Colorado Avalanche fight analytics stigma into playoff contention
The Colorado Avalanche players have faith in Patrick Roy. They trust in his system, even in the face of constant criticism about his perceived non-belief in puck possession.
Is this conviction misguided, or is there really something to Roy and his system with the Avalanche as an NHL coach?
His first year saw his team exceed expectations by winning the Central Division with 112 points. Last season saw a regression as the team missed the playoffs. It was the first time in Roy’s head coaching history between the NHL and Quebec Major Junior Hockey League he missed a postseason.
This year, the Avs have gained traction of late to vault into the wild card after a tough start. Colorado has 58 points, three ahead of the Minnesota Wild for the final postseason spot in the West.
“We have our systems in place that we believe in and Patrick believes in,” captain Gabriel Landeskog said. “Absolutely you can say we rally around him and his philosophy. “
The Avs have said in the past that they don’t focus on analytics, and Roy sounded confused when discussing Corsi earlier in the year.
In Roy’s first year the Avalanche finished with the sixth-worst 5-on-5 CF% in the NHL according to War on Ice at 46.9 percent. 2014-15 the Avs were at 43.2 percent, 29th in the NHL. This season they rank last at 43.4 percent. These markers show the other team holds onto the puck more against the Avalanche while 5-on-5.
But for the second time in three years under Roy, the Avs are challenging for a playoff spot. From December onward, the Avs are 18-10-3. Colorado lost their last three games to start the month of February, which slowed down a stretch where they won five of six games.
“If you’re playing a certain system, and I’m not saying they’re playing a dump and chase kind of system or not, but if you’re playing a certain system that’s not going to give you good numbers of puck possession or whatever people want to judge you, I guess you don’t really care about it, because you’re doing the system the way you want to do it and it’s being successful, what would you care about it?” said an NHL scout who follows the Avs.
“I don’t think I would say he completely disagrees or doesn’t like it but he obviously doesn’t have as much emphasis on it that other teams or coaches do.”
Landeskog says the Avs are focused more on overall personnel and talent than systems. Young forward Nathan MacKinnon – the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 NHL Draft – has bounced back nicely from a down season as a sophomore. He has 43 points in 55 games after notching just 38 points in 64 the prior year.
Matt Duchene has 24 goals, and is on pace for a career-high and veteran defenseman Francois Beauchemin – a free agent signing last summer – has provided steady leadership from the blueline with 25 points in 55 games while averaging 25:11 per-game.
Also, the team’s power play has helped reduce the impact of their 5-on-5 problems. The Avalanche have connected at a 19.6 percent clip this year and drawn the third-most penalties in the NHL, limiting their 5-on-5 time.
“To be honest I feel like this is one of those things that everybody is really focused on with the advanced statistics and the analytics. I still think it’s a game where there’s 12 guys out there and a puck and two nets and I think that’s what it comes down to and winning hockey games,” Landeskog said.
“It really doesn’t matter how.”
It also helps when a team has goaltending capable making the group look better. Colorado ranks in the top half of the NHL with a 5-on-5 save percentage of .9312 according to Hockey Analysis. Since he came to Colorado, Semyon Varlamov hasn’t had a full season with a save percentage below .921. This year he’s at .917, and had to miss several games due to a civil trial. Backup Reto Berra has a .922 save percentage and Calvin Pickard, another backup, has a .916 save percentage.
Roy’s first year in Denver, the team ranked fifth in the NHL in 5-on-5 save percentage. Last season they ranked 13th.
“When you do have a goalie who makes all the regular stops and some big saves on a regular basis that most goalies don’t, I think it does allow you to go out and play a certain way,” said the scout.
Last season, only two of 10 teams that finished in the top-10 in 5-on-5 CF% didn’t make the playoffs. In 2013-14 it was three and in 2012-13 it was two.
Even if Corsi isn’t referenced much in Colorado, the team understands that you need to hold onto the puck to score goals.
“Any team you ask, if you want to spend more time in the offensive zone or in the defensive zone, I think it’s a pretty easy answer,” Landeskog said. “I think when you start spending more time in the offensive zone it helps your defense.”
If Colorado overachieved in 2013-14 and underachieved last year, is this the real Avalanche under Roy? They've also made some personnel changes, losing center Paul Stastny to free agency two summers ago and trading center Ryan O'Reilly last summer.
Regardless, they're back in the playoff picture and that's what matters most.
"(Last) year they were a completely different team, and I think everyone including myself was like, ‘What happened? What’s wrong?’ ‘This is not the team everyone thought they would be,’” said the scout. “I just think it’s something maybe now where they’re finally all on the same page and everybody knows everyone’s tendencies.”
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Josh Cooper is an editor for Puck Daddy on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at puckdaddyblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @joshuacooper
