Are the Florida Panthers actually a playoff team? (Trending Topics)

A quick look at the standings in the Eastern Conference shows two things you probably wouldn't expect to see: The Bruins out of a playoff spot (still), and the Panthers rather close to one. 

They're running Nos. 8 and 9 in the East at this moment, and it's been a bit of a joke for a while now that they've been flip-flopping back and forth, more or less constantly flirting with a playoff spot and occasionally seizing it. Right now, the Bruins are one point back of Washington with an extra game played, and the Panthers are two out with two games in hand. This is, to Bruins fans, a sign of the apocalypse; “How could they possibly be as bad as the Panthers?”

And no, certainly Boston shouldn't be this bad, but the question is really whether the Panthers should be this good.

“Good,” here is obviously a relative term.

Florida has 38 points from 32 games — a pace for a little more than 97 points for a full 82 games — and that probably portends a playoff spot. But not, like, a solid playoff spot or anything like that. In last year's Eastern Conference, 97 points would have been enough to secure them the first wild card spot, but that's about it; a first-round matchup at the hands of the team leading a division (right now, Montreal and Pittsburgh, though you can probably bank on at least one of those changing before April). The Panthers, however good they or trending-in-the-right-direction they may be, will almost certainly lose a seven-game series against any of the top teams in the East.

But this is a rebuilding team, and all the signs are there that they're really getting to a point where they're going to be able to keep winning rather sustainably for the rest of the season and probably beyond. First, obviously, is the team's score-adjusted fenwick rating of 52.1. That's a very robust number for a team that most people considered an afterthought, and that finished last season 29th in the league. It's currently 11th in the NHL, ahead of usual possession monsters like the Sharks, Bruins, and Rangers. It's also right in line with Los Angeles and St. Louis. These are all among the best teams in their conferences over the last few years, so for Florida, with its roster, to be anywhere close is kind of astonishing.

And it's not as though this is a team that's doing something like Calgary or Nashville and getting some fortunate bounces and/or Vezina-quality goaltending. Despite his bizarre and unwarranted reputation, Roberto Luongo was always going to make this team a lot better simply by showing up. He has a .924 save percentage in 26 games this season, which is great, and Al Montoya has been a more than capable backup as well (.915 in nine appearances). Their combined .929 even-strength save percentage, though, is just eighth in the league, so it's not like they're stopping everything they see like, say, Pekka Rinne is. Instead, they're just very good, and very good for this tandem also seems very reasonable to expect going forward.

If we're talking about luck, in fact, you might say that the Panthers have had it a little tough in some ways. This isn't exactly a high-talent roster, at least, not throughout the lineup. Which is why their leading scorers — 22-year-old Nick Bjugstad and 18-year-old defenseman Aaron Ekblad — are tied with 19 points in 32 games. That's why their power play is only operating at 13 percent (the league average is more than 18.5 percent). That's why they only have eight guys who are in the double digits in points despite some pretty good healthy overall. That's why Bjugstad is the only one with more than nine goals.

Hell, their team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 is just 6.6 percent. That's ahead of only Carolina, Columbus, and Arizona.

And it tells you everything you need to know about the job Gerard Gallant is doing with this club. It is incredibly difficult to make young players play defense effectively at the NHL level — ask Edmonton — and obviously having one of the best goaltenders of his generation at the back to clean up any messes helps a lot. But the thing that people don't think about with the Panthers is that they are, in fact, not all that young at all. They're actually the eighth-oldest team in the league, but six of their top 10 scorers are 25 or younger. Which is to say that the core is quite young, but the complementary players are all veterans of varying levels of quality.

Ekblad is someone who's going to grab a lot of headlines because 18-year-old defensemen don't come into the league as soon as they're drafted and play as well as he has; certainly, they don't co-lead a borderline playoff team in scoring. And the Panthers have been very wise in deploying him, because he's been used almost exclusively with Brian Campbell, perhaps the least-considered excellent defenseman in this league. In much the same way that playing with Campbell got Tom Gilbert paid by Montreal this summer (and Gilbert has been pretty awful without him in Montreal), playing with Campbell has shepherded this No. 1 overall pick into the league very effectively. The WOWYs tell the story: Campbell alone is 54.4 percent, and with Ekblad he's 56.3 percent. Without? Just 40.9 percent. Willie Mitchell's addition has likewise allowed Campbell a lot more freedom to take on easier situations, because Mitchell is an out-and-out defensive defenseman, and being used like one.

As for the forwards, it's starting to look like Aleksander Barkov could be the player everyone hoped, even if he's been mega-unlucky in scoring. He has just four points at 5-on-5 this year because the team has shot 3.5 percent when he's on the ice. Last year it was 8.4 percent. But what's more important, and more indicative of his ability to play the game at a high level, is that his possession numbers are improved, despite the fact that he's starting a lot more shifts in his own zone. If Barkov in particular starts getting the bounces, this team could go on a very serious run.

Another thing Gallant has done well, by the way, is make sure to distribute the minutes pretty evenly. His top three centers in terms of TOI are separated only by 1:07 per night from Nos. 1 to 3, and that allows for a lot of flexibility and makes sure everyone's getting a crack at playing.

All these numbers kind of serve as a counterpoint to when you watch the Panthers play: They never score (68 goals in 32 games!!!), and thus never really seem like they're really standing on anyone's throat even if they're choking the life out of the game, which they tend to be able to do.

And they're only getting better, too. In December alone their score-adjusted fenwick has improved to a fourth-in-the-league 54.5 percent. They're still barely outscoring opponents at even strength (21-20, somehow). They're also going to overtime and even the shootout a lot; six times in 11 games. But they're winning those games for the most part (6-3-2), and on paper they deserve to do so.

But the Panthers of a few years ago learned that playing for overtime and the shootout may get you a lot of points but it doesn't guarantee you're actually good at hockey. And so far this year 14 of their 32 games have required at least the overtime period to decide. I'm pretty convinced that this is a team with good enough underlying data to get them comfortably into the playoffs, but if they can't get the bounces in the attacking end it's not going to matter much. A goals-per-game number in the low 2-point-somethings isn't going to get you anywhere, and everyone knows that. But given how bright this team's future probably is with all these high draft picks, I'm willing to bet that comes along naturally.

Given where everyone thought this team could finish, whatever happens for them this year, in terms of success, has to be considered a bonus. At least they're finally moving in the right direction.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.