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What's at stake in United States vs. Mexico at the Rose Bowl

PASADENA, Calif. – If the road to the World Cup starts in St. Louis in November, then the path to succeeding on Russian soil in 2018 splays out before the United States men's national team here on Saturday, amid the 92,542 seats packed tightly into the steep banks of the old Rose Bowl.

[FC Yahoo: Is Mexico feeling the heat to beat rival U.S.?]

Next month, the U.S. will take the first step on a two-year trajectory towards Russia when it faces Saint Vincent and the Grenadines at Busch Stadium, seeking a once-unimaginable eighth straight World Cup berth. But on Saturday, the Americans will enter a one-game playoff with arch-rivals Mexico for a spot at the 2017 Confederations Cup.

And this matters a great deal more than you might think.

[FC Yahoo: Klinsmann chooses experience over youth for U.S. roster]

Certainly, there are the bragging rights on offer to the winner of this old rivalry – buttressed by perpetual geopolitical tensions and, before that, the violent jostling for territory. Those are available only in the rare competitive matchup. And so this game has sold out, even though the partisans will be charged $40 for parking alone.

The respective federations have hyped the newly conceived CONCACAF Cup, pitting the last two Gold Cup winners against each other, for all it's worth. Mostly, they have stoked the fires on social media. The Federacion Mexicana de Futbol Asociacion went with the #elfutbolesnuestro hashtagsoccer is ours – playing to many Mexicans' belief that being better at soccer than the Americans is their birthright. Certainly, in 64 matchups since 1934, El Tri has taken 32 wins to the Americans' 18, but then the USA hasn't lost to Mexico in more than four years, winning three times and tying three more since.

[Yahoo Deportes: Las razones por las que México sigue siendo superior a Estados Unidos]

U.S. Soccer responded with #dosacerotwo to zero – a reference to the score in eight American wins dating back to 2000, which the federation recently sought to trademark. The last four World Cup qualifiers between the two on American soil ended 2-0, as did their lone meeting at a World Cup in 2002. So too did friendlies in 2000, 2007 and the last time they met in April.

There have been hype videos, like the brilliant one by TV Azteca that turned U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump's anti-Mexican platform back on the Americans.

"I've been on the right end a few times – the wrong end, once or twice" said U.S. captain Michael Bradley. "These are special games. You take a moment in weeks like this and kind of take it all in. There will come a day when I'm not playing anymore and you'll miss this."

Painfully to Mexico, the U.S. didn't just win convincingly in two of their last three head-to-head games, but it also rescued its flagging World Cup qualifying campaign in late 2013. Had the U.S. not equalized late against Panama, the Mexicans would have been eliminated. Instead, they qualified through a playoff with New Zealand and subsequently showed well at the big tournament in Brazil.

But then again, Mexico took the Americans' continental crown in July, when the Yanks unexpectedly stumbled against Jamaica in the semifinals of the Gold Cup, whereupon El Tri defeated the Reggae Boyz in the final. Which brings us to Saturday, when the two will play for a spot at the Confederations Cup in Russia two summers from now.

That tournament means different things to different countries. To many major soccer powers, it isn't a particularly big deal. It's seen for what it essentially is: a dry run for the host country of the World Cup a year out, a chance for it to put on a smaller competitive tournament and test its systems and infrastructure. For a country like the U.S., however, which has yet to make its mark on the world stage in the modern era, participation would be valuable.

The Confederations Cup is an opportunity to gain familiarity ahead of the World Cup. After the Americans played at the 2009 edition, they had a significant advantage during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. They had already played in several of the stadiums, and they knew the hotels and practice fields. In an unpredictable tournament like the World Cup, which sends teams home with a single loss, it's a previous opportunity to mitigate some of the many variables.

A failure to qualify would hurt that much more if the planned 2016 Copa America Centenario – a one-off tournament of the entire hemisphere to celebrate the hundredth anniversary of South America's championship – is called off in the wake of several bribery scandals. The U.S. would then be deprived of two competitive tournaments, two big tests against strong teams other than the familiar regional foes.

