NHL Fantasy Hockey: Why Mark Giordano is a stud, Matt Niskanen a dud
Dobber launched his fantasy hockey website DobberHockey back in 2005 and has been Puck Daddy's resident fantasy hockey 'expert' since 2009.
Every season as we draw closer to the quarter pole, I wander over to BehindtheNet.ca to take a look at some of the extreme PDO results. Any earlier in the season and the results are too volatile for my taste. The reality is they're too volatile now, but at least the stats are starting to settle down, which makes it easier to find some of the players who are over- or under-achieving.
The PDO is a very basic stat - a quick measurement of luck, more or less, but one that can draw your attention to certain players who warrant further investigation. Here are the notable players with PDO (and, generally speaking, On-Ice Sh%) numbers that are too high. Their current pace is probably not sustainable and if one were to play the odds they would "sell high" on these players at some point over the next month.
And on the flip side, here are some notable players with a lower PDO and in many cases a rather abysmal On-Ice Sh%. These guys should see a market correction over time.
Studs...
These fellas are wielding a hot stick. Take that into consideration when you go after them in trade talks...
Martin St. Louis, New York Rangers (9-6-3-9, minus-5, 4 PIM, 22 SOG, 4 PPPts) - At 39, St. Louis had poolies worried after starting the season with six points in 10 games. Not horrible, but a sign of decline by his standards. This latest run, silly plus/minus aside, sets our mind at ease. We call this extended longevity in production "pulling a Ray Whitney".
Mark Giordano, Calgary Flames (8-4-8-12, plus-3, 0 PIM, 18 SOG, 3 PPPts) - So now he's Erik Karlsson? Not buying it. But here is what I will buy - Giordano will top 60 points and make a strong case for the Norris Trophy. I'm on board with that. But this Paul Coffey stuff is too much to wrap my head around.
Johan Franzen, Detroit Red Wings (7-3-4-7, minus-3, 0 PIM, 20 SOG, 5 PPPts) - The soon-to-be 35-year-old has been holding steady at a points-per-game between 0.72 and 0.83 for six consecutive seasons. That's where Franzen will be again this year, the question is how many visits to the injury ward he'll have.
Duds...
Somebody wake these guys up – their fantasy owners are counting on them...
Logan Couture, San Jose Sharks (6-0-1-1, minus-3, 0 PIM, 14 SOG, 1 PPPts) - Couture has been a steady 65-point type of player over the last three years, but fantasy owners have been hoping for another gear. Can he take it to another level the way Joe Pavelski did last season? It certainly looked that way, until this latest skid.
Patrick Marleau, San Jose Sharks (5-0-0-0, 0 PIM, minus-2, 18 SOG, 0 PPPts) - As one would expect - Couture's linemates, Marleau and Tommy Wingels, haven't been doing any better.
Matt Niskanen, Washington Capitals (12-1-2-3, minus-2, 2 PIM, 22 SOG, 1 PPPts) - Still 77% owned. Talk about keeping the faith. Just one big year and fantasy owners remain loyal to a fault. Let's not forget that Niskanen's breakout season was a contract year and that he moved to a team that has two better power-play options on the blue line.
The Wire...
Mostly short-term grabs here, but as always some potential steals...
Nick Bjugstad, Florida Panthers (2-2-3-5, plus-4, 0 PIM, 6 SOG, 1 PPPts) - Bjugstad was woefully underperforming, but the market correction has begun and the Panthers have been playing great hockey since Vincent Trocheck was recalled. Trocheck has added another element to the offense that has helped several players, particularly Bjugstad.
Markus Granlund, Calgary Flames (2-1-3-4, plus-4, 2 PIM, 2 SOG) - The Flames are this year's Avalanche in that they defy what the possession stats say they should be doing, and continue to win. If Colorado can do that for an entire season, there is no reason why Calgary can't either. Granlund is a big part of this, as his 16:49 TOI indicates.
Zemgus Girgensons, Buffalo Sabres (3-3-1-4, plus-6, 0 PIM, 4 SOG) - Granted, Girgensons was plus-4 with two points against the Maple Leafs - a team that seems to be imploding right now. But he is the only regular on the Sabres who is a plus player and one of just three players to reach the big 10-points mark.
Brayden Schenn, Philadelphia Flyers (6-3-4-7, plus-5, 5 PIM, 13 SOG, 1 PPPts) - Despite being shut out Wednesday (along with the rest of his team), I really like this pick. He's been playing with the big guns, Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, and Wednesday he saw nearly 25 minutes of ice time. Still just 42% owned.
John Klingberg, Dallas Stars (2-0-3-3, minus-1, 2 PIM, 3 SOG) - Although the Stars have been a bit of a train wreck so far this season, there have been some lone bright spots. The top line has been one of the best lines in hockey, Ales Hemsky has improved his popcorn and drink serving skills in the press box, and Klingberg has emerged as one of the better rookie defensemen of the past several years. He's led the team in ice time twice now and has seen over 24 minutes in each of his last three games.
Alex Killorn, Tampa Bay Lightning (3-2-1-3, plus-2, 4 PIM, 10 SOG) - Now back on a line with Steven Stamkos, Killorn is turning things back around. Fantasy owners had been dropping him and his ownership was at just 4%. But now it should be going back up again.
Michael Hutchinson, Winnipeg Jets (3-0-1, 100 saves on last 103 shots faced) - Ondrej Pavelec has been good this year. But Hutchinson has been better. The Jets have tightened up defensively and it's make the goalies look good. But Pavelec is cooling off and Hutchinson is surging, so you could (and should) see more starts from the backup at least for the near future.
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