PARIS – After winning her first WTA Tour event in Nürnberg, Germany the week before the French Open, Canada's Eugenie Bouchard came into the second Grand Slam tournament of the season ranked a career high No. 16.
Some 10 days later, her semi-final clash with superstar Maria Sharapova will be a winner-take-all fight for the top 10.
If Bouchard can win, she'll be there for the first time, slotting in at No. 8. And by winning, she would push Sharapova, the multiple Grand-Slam-winning former No. 1, out of the top 10. If Bouchard wins the French Open title, she would check in at No. 6 in the world when the new rankings list comes out Monday.
On the men's side, Canadian Milos Raonic isn't getting the same sort of mileage out of his quarter-final effort.
Raonic came in ranked No. 9. Despite getting to the final eight, he will remain at No. 9. And if longshot Ernests Gulbis wins it all, Raonic would actually DROP a spot to No. 10. With his effort so far, Gulbis will enter the top 10 for the first time in his career.
Down at No. 8 coming in, Murray will move to No. 5 with his semi-final effort. If he somehow manages to defeat Rafael Nadal in the semifinals, he would squeeze past Roger Federer and into the No. 4 spot. If he shocked the world and won the French Open, he would jump over another Swiss, Stan Wawrinka, and be back in the No. 3 spot he got quite comfortable in for a long period before his back surgery last fall.
Monfils should move up eight spots, and be back in the top 20. By making the women's quarterfinals, Spain's Garbiñe Muguruza will move into the top 30 (and she's still in the doubles.) Croatia's Ajla Tomljanovic, who made the round of 16, will move up 20 spots and end up just outside the top 50.
Kiki Bertens of the Netherlands, who qualified and made the fourth round, will move up nearly 60 spots and jump back into the top 100 as will French wild-card Pauline Parmentier, who will make a 50-spot leap after reaching the fourth round.
At the top of the men's game, the math is fairly simple. If Nadal wants to remain No. 1, he has to win his ninth French Open title. No other combination of wins and losses involving current No. 2 Novak Djokovic will change that.