Mexico beat the U.S. at the Rose Bowl in the 2011 Gold Cup final. (Getty Images)
Mexico beat the U.S. at the Rose Bowl in the 2011 Gold Cup final. (Getty Images)

But if the Americans hope to go to Russia twice, they'll first have banish their last memories of the Rose Bowl. That venue was the scene of the 2011 Gold Cup final, when the U.S. ran out to a quick 2-0 lead against Mexico before being humiliated 4-2. When the award ceremony was held in Spanish, frustrated U.S. goalkeeper Tim Howard uncharacteristically unloosed an invective-laden rant at the press about it, calling it a "f------ disgrace." That day, some U.S. fans felt threatened amid the overwhelmingly pro-Mexican crowd as the mood grew tense and dark toward the end of the game.

"We've already exorcised the ghosts," Howard said on Friday. "There have been six games in between."

That last appearance in the Rose Bowl was also the last time the U.S. lost to Mexico. And a few weeks after the game, on the eve of a friendly rematch with Mexico, head coach Bob Bradley was dismissed and replaced by Jurgen Klinsmann.

In six games against Mexico, Klinsmann has never lost – he was also undefeated against El Tri in four games as a Germany player and manager. "There are no reasons for that," Klinsmann said. "Every time you have another clash you start at zero-zero again and you have no idea how it will end."

And this game catches him at the unquestionable low point of his tenure. In spite of the Gold Cup debacle, the Americans are a solid 9-4-3 in 2015, including stirring yet flattered friendly wins over the Netherlands and world champions Germany. Yet they have looked insipid and uninspired ever since the World Cup – a 4-1 friendly loss to Brazil in September was particularly disheveling – calling into question whether Klinsmann's promised stylistic revolution will ever come off.

[FC Yahoo: Donovan correct to say Klinsmann should go if U.S. loses to Mexico]

"Around the world, if a player plays poorly and a player has a bad string of results they get dropped from the team," Donovan, who was unexpectedly left off the World Cup team by Klinsmann, told ESPN. "Jurgen said many times he wants our players to feel pressure. Well, the same holds true for the coach and so we had a very poor summer with bad results in the Gold Cup. The last game against Brazil was probably the worst game I've seen them play under Jurgen. The reality is that now, anywhere else in the world, if this coach had those results, and they lose this game against Mexico, they'd be fired. I think if Jurgen wants to hold all the players to that standard, then he has to be held to that standard too."

Klinsmann, typically, was unruffled by Donovan's comments. "It's totally cool with me," he responded on Friday. "I have no problem at all with that."

U.S. Soccer president Sunil Gulati has already said that Klinsmann's job is safe regardless of the result on Saturday. For now, the coach retains his employers' confidence. Not to mention a multi-million dollar contract through 2018.

Neither team is at full strength. The U.S. is missing several regulars, like defender John Brooks and forward Aron Johannsson, who are injured, and midfielder Alejandro Bedoya, who is sick. El Tri, too, is suffering through a rash of injuries. Forward Giovani Dos Santos and the essential holding midfielder Jose Juan Vazquez are out. Midfielder Andres Guardado and defender Rafa Marquez are hobbled.

But in the midst of swelling criticism, Klinsmann may get a reprieve from the turmoil in Mexico's program. Manager Miguel Herrera, who dragged Mexico into the World Cup through the back door and performed well in Brazil, punched a reporter and was fired days after winning the Gold Cup. The team is now run by an interim head coach, Tuca Ferretti, as it awaits the appointment of a permanent successor (Juan Carlos Osorio claims he has accepted the job). Under Ferretti, Mexico looked tentative in a 3-3 tie with Trinidad and Tobago last month but then gave a very promising account of itself in a 2-2 tie with Argentina in which it gave up two goals in the last five minutes.

And so two teams in disarray will do battle for a berth that could turn either program around. Southern California is about as far as you can get from Russia. But a triumph on Saturday, for either team, in whatever form it may come, will bring the victors a lot closer.

Leander Schaerlaeckens is a soccer columnist for Yahoo Sports. Follow him on Twitter @LeanderAlphabet.