Pros: In 2016, it will have been 20 years since the United States has hosted an Olympics... American broadcast rights for the Olympics are up after 2012; the IOC will need an American-based Games on the slate to drive up bidding between NBC and ABC/ESPN.
Cons: The Euro-Centric IOC has a grudge against the U.S. (see: removal of baseball and softball from Olympic schedule).
Pros: The Spanish capital is a lovely, vibrant, cosmpolitan city...
Cons: ...But they shouldn't get too excited about the 2016 Olympics. Madrid's bid faces two big problems... Barcelona hosted the Games in 1992. A 24-year gap is fine for a large country like the United States, but two in Spain in a quarter-century is a bit much... London will have hosted the Games in 2012. It's tough to imagine the IOC staging consecutive Summer Olympics within 1,000 miles of each other.
Rio de Janiero: 3-2
Pros: Would be the first South American city to host an Olympics... Is hosting the 2014 World Cup...
Cons: Can Brazil afford to host a Games?... Is Rio ready for the major international stage?... Is the rampant crime and inept police department too much for the IOC?... My buddy Klinny was recently in Brazil's second most-populous city. He reports:
Although I routinely swallowed my passport for safekeeping during short romps through the city, Rio de Janeiro is certainly capable of providing a safe-enough environment for a summer Olympics. Consider that despite Rio's reputation as a crime-ridden city, millions still flock there every year for Carnival.
Pros: Has hosted Olympics before... World's largest city... Olympics haven't been held in Japan since 1964.
Cons: Would the IOC go to Asia twice in eight years?
Prediction: It's tough to see Tokyo or Madrid getting the call in 2016; their time will come in 2020 or 2024. That leaves Chicago and Rio. If there wasn't a TV contract to be negotiated, I'd say the IOC would try and get the Games to South America, despite the myriad problems that would likely accompany such a decision. But with NBC and Disney likely to get in a bidding war for the rights to broadcast the first American Summer Olympics in two decades, expect the IOC to follow the money to Chicago.