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What We Learned: How Sidney Crosby got his groove back

What We Learned: How Sidney Crosby got his groove back

There's a pretty simple way to break down the resurgence of Sidney Crosby that, on the surface, is very damning for former Pittsburgh Penguins coach Mike Johnston.

- Sidney Crosby's career average points per game before Johnston arrived: 1.4.

- Sidney Crosby's average points per game under Johnston: 0.98.

- Sidney Crosby's average points per game since Johnston left: 1.36

One of these things is very obviously not like the other, and you can see why every Penguins fan had been complaining about the offensive output for world's best player under Johnston. Less than a point a game is pretty clearly not what we would or perhaps should expect out of Sidney Crosby.

It also doesn't help that Crosby was only averaging about three shots per game under Johnston, as opposed to the almost 3.4 in his entire career prior, and 3.6 since. But obviously there's more to player performance over stretches of 100-plus games than the production of shots, goals, and points.

Now, I got under the hood on a lot of Crosby's numbers in the immediate wake of the Johnston firing and found that, all things considered, your old pal No. 87 performed more or less as well under Johnston as he did under Dan Bylsma. But this is a topic worth revisiting because of one simple fact: He's ripped the doors off the league under Mike Sullivan.

The fact that he's now top-10 in the league in scoring, a spot which was almost inconceivable just two months ago, is out of control. He's up to 30 points in 22 games under Sullivan, including 18 in his last 10.

It's kind of amazing how closely Crosby's numbers pre- and post-Johnston adhere to one another. A gap of 0.04 points per game is easily explainable as noise. But here's the thing: He only played 105 games under Johnston (though Johnston coached 110 in Pittsburgh overall) and you can very easily make the case that this admittedly rather long stretch was similarly just noise.

People would really, really like there to be a reason that explained the apparent decline of the greatest player of the last decade. The coaching issue is an easy one to pull, too. Crosby scored at a rate almost observed in the league before Johnston arrived. Crosby scored like a normal superstar under Johnston. And in the first 20-something games in the wake of Johnston's immediate departure, he's back to scoring at more or less the same superhuman rate.

In most sets of 110 games over his career, Crosby has been scoring somewhere between 130 and 140 points, so to come in at just 108 under Johnston is worrisome. But there was a fairly sharp decline in production even before Johnston came aboard. And under Johnston I think you can say a lot of his problems stemmed from one of the lowest shooting percentages of his career for a stretch of 110 games.

NHL
NHL

As you can see, that decline was already beginning in earnest well before Johnston came aboard. At this point we fundamentally understand that players do not necessarily have much personal control over their shooting percentage at any given time. If they did, Crosby would likely have continued to pop in goals at the same absurd rate as always — his career shooting percentage is ninth among active players — and no one would have had a bad word to say about his apparent decline.

But at the same time, we know that coaching can actually have an impact on shooting percentage at the team level. Darryl Sutter's Los Angeles Kings do seem to just carry a lower shooting percentage than the rest of the league and make it up in the sheer volume of attempts, shots, and chances they generate.

But I have to wonder: Is that the level of impact Mike Johnston would have on a team?

Again, I looked at the individual numbers for Crosby last time out and found that, yes, he is scoring a lot less at 5-on-5 than he once did, but that the number chances, shots and attempts he was generating didn't differ too severely from his later days under Bylsma.

The question quickly becomes whether this is a team-wide thing, and whether that would have a depressive effect on team shooting percentage.

NHL
NHL

I think most people would be surprised to see what the Penguins have done in the last two dozen or so games under Sullivan in terms of shooting percentage overall, but it's undeniable that the Pens have improved the “process” under each successive coach in some ways.

Johnston clearly adopted a more conservative style that might have impacted shot quality in a lot of ways.

After all, if his teams were generating 2.5 fewer high-quality chances per 60 minutes than they are under Sullivan, given that they're effectively using the same players, that's something worth exploring. It should also be noted, though, that Sullivan has coached just 22 games, one-fifth the number Johnston did. They're clearly getting better results, but how far does that stretch into the future? Tough to say for sure.

