Lightweight picture coming into focus

LAS VEGAS – It’s almost too simple, too obvious.

If you have been around boxing for more than, oh, two weeks, you know that, somehow, someway, they’re going to mess this up.

By Sunday morning, five of the six best lightweights in the world will have fought in a one-week span. Juan Diaz already came through his fight, routing Michael Katsidis in Houston (though what was judge Glen Hamada thinking with that score in favor of Katsidis?). On Saturday at the MGM Grand, Joel Casamayor will defend his Ring Magazine belt against Juan Manuel Marquez.

At roughly the same time in Biloxi, Miss., WBA-WBO-IBF champion Nate Campbell will put belts on the line against unbeaten Joan Guzman. Those five men, along with Manny Pacquiao, are the best 135-pounders in the world.

In nearly one fell swoop, a public which is frequently puzzled by who holds what belt and who really should be regarded as the champion of champions will have much of the mess clarified for it.

“All we have to do is put on a little tournament,” says Don King, who promotes Campbell.

“Let them decide where they should decide, with their hands in the ring. Ain’t no need for anybody to talk and boast about what they can do. Just shut up and sign the paper and get in there and fight and prove it.”

King loves tournaments. If he’s not putting one on every decade or so, he’s calling for one. But this time, King has an important ally: Oscar De La Hoya, the president of Golden Boy Promotions and the promoter of Marquez, Casamayor and Diaz.

De La Hoya also wants to see a tournament and insists he’d be willing to pair any of his fighters against anyone else who is fighting on Saturday.

“To have the best champion, you have to fight everybody,” De La Hoya said. “There’s no way of telling who is the best. Just because Casamayor beat Katsidis or Diaz beat Katsidis, now you have to fight the best. Who’s left? Obviously, it’s very difficult to stage a tournament, but we’re going to wait for the winners on Saturday and take it from there.

“We would put anybody against Campbell. Absolutely. If it’s to come out with the best lightweight champion of the world, of course we would. It’s best for the sport.”

But you should know by now that if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. And the chances of this working out neatly are probably slightly above nil.

The obvious probably is that the best of the bunch is committed to fighting at welterweight.

Pacquiao, the top-rated fighter in the Yahoo! Sports rankings, will meet De La Hoya in a ballyhooed welterweight bout on Dec. 6. Without Pacquiao, the winner of the tournament simply emerges as the logical challenger for the top spot.

Much of this will ride on what the result of the De La Hoya-Pacquiao fight. If Pacquiao wins, he’d likely try to fight Ricky Hatton, assuming Hatton gets past Paulie Malignaggi on Nov. 22.

And since Pacquiao has given hints that a retirement is imminent, it’s hardly out of the question that he’s fought his last lightweight bout.

The bigger issue will be getting De La Hoya, King and Pacquiao promoter Bob Arum to agree to work together to make the fights. These are three men with egos bigger than the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. It might be easier to reach a Middle East peace accord than to have those three come to terms.

If Guzman wins, that would push King out of the process, since Guzman is promoted by Sycuan Ringside Promotions, but even then, many hurdles would remain.

Assuming the favorites win on Saturday – Marquez is a 4-1 choice over Casamayor and Guzman is a 2-1 pick over Campbell – the fighters would likely be seeded with Pacquiao first, Marquez second, Diaz third and Guzman fourth.

That would mean that if Arum were to agree to put Pacquiao into such an event at all, he’d have to face Guzman first and then meet the Marquez-Diaz winner down the road.

With Marquez-Campbell winning, the seeding would be Pacquiao, Marquez, Campbell and Diaz. With Casamayor-Campbell, it would be Pacquiao, Campbell, Diaz and Casamayor. If it’s Casamayor and Guzman who survive on Saturday, it would then be Pacquiao, Diaz, Guzman and Casamayor.

Without Marquez winning and being alive in the tournament, it’s hard to understand how Arum would commit Pacquiao. Without a prospect of a third fight between them (Pacquiao holds a 1-0-1 edge in a pair of sensational fights), Arum would likely look elsewhere.

Back-to-back fights for Pacquiao against two from among Casamayor, Diaz, Guzman or Campbell would likely do little to interest Arum.

So, given that Pacquiao is unlikely to participate, De La Hoya needs to make it one of his company’s top priorities to make certain that Diaz and the Marquez-Casamayor winner fights the Guzman-Campbell winner.

That scenario would not definitively produce the best lightweight – most people will still recognize Pacquiao – but at least it would establish one man as the heir apparent.

In boxing, that’s about as good as it gets.