Roto Arcade

A lot of fantasy owners like to take a passive approach to the opening of a season, letting things settle, not reacting too much. Me, I'm a tinkerer, I'm a searcher, I'm always thinking there's a player or a situation or a trend, something, that we can get to before the opponent, giving us the leg up. Let's keep that theme in mind as we sort through the fantasy winners and losers from NHL training camps and the opening four games.

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Filip Kuba, D, Senators: Is this guy really available in 71 percent of Y! leagues out there? Time to fix that, peeps. Immediately. Kuba's got a journeyman's resume and he's never topped 37 points in a season, but we might see a surprising career year emerge now that he's been given the keys to the Ottawa power play. He logged the most PP time of any Senator on the weekend, collecting three assists in the opening two games.

And let's tack on a roto tip at the end of this recommendation. The first month of play might be the richest time for hockey's waiver wire, as teams sort through their rotations and unappreciated gems get uncovered. Watch the power-play times like a hawk, and take advantage of the free Center Ice preview whenever possible. Now is a time to be aggressive, your best chance to capitalize from the collective league mistakes on draft night.

Alex Goligoski, D, Penguins: His five pre-season assists didn't get him a start on opening night, but the Pens quickly went to the bullpen on Sunday after the man advantage opened up 0-for-7. Goligoski isn't a savior on the point but he is handy as a specialist; he rolled up 10-28-38 numbers in 70 AHL games last season, and lo and behold, he tallied a power-play goal for Pittsburgh at the end of Sunday's loss.

With Sergei Gonchar pretty much done for the season and Ryan Whitney down for 4-6 weeks, here's another spot where it pays to be aggressive. If Goligoski doesn't pan out, no worries, you toss him out like a cell phone on The Wire. If something clicks, you've got a defenseman riding shotgun on one of the league's most dangerous power plays. Don't ask why when the environment makes sense . . . ask why not?

Another NFL week is in the books, and very little has changed atop the list of the league's worst defenses.

Detroit?

Yeah, they're still bad. Seriously bad. Perhaps historically bad.

St. Louis?

They used the bye week to fire their head coach and promote the coordinator of a defense that's allowing 412 yards per game.  

Both the Lions and Rams are actually among the NFL's five most generous teams in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs, RBs, WRs, and DEFs. So across the board -- at all positions and without regard to their opponents -- Detroit and St. Louis have been appeasers. 

Further down on the list, Seattle and Kansas City deserve special recognition for getting absolutely pummeled by the Giants and Panthers in Week 5. At this point, if you're going to make a significant move on the list below, it will take a 44-6 or 34-0 mauling.

Here are the worst of the worst in the NFL, arranged by points allowed per game:

If you're looking specifically for teams that yield lots of rushing and/or passing yards, please continue past the jump.

Sundays are all about collecting stories and stats, angles and observations. Mondays are about clearing the notebook. Here are some themes that had my attention during Week 5 of the elegant violence.

Backfields are more crowded than ever in today's NFL, but let's make sure we spin this the right way. Our decisions become harder to make, sure, but there's still production out there for the shrewd owner to grab.

Check out the scoring from Y! games Sunday and you'll get the lay of the land - 12 of the top 30 backs are No. 2 options (or at least perceived to be the less-desirable runner in the backfield). And while it may seem like a crap shoot gambling on secondary backs as fantasy plays, there are some rules of thumb to follow:

• Target secondary backs from teams that are heavily favored. You can be confident that the running game won't be junked by the game situation, and a big lead generally funnels to lots of running late (that's where the easier yards are; defensive fronts get tired and often pack it in at the end of the day). Week 5 hits: Felix Jones (albeit his touchdown came early), DeAngelo Williams (technically the starter but treated like a No. 2 in the fantasy community). Derrick Ward didn't have a gigantic day but he will often apply to this principle.

• Target secondary backs who are working behind a nicked-up or short-leash starter. This gets you to Le'Ron McClain in Baltimore (Willis McGahee is nicked), or Sammy Morris in New England (the Patriots clearly don't trust Laurence Maroney).

• Consider runners used on third down and at the goal line. Tim Hightower is always a viable play because of this (more on him in a minute), and look how much the Patriots seem to trust Kevin Faulk. McClain applies, again. Deuce McAllister figures to see tough sledding tonight, but he might be worth a shot in other matchups.

• Consider players who can catch the ball. This becomes even more important if your spec play is on a team not expected to win. Warrick Dunn steals some value here. Faulk's utility applies in New England.

A dose of very bad news here from the Philadelphia Inquirer's Eagles blog:

Brian Westbrook played most of Sunday's loss against the Washington Redskins with two fractured ribs, Eagles coach Andy Reid revealed at his news conference this morning.

Reid said did not guarantee that his star running back would be able to play Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.

You know the drill here. The 68 percent owned Correll Buckhalter would be the add, if he's still available in your league.

Westbrook actually ran for a touchdown after suffering the injury, so we can't completely rule him out. The Eagles have a bye after traveling to San Francisco. If it weren't for this injury, Westbrook might have been atop the Week 6 running back ranks. Instead, we're looking at another last-minute decision. 

If you're in a position to look further ahead, Westbrook is obviously a good buy right now. The Eagles face Arizona and Cleveland late in the year, in Weeks 13 and 15. 

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Photo via AP 

The Denver Post reports today that receiver Eddie Royal and tight end Tony Scheffler "will likely miss at least next week's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars."

Royal sprained his left ankle on a punt return, and Scheffler has a strained groin. Scheffler's injury "could be more serious," according to the Post.

Fantasy owners should plan as if both players will miss the Jacksonville and New England games. Hopefully, Royal and Scheffler will return after the bye week to face the string of inviting defenses on Denver's schedule: Miami, at Cleveland, at Atlanta, Oakland, at NY Jets, Kansas City. 

The short-term replacements for the Broncos are Darrell Garciaparra Jackson at receiver, and Nate Jackson at tight end. A calf injury has limited D-Jax to just one reception this season, although that catch was a 48-yard TD. Nate Jackson can't match Scheffler as a receiving threat.

Brandon Stokley's fantasy value gets a significant bump, too. The 32-year-old slot machine caught six passes for 52 yards and one TD in Week 5.

This post-game nugget from the Detroit Free Press says a lot about the Lions defense:

Like many NFL players, (Kyle) Orton loves playing the Lions.

“Yeah, I do for some reason,” he acknowledged.

Hmm. Can't imagine what that reason might be.

Maybe it's the fact that in three of Detroit's four losses, their opponents have gained over 400 total yards. Or perhaps it's the fact that they've allowed at least 31 points in every game.

They're really pretty bad, these Lions. Kyle Orton passed for 334 yards and two touchdowns against them, despite the fact that Brandon Lloyd (knee) was out.

Many of you will add Orton based on today's performance, but the real lesson here is that anyone -- anyone -- is a good fantasy play against the Lions defense. You're starting Gus Frerotte against them in Week 6, then you're playing Matt Schaub against Detroit in Week 7. And you're staring Jason Campbell in Week 8. And Orton again in Week 9.

Basically, you're taking advantage of the Lions until they prove that they can offer at least some resistance, to someone, somewhere.

FOURTH QUARTER

• Immediately after we proclaimed that the Cowboys-Bengals game was a pathetic mismatch (see below), Dallas fell into a sleepy, disinterested haze. Naturally. Terrell Owens woke everyone up when he turned an innocent crossing route into a 57-yard TD.

Felix Jones was spectacular today, rushing for 96 yards on only nine carries, and embarrassing several would-be tacklers.

• OK, which fact surprises you more: A) the Broncos scoring only 16 points, or B) the Broncos actually winning despite scoring only 16?

Each week the Noise will guide desperate, deep-thinking owners into the dark corners of the waiver wire to mine a last-minute diamond. Turn on your helmet light and pack a pickaxe. We're digging for drop-jaw surprises owned in less than 10 percent or started in less than five percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Most games David Martin is Miami's My Little Pony when compared to Italian Stallion, Anthony Fasano.

But this week, San Diego's horrendous short-field defense will turn the plastic-hoofed foal into a beer-hauling Clydesdale. The Chargers have surrendered 7.3 receptions, 88.5 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game to tight ends, far and away the most points yielded to monolithic targets in fantasy. Head coach Norv Turner has been amazed by his defense's wizardry. Per the Orlando Sentinel: 

"Tight ends have had big days against us and that's something we're working on, just continuing to get our guys to understand where we're being threatened, where we're being attacked and how we have to defend it."

Splitting time between Green Bay and Miami, Martin has been nothing more than a role player in his uneventful eight-year career. Last year in his best statistical season, he caught just 34 passes for 303 yards and two scores.

However, under Tony Sparano's direction, Martin is on pace to obliterate his previous career highs. Targeted on average 4.3 times per game, he's netted 2.7 receptions and 35.3 yards per game. He's also scored once. Shockingly, his 5.5 fantasy points per game output, ranked tenth at his position, is higher than notable names Chris Cooley, Greg Olsen, and steaming feces pile Vernon Davis. Martin, who sees plenty of action opposite Fasano in Miami's two-tight end schemes, has been thrilled with his early results. From the Palm Beach Post:

"I think this year I'm doing a lot of different things that complement my ability. That's the difference from then to now."

