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NHL Fantasy Hockey: Finding late round gems in your draft

NHL Fantasy Hockey: Finding late round gems in your draft

Dobber launched his fantasy hockey website DobberHockey back in 2005 and has been Puck Daddy's resident fantasy hockey 'expert' since 2009.

Yeah, winning or losing your league depends on your success rate with some of the sleepers you take in the later rounds blah blah blah. All sleeper articles say the same thing in the intro, so I'll forego that and get to the goods.

Here are my picks for the late round gems, 2014-15 edition. All players below have an average draft position (Yahoo!) of 147th overall or later and an average round drafted of 14 or later…

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(Average Pick, Average Round)

Defensemen

Dougie Hamilton, Boston Bruins (147.6, 14.0) - It's no secret that Hamilton's career is trending upward. Of course he's going to get better, Captain Obvious. But poolies don't know when the big jump will happen and so they're playing it safe and drafting him as if he's a 25-point, 40 PIM player. But you should be taking him in the 10th or 12th round because his plus/minus will be nuts again and he should flirt with 35 points and 150 shots. His ice time is rising with every game that he plays and with it will come the production.

Erik Johnson, Colorado Avalanche (152.6, 14.4) - Anyone who has followed me knows that right from when he was 19 or 20 I had him pegged as a slow developer, often reminding that Chris Pronger was 26 the first time he had more than 46 points in a season. Johnson is 26 right now and coming off of a 39-point campaign. The former first-overall pick has it figured out now and I say he builds on that. But even if he flatlines, how does a 40-point, 60-PIM player drop almost to the 15th round?

Radko Gudas, Tampa Bay Lightning (165.3, 14.5) - Shut the front door, seriously? The best PIM defenseman to own - one who has the ability to pop in 30 points at that - is lasting until the 14th round? Yes, selecting PIM guys in the later rounds is almost a fantasy-hockey tradition, but not when it's the top PIM defenseman in the league! And one of the few who can actually pick up a point or two! Take him 13th round, since it's clear that he's lasting that long, and then open a celebratory beer.

Andrej Sekera, Carolina Hurricanes (165.5, 14.9) - Looks like poolies aren't trusting our little one-hit wonder. But who is going to knock him off the power play, Ryan Murphy? Justin Faulk? John-Michael L-hahahaha I can't even finish that name. It ain't happening. Sekera had 44 points last season and is in the prime of his career. Trust me - and trust him.

Forwards

David Perron, Edmonton Oilers (155.8, 14.8) - I don't consider myself a big believer in Perron. I've never been high on him and I've never owned him (and you can probably guess that I've been in a ton of leagues). I don't think he can build too much on last year's 57 points and he definitely over-achieved with his 90 PIM. However, him sliding to the 14th or 15th round is as crazy as Tomas Kaberle back in the NHL. Perron is close to a lock for 55 to 60 points and 70-plus PIM. He's eligible for either wing position and offers power-play points and some potential. If it's the 15th round and he's still out there, you almost have to draft him.

Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues (166.9, 15.9) - How does this potential superstar slide past the seventh or eighth round? His production trajectory is heading upwards quickly and were it not for several injuries that have already happened in his young NHL career, we'd be talking about a proven 60-point player.

Antoine Roussel, Dallas Stars (169.4, 14.7) - Just four penalty minutes shy of the league lead and the only player among the top 13 PIM leaders to score more than eight goals. His 14 goals and 29 points in just his second NHL season indicates that he can be a 40-point player. His ice time increased as the season wore on (also a good sign) and he's one of the best possession players on his team despite getting very tough minutes. In my Fantasy Guide I have him flirting with 200 PIM once again, with 15 goals and 33 points. That's a sixth- or seventh-round pick in a lot of leagues.

Valeri Nichushkin, Dallas Stars (173.0, 15.7) - Nichushkin will be a star in his own right soon enough, but put this 19-year-old on a line with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn and forget about it. But if that doesn't happen, the "consolation prize" would be playing with Jason Spezza. Either way, he's getting a good centerman who can dish the puck. Mid-40s is the worst case here - if things work out the right way he could top 60.

Craig Smith, Nashville Predators (173.7, 15.1) - Smith rebounded last year with 52 points and was second on the Preds with 215 shots (50th in the NHL). Now the Nashville has a more offense-oriented coach and an upgrade in potential linemates, Smith should be safe for building on both of those numbers as well as his power-play points.

Patrik Elias, New Jersey Devils (180.1, 17.1) - Not bad for a 17th-round pick. Not only could Elias top 60 points, but if he's healthy he'll do just that. And if he's not, well that's what the IR is for. He has both C/LW eligibility, which is very handy in most formats. A steal in the 16th round if he falls into your lap there.

Goalies

Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes (166.4, 14.9) - I'm not a big backer of Ward's. In fact, I've probably been hard on him over the years and I truly believe that Anton Khudobin is stealing this No.1 job from him by Christmas. But if I take away my personal bias, as well as my stubborn hunch about Khudobin and just look at the facts, I see this - Ward is the No.1 goalie for Carolina and he's going to be paid over $13 million with what's left of his current contract. Given those facts, as well is the knowledge that he is getting drafted in the rounds where backup goalies get drafted, then you have to take him as your No.3 or No.4.

Martin Jones, Los Angeles Kings (166.7, 15.2) - Jones is a great No.4 goalie to have and well worth the roster spot he takes up. Starter Jonathan Quick is still recovering from wrist surgery and apparently "it's going to go right down to the wire" (GM Dean Lombardi) with regards to being ready to start the season. But there is also the possibility of a setback - and Quick has been known to have them. So it's worth keeping Jones for the first couple of months of the season in that off chance that he becomes one of the best goalies to own in fantasy hockey for a 15-game stretch.

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Ben Scrivens, Edmonton Oilers (179.2, 17.1) - Scrivens could be available in the bench rounds of your draft, which makes him a steal when you consider that there is a 50-50 chance that he becomes a starter for a team that finally seems ready to start winning some games. Not a bad third or fourth G to have on the bench. Not bad at all.

Follow Dobber on Twitter @DobberHockey for more fantasy hockey tidbits, or better yet pick up his 9th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide