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Why Barcelona will not win La Liga

Why Barcelona will not win La Liga

BARCELONA – Barcelona will not win La Liga for the 2015-16 season.

The goal of matching the 2009 side with a sextuple went up in flames against Athletic Bilbao in the Spanish Super Cup, and a new reality set in. Sure, this team has already claimed four trophies in 2015 – La Liga, Copa del Rey, UEFA Champions League and UEFA Super Cup – and a fifth title is likely on its way in the form of the Club World Cup. But this squad is not built to win the Spanish league in 2015-16. At some point, Barcelona manager Luis Enrique will need to choose between the Champions League and La Liga, and only then will the true goals of this team become apparent.

The 2015-16 Barcelona squad is designed to become the first side to win back-to-back European titles in the Champions League era, and frankly, it's still a good bet to do so. Two 1-0 league wins may not properly reflect the reality that Barcelona will struggle to keep pace domestically with the FIFA transfer ban forcing this unfortunate truth. If not for the ban, Barcelona could have had a legitimate chance at repeating the European treble, which could have put the current side a notch higher than any other team in the modern era.

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Instead, the departures of Xavi Hernandez and Pedro Rodriguez forced Barcelona into a corner. Xavi appeared in 31 of 38 La Liga matches during the 2014-15 season, and his two goals and eight assists meant less than his ability to serve as a half-hour or one-hour stand-in for Andres Iniesta. Similarly, Pedro appeared in 35 of 38 La Liga games but served as a trustworthy player while Luis Suarez completed his suspension for biting and when Neymar went down with injury or suspension. Even when Barcelona had a full armory to choose from, Pedro helped keep the attack from being entirely spent as a regular substitute.

Already in 2015-16, Neymar has missed time with the mumps, and his fragile frame and history of odd disorders (anemia, anyone?) hints that the Brazilian will likely miss time for one reason or another at some stage. Suarez could do literally anything and be suspended immediately without warning.

The fitness of 31-year-old captain Andres Iniesta is a concern. (Reuters)
The fitness of 31-year-old captain Andres Iniesta is a concern. (Reuters)

Backup Rafinha has progressed to a point that he can assist Barcelona’s midfield, but he still cannot supplant Iniesta the way Xavi did a season ago. Frankly, no one on the current Barcelona squad can, and the same is true when Munir comes in for Neymar, Suarez or Lionel Messi – heaven forbid on that last one. At 31 years old, Iniesta cannot possibly play 90 minutes in every match, another reason why Enrique will need to choose between La Liga and the Champions League.

A quick glance at Barcelona's fixture list tells the truth of the league trophy leaving Catalonia for 2015-16. Only four days before playing away to AS Roma in the Champions League, Barcelona will face Atletico Madrid at the Vicente Calderon, and both those matches come on the heels of an international break where Messi and Neymar will globetrot with Argentina and Brazil, respectively.

With domestic away fixtures at Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Valencia and Sevilla all coming before reinforcements can relieve the squad added to a congested fixture schedule due to the Club World Cup, Barcelona will surely stammer and stumble. When pressed into a corner, Enrique will choose the Champions League over La Liga because Barcelona has won La Liga twice in a row before. No team has repeated as Champions League winners, and the last team to win the European Cup twice came over a quarter century ago: AC Milan in 1989 and 1990.

With the dream of the sextuple gone, the best way this team can hit the mark and make its claims against the all-time greatest teams is to set a new standard in Europe. With new summer signings Arda Turan and Aleix Vidal available to play in the Champions League in the knockout rounds, the architects of the 2015-16 team have set their sights on strengthening with Europe in mind. Of course, Barcelona could beat the odds and succeed on all fronts, but that would likely have more to do with the two Madrid sides stumbling.

Real Madrid’s 0-0 draw away to Sporting Gijon in the La Liga opener masked the fact that Los Blancos outshot their hosts 27-6. Considering the quality taking those shots, those types of numbers hinted that Madrid could and should have won the game. A 5-0 victory over Real Betis on Saturday reinforced that Madrid should not be anywhere near crisis mode. That said, even if Rafa Benitez somehow mucks up the season, Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone should have enough fortitude to get it right. At least one of the two Madrid sides should manage to top Barcelona considering the depths of the three squads (Jackson Martinez at Atleti, anyone?).

Could Barcelona still win La Liga and even repeat a European treble? Of course. But Barcelona winning the league would beat the odds this season and, frankly, it just isn’t a good bet. If Barcelona is still top of the table in January, then Enrique may be a far greater manager than anyone figured. Now, though, is not the time to go all-in on Barcelona.

Shahan Ahmed is a soccer columnist for Yahoo Sports. Follow Shahan on Twitter: @ShahanLA and @perfectpass