheless kept him out of the lineup. Yunel Escobar(notes) (hip) was able to go, however; he went 1-for-3, batting fifth. … Jimmy Rollins(notes) had a pair of singles at Atlanta, snapping his 0-for-28 skid. … Alexei Ramirez(notes) (finger) missed another game, while Jayson Nix(notes) homered in his absence. Ramirez says the injury only bothers him when he's throwing the ball, and it looks like he'll probably go Friday. … Todd Wellemeyer(notes) held the Giants down with a strong turn (7.1 IP, 2 R) and probably saved his rotation spot in the process. … A swarm of bees delayed the Astros and Padres for 52 minutes Thursday. Don't blame this one on Biggio and Bagwell – the game was played in San Diego. The Astros quieted the Kevin Correia(notes) buzz when order was restored, knocking him around for eight hits and six runs. … Is Ichiro(notes) Suzuki going to give Joe Mauer(notes) a run for his money? Ichiro hit .407 in June and he collected two more hits at Yankee Stadium Thursday, along with his 17th stolen base. Russell Branyan added his 20th homer in the top of the ninth, counterfeiting David Aardsma's(notes) save chance. … Jorge Posada(notes) had a minor thumb injury and was rested Thursday. … Joey Votto(notes) has been unstoppable since returning to the Reds, and he had four hits in Thursday's win, including the walk-off hit in the bottom of the tenth. It would be nice if Dusty Baker would wise up to Ryan Hanigan's(notes) professional bat; the good-looking catcher got a start and went 3-for-3, upping his average to .336. … Scratch Raul Ibanez(notes) (groin) and Mark DeRosa(notes) (wrist) from your weekend plans; neither player will be able to go until next week at the earliest. Ibanez's rehab assignment, twice pushed back, is now scheduled to begin Friday. … Bobby Abreu has three homers over the last eight games (including two Thursday) after hitting just three in his first 63 starts. With or without the power, he's still a useful fantasy player because the eyes (45 walks) and wheels (17-for-20 on steals) are intact.

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32 Comments

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  1. pianow
    1. Posted by pianow Fri Jul 03, 2009 2:53 am EDT

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    You know it's a slow news day when intentional walks lead off. Got anything interesting from the sandlot that you want to talk about?
  2. jlahey97
    2. Posted by jlahey97 Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:03 am EDT

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    How do you feel about Chad Gaudin tomorrow night against the Dodgers, especially with Mannywood-less coming back?
    And at least somebody figured out not to pitch to Pujols finally. Only took 2 HRs in one game against them for them to figure it out, but at least they got it eventually.
  3. STEALTH
    3. Posted by STEALTH Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:07 am EDT

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    Yeah, Scott, I want to talk Brewers (big surprise). When are the Brewers going to pick up some pitching? Suppan, Bush, Parra, Looper, McClung, and anyone else they're throwing out there not named Yovani are all awful. Sure, Milwaukee's tied for first in the NL central, but not for long with that pitching...
    And on Ichiro, when is he going to let up? I traded him away in the blog league because I was 1st in AVG, and Ichiro has been accumulating far fewer R, RBI, SB than previous years... I also assumed at some point Ichiro would stop hitting .400, but maybe not...
  4. flydfan1
    4. Posted by flydfan1 Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:08 am EDT

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    I would also like to know why hanigan isnt in the everyday lineup? Baker is only starting him once or twice a week...
  5. drinkCOORSsmokeBUDeatBUSCH
    5. Posted by drinkCOORSsmokeBUDeatBUSCH Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:11 am EDT

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    Mets should try to trade for Michael Bowden. Their prospects are crap, but maybe the Sox would accept Ron Darling in return? He's magic in the booth.
  6. drinkCOORSsmokeBUDeatBUSCH
    6. Posted by drinkCOORSsmokeBUDeatBUSCH Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:13 am EDT

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    Having a member of the '86 Mets would sit great with the Boston fans
  7. speedster
    7. Posted by speedster Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:22 am EDT

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    Makes me feel good to know back in the June 6 pitcher Shuffle Up and Deal article, I already saw that Lackey was being priced too low. Come on, Scott, show a little more love to Felix Hernandez, John Lackey, and Gil Meche! You're constantly pricing these aces curiously low- and Beckett and Verlander curiously high- and I can't see why. Felix and Meche are young and still have quite a bit of upside, while Lackey has always been solid. (I do realize I'm starting to sound like a King Felix cheerleader- haha)
  8. WilliamW
    8. Posted by WilliamW Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:25 am EDT

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    Because Baker is an idiot. Ask any Giants or Cubs fan.
  9. pianow
    9. Posted by pianow Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:29 am EDT

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    Projecting pitching is the trickiest part of this game, and it will humble us. RE, you don't remember mocking Beckett last month? It's harder than it looks. Meche, I need to know that his back is okay. As for my price on Felix, it's already pretty lofty. If people like him a little more than I do, that's okay.
  10. pianow
    10. Posted by pianow Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:43 am EDT

