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Chris Chase

Phelps Watch: 400-meter individual medley final

Fourth-Place Medal

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Event: 400-meter individual medley

When 10:03 p.m. ET

Possible spoilers: Ryan Lochte, U.S.A.; Laszlo Cseh, Hungary

Analysis: In prelims, Michael Phelps set an Olympic record in this event, despite the fact that he presumably didn't exert maximum effort (and wasn't wearing Speedo's LZR suit). That has to be disconcerting for both Lochte and Cseh, both of whom were thought to have a reasonable chance at unseating Phelps in one of his signature events.

Phelps hasn't lost a 400 IM in nearly six years, but that streak was nearly ended by Lochte at the Olympic Trials . He was virtually tied with Phelps at the 300-meter mark, but couldn't keep up in the freestyle. Lochte will likely need at least a one second lead after the breaststroke to pull the upset. Don't expect it to happen though. Phelps looks primed to start his Olympics off with a gold medal and a new world record.

Prediction: 1) Phelps (WR time); 2) Lochte; 3) Cseh

Other Finals predictions: Men's 400 freestyle: Lin Zhang (CHI); Women's 400 IM: Katie Hoff (USA); Women's 4x100 freestlye relay: Netherlands

Photo via Getty Images

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