A solid route-runner with surprising agility, the 6-foot-4, 265-pound receiving titan will be targeted by Chad Pennington roughly 5-8 times this week. Because Pennington has distributed the football with marginal success downfield, he'll take advantage of San Diego's defensive inefficiencies by attacking the middle of the field, which means Martin and Fasano will be squared in the crosshairs often.

For Kellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, and Zach Miller owners hoping to discover bye week  wire gold, the eight-percent owned (five-percent started) Martin appears to have a shiny luster. 

Week 5 Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Previous Shockers: Hank Baskett (2-102-TD), Brian Griese (160-1-0), James Jones (1 drop, injury), Lance Moore (7-101-2TDs)

Who is your Week 5 Shocker Special? Post your selection with projection in the comments section below.

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Image courtesy of US Presswire

Fantasy filibuster isn't limited to the NFL side of things; our three resident hockey gurus had plenty to disagree on as the Y! Fantasy Hockey Ranks hit the ice this week. We never like to see a rogue opinion brilliant evaluation go unexplained, and with that, here's Matt Romig, Scott Pianowski and Janet Eagleson to outline the method behind their respective madness. Feel free to pick your own sides in the comments, or discuss other rankings of note.

Marc Savard (Romig Rank: 9; others: 13, 18)

If you simply let the system crunch the numbers using the Yahoo! default league settings, Savard was the 14th ranked center last season and eighth the year before. Missing eight games last year didn't help his ranking. Neither did all the lost man hours Boston suffered up and down its roster. So from that perspective, I really don't see the need to justify the ranking. But since you asked, Savard is simply the most underrated passer in the NHL. Over the past three seasons he has 206 assists in 238 games. Even without 30-goal potential - pencil him in for 20 and be happy - he's at well over a point-per-game pace over that span. He's also an underappreciated source of penalty minutes, logging 424 PIM over his last 340 games. Savard emerged in Atlanta and has been on four teams in eight seasons. Maybe that's why he's under the radar. Whatever the reason, let's give this playmaker some respect.

Patrick Sharp (Eagleson did not rank; others: 12, 19)

This could be a miscue on my part but there's just something in my gut that says Sharp isn't going to repeat his glorious goal production of the last couple years. He's responsible defensively and will kill penalties. But if Martin Havlat stays healthy (and that's a big IF), Sharp's time on the first power-play unit will disappear. And given the appearance of the Hawks' top two lines, there's a chance the team could move him away from Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in an attempt to give a more veteran presence to line two - especially if rookie David Bolland ends up centering that line. Sharp is a passenger, not a driver. And if his chauffer isn't Toews, he's out thumbing a ride. Like I said, it's all speculation. But when my spidey sense goes off, I need to pay attention.

Every Friday during the NFL season, we'll review the Yahoo! weekly position ranks. If an expert breaks from the herd on a particular player, they'll be asked to show their work. You're encouraged to discuss the wisdom or lunacy of these opinions in comments.

Marshawn Lynch, argument No. 1 (Pianowski's rank 3, Yahoo! composite rank 10).

Lynch is about as safe as it gets at the running back position this year, and that equals "every week start" no matter the format. He's collected 20 or more touches every Sunday; he's already scored four times; he's becoming more dynamic as a receiver (7-55 the last two weeks); and he's been a double-digit point grabber in Y! fantasy for three games out of four. In a crazy world of backfield platoons and inconsistent production, what's not to like from that resume?

Arizona's front seven has some pretty stats of its own through a month of play, but I'm not confident the reality matches the spreadsheet (the Niners hardly had the ball in Week 1; the Dolphins were pathetic in all areas a week later; old man Thomas Jones doesn't have any burst left). Clinton Portis got 87 total yards and a touchdown against the Redbirds in Week 3, and I consider that the floor for Lynch in this spot.

Marshawn Lynch, argument No. 2 (Evans' rank 22, Yahoo! composite rank...still 10).

In terms of appearance, not fantasy upside, Beast Mode is positively frightening. His looks alone can turn defenders into stone. However, Arizona will be wearing blinders. The Cards have excelled defensively in the trenches. Against a couple of respectable rushing offenses (San Fran, Miami, Washington and the Jets), the Cards have surrendered just 3.5 yards per carry and no 100-yard rushers. Lynch has averaged a mediocre 3.5 yards per carry this year. That, combined with Buffalo’s long trip west, means Lynch will be more hamster than Beast in Week 5.