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    It is so very much Dusty to pick the veteran over the kid. That much is true.
  11. a-mak15
    11. Posted by a-mak15 Fri Jul 03, 2009 3:45 am EDT

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    expert, Felix Hernandez is right where he belongs in the rankings. Sabathia-Verlander-Josh Johnson territory; I think that's a little generous, to tell you the truth. His career WHIP is 1.30. If you're drafting today, the names around him are likely to match or exceed his production *and* give you a better shot at picking up the W every fifth day. To bump Beckett and Verlander down, is to say that they're in the Vazquez-Lee-Cain tier, which they clearly aren't.
    Maholm getting roughed up by a depleted Mets squad - did NOT see that coming. At the very least, I thought a QS was in order. Brutal. I sat through it, too (owner, NL-only).
  12. Drawman
    12. Posted by Drawman Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:21 am EDT

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    Jimmy Rollins went 2-4
    Prepare for another 0-20 slump people!
  13. Daniel
    13. Posted by Daniel Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:24 am EDT

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    Bertie has 30 HRs already, ridiculous.
  14. paul g
    14. Posted by paul g Fri Jul 03, 2009 5:50 am EDT

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    Is that Sabathia catching for the Giants?? Sheesh.
  15. Shucky
    15. Posted by Shucky Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:57 am EDT

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    Did you see the swarm of bees that interrupted the Padres game? You tube it......Go Soto and Jake "the Rake" Fox with your collective bad selves. And here's to buying low on Cliff Lee.........Was Macdougal and R. Soriano too much?
  16. Shucky
    16. Posted by Shucky Fri Jul 03, 2009 9:01 am EDT

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    You did see it. I should read closer.
  17. joe w
    17. Posted by joe w Fri Jul 03, 2009 9:17 am EDT

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    J-Rolls is the ultimate buy-low. He will be the National League 2nd Half MVP. As will Josh Hamilton in the AL; great 2nd Half and ideal buy-low. Sell Tori Hunter and Raul Ibanez. Your welcome. BTW...thanks Piano Man and friends. The input you give(both informative and off-base) provides plenty of fuel for us normal folk. Gracias.
  18. George O. Bluth, II
    18. Posted by George O. Bluth, II Fri Jul 03, 2009 9:26 am EDT

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    that intentional walk to Pujols in the first wasn't any oridinary intentional pass - it loaded the bases with no outs.
  19. ruio99
    19. Posted by ruio99 Fri Jul 03, 2009 9:31 am EDT

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    Garrett Jones might be worth keeping an eye on based solely on the "late-bloomer" possibility, but a close look at the track record tells me to pass:
    This year was his 5th season in AAA, all in the same league. After something like 2400 PA there, if he has any ability at all, he should have been putting up numbers like he did this year. He has AAA career numbers of .265 (BA) and .321 (OBP), which are pretty uninspiring. The SB look like a mirage- he never stole more than 12 in a season before this year, and has a total of 54 swipes over 11 minor league seasons. He does have some pop (consistently good 2B and HR numbers throughout his career) and was like an RBI machine, so there is some talent there. But I wouldn't look at his 2009 AAA line and start thinking he will be the next Nelson Cruz; I would guess his ceiling would be more like Michael Cuddyer.
  20. Matt D
    20. Posted by Matt D Fri Jul 03, 2009 9:35 am EDT

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    I may be the only one wondering this, but what happens to Teahen's value when Alex Gordon comes back to the lineup? He wouldn't play 3rd, and probably not 2nd with Callaspo exceeding expectations. Right field?...1st possibly?
  21. jhiggs86
    21. Posted by jhiggs86 Fri Jul 03, 2009 10:28 am EDT

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    when are they going to make fantasy baseball stat tracker free now that football is free?
  22. Trigga Play
    22. Posted by Trigga Play Fri Jul 03, 2009 12:36 pm EDT

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    jhiggs: next season
  23. Eric
    23. Posted by Eric Fri Jul 03, 2009 1:21 pm EDT

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    Hey Scott, Aramis Ramirez said in an interview yesterday that his goal is to be back in the Cubs lineup by Monday. His rehab assignment is expected to start today.
  24. BrettJ
    24. Posted by BrettJ Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:46 pm EDT

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    #17, I disagree with selling Hunter. The dude has BA, power and speed so even if he falls off in one of those categories, odds are he'd still maintain the norm in the other two. Ibanez is trickier cause hes coming off an injury so selling him IMO is a toss-up but i would definately hold onto Hunter.
  25. pepper
    25. Posted by pepper Fri Jul 03, 2009 5:05 pm EDT

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    Jose Reyes? How certain is he to come back soon after all star break? If you are in a keeper league and moderately in contention this year, would you be willing to swap Jeter for Reyes? Jeter and Markakis for Reyes would be a bit much, yes?

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