But the results right now are undeniable. When Crosby is on the ice, the Penguins attempt way more shots, allow far fewer, get much closer to the net for those attempts (plus-47.6 percent!!!) while stifling similar chances at the other end, get more shots on goal, concede fewer, score considerably more and get scored on slightly less.

The only other thing worth noting is that while there has been a substantial increase in shots per 60 while Crosby is on the ice (32.5 under Johnston, to 39.5 under Sullivan), he is also being a bit more deferential. He was credited just 24.9 percent of all shots on goal when he was on the ice with Johnston as his coach, and he's taking 22.2 percent now. One wonders if that came as a result of linemate changes — i.e. Crosby basically stopped playing with Pascal Dupuis — that made Crosby feel like he could do more by giving up the puck sometimes.

As a result of all this, Crosby's personal shooting percentage appears to have jumped from 8.9 percent to 14.6 percent after the coaching change. This despite the fact that his on-ice shooting percentage is only up to 8.8 percent from 8 percent in Johnston's tenure.

That high-danger scoring chance per 60 number is, I think, the big reason for the change in shots on goal, goals, and obviously shooting percentage. It balloons from a respectable but not great 12.4 (about what Nikita Kucherov has done this year, in the mid-60s in the league, which is still clear top-line performance) to 18.3. That would lead the league this year by a considerable margin.

To put that number into context: Crosby only averaged 13.8 high-danger chances per 60 minutes from 2007 to 2014, and that's the highest number in the NHL over that time. And even if we're talking about peak-production Sidney Crosby (2010-13), that number is still just 15.1 high-quality attempts per 60. That Crosby is now blowing even that number out of the water seems at least somewhat anomalous.

I just keep coming back to that 14.6 percent shooting number and I say, “He's hot right now and he was ice-cold before.” In his prime production years he was 15.9 percent across 119 games, which is out of control, but his career number under Bylsma was 14.2 percent across 479 games.

So if we're saying that there's not much of a difference in just about all individual offensive categories — apart from a substantial dip in high-danger chances around the time Bylsma left — were always holding steady with career norms under Johnston, and his shooting percentage under Sullivan is back to his career norm, and that players cannot control individual shooting percentage in any real way, then I think you just have to say he was very unlucky for 105 games.

No one likes to hear that, but it's true.

Remember those two seasons in which Alex Ovechkin scored just 70 goals (haha, “just”) in 157 games? What do you think his shooting percentage was? It was 10.4 percent.

That's down from 12.6 percent in all other seasons combined. It's a substantial drop-off, and one that lasted almost 160 games from the best goalscorer of almost any era.

Is it therefore conceivable that Crosby could have gone through an even greater slump in terms of individual shooting success over a shorter span? I would argue that the answer is yes, especially because his assists-per-game number last year was still second in the league (albeit also well down from career averages). The only difference is that he's not Russian, so no one felt comfortable chalking this up to steroids.

It is so, so wonderful to see Crosby scoring again, and a big part of that is the fact that Sullivan has the Penguins playing more offensive-minded hockey these days. But it's also tough to say that a long stretch of bad luck didn't play a huge role as well.

Mike Johnston wasn't a great NHL coach. But he also didn't strangle Crosby's production to the extent that most people in Pittsburgh would have you believe.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: That's six in a row for the Ducks, who are now third in the Pacific and appear unlikely to concede that spot. They're three up on Arizona and five up on Vancouver and eight up on Calgary and 10 up on Edmonton. So that's your top-three in the Pacific for the playoffs. Hey, wow.

Arizona Coyotes: Also, talent disparity.

Boston Bruins: Honestly the idea of trading Loui Eriksson is one the Bruins shouldn't even consider. He wants a $6 million AAV five or six years. If this is the return you can pull, just sign him for god's sake.

Buffalo Sabres: Okay maybe this isn't worth a penalty shot but if you don't see a penalty on the final play I can't imagine what sport you're watching. It's not hooking but he grabs two handfuls of jersey. Pretty self-explanatory.

Calgary Flames: For a brief period between Friday and Saturday night, the Flames were in a six-way tie for dead last in the league. Fortunately they beat the Canucks to close Hockey Day in Canada so now they're two points above the Battle of Kursk.

Carolina Hurricanes: Yeah it's only the Jets, but if Carolina can get its offense going for real, there's a legit chance they challenge for a playoff spot down the stretch. And boy is that a weird thing to say.

Chicago: Playing with Artemi Panarin and Patrick Kane really is good for the ol' bank account. Or would be if he weren't signed through 2021. Anisimov is now just four goals and 12 points below his career highs with almost 30 games to play. The question is really how he only has 18-14-32.

Colorado Avalanche: What stretch of games is Patrick Roy talking about here? “I could come with 1,500 excuses, but we're not playing well enough right now. We don't deserve to win those hockey games. . . We're making too many mistakes right now, a lot of giveaways." Hmm, “any of his tenure, you say? That sounds about right.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Wild Bill Karlsson had both Jackets goals against the Flames. Giving him six in 53 games. Tough to give up a pair to someone who had four in his previous 52.

Dallas Stars: I don't know that a bunch of Chicago fans being in your building is “even worse” than getting your teeth kicked in 5-1, but okay.

Detroit Red Wings: What do you mean “becoming?” Has been for a while, gang.

Edmonton Oilers: Uhhhhhhhhhhhhh?

Florida Panthers: Seems like a lot of teams are gonna run into Crosby-related trouble down the stretch.

Los Angeles Kings: I'm not sure Adrian Kempe is a future “elite talent” but he's playing well in the AHL for a 19-year-old. He's eighth in the AHL among U20s in points per game, which isn't bad or anything, because there are only 10 who even qualify, so he has to be good to be in the league. But yeah. He's probably gonna be good, not great.

Minnesota Wild: The Wild are just having a full-on collective nervous breakdown these days.

Montreal Canadiens: I think the key for lots of teams going forward will be “hope your depth can beat the Oilers” because you have to throw everything at Connor McDavid just to even think about stopping him.

Nashville Predators: Ryan Johansen, Calle Jarnkrok and James Neal have been playing real well together, but it looks like Johansen is the catalyst for anyone. He's up to 4-10-14 in 13 games since the trade.

New Jersey Devils: This is a really cool thing Marty Brodeur did to honor his late father.

New York Islanders: Travis Hamonic said that a lengthy delay due to an ice issue made it “tough to get any momentum going” in the third period. When it was already 4-0 Wings.

New York Rangers: I mean, I guess. But isn't this obvious?

Ottawa Senators: Erik Karlsson had four assists Saturday night and currently sits third in the league in total points. He's the only reason this team is even remotely competitive every night.

Philadelphia Flyers: You know player safety is a top priority in this league when you can sucker a guy and give him a concussion, and get zero games for it. Just incredible.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Hey so does Pittsburgh still hate Jaromir Jagr or no? Tough to tell any more. They shouldn't. Grow up, yinz.

San Jose Sharks: The Sharks lost on the road on Saturday. Only the eighth time they've done it in regulation all year. Bonkers.

St. Louis Blues: This is cool.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Interesting take here. Is it because he is sitting out after requesting a trade?

Toronto Maple Leafs: This is an interesting rumination from Joffrey Lupul, who seems to be aging out of being a serious NHLer rather quickly.

Vancouver Canucks: Please understand that this is a team which might still feel it is playoff-capable. Hoo buddy.

Washington Capitals: Here's goal No. 30 from Alex Ovechkin. That's a lot for it being Feb. 7.

Winnipeg Jets: But seriously just blow it up.

Play of the Weekend

This kid is gonna be fun to watch for the next decade and a half. He got a big ovation, on the road, for missing the net on a 1-on-2. Good lord.

Gold Star Award

Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand is dropped to the ice in front of Toronto Maple Leafs goalie James Reimer on a rough check during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Boston, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2016. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand is dropped to the ice in front of Toronto Maple Leafs goalie James Reimer on a rough check during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Boston, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2016. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Brad Marchand is the fourth-best left wing in the sport and has been for a while. Good to see everyone coming around.

Minus of the Weekend

(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Finally, Chicago gets an outdoor game. They've been ignored for so long.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Year

User “MiniBurke” is having trouble reading the market.

So Lightning get Kadri + 2016 3rd

Leafs get Rights to Stamkos + 1st

Signoff

Aww, raspberries.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)

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