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    Shutdown Corner

    As usual, scouts are all over the place on this year’s draft class

    These six men are watching the same player ... and seeing him very differently. (AP)

    There's one way in which the art of projecting draft prospects is very much like witnessing a car accident (well, two ways if you're watching Vontaze Burfict's combine performance): Everyone will come away from the event seeing different things. Scouts, coaches and personnel execs each have their own preferences and biases to the process, and as a result, you're going to hear some very different evaluations when you're talking to the right people about the same players.

    During the 2012 scouting combine, Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel talked to the right people about this year's prospects -- five NFL scouts, to be exact. It's a fascinating piece that provides invaluable analysis on a host of players who will hear their names called in late April.

    [Michael Silver: Make the NFL scouting combine more accessible]

    We don't want to take too much of the juice from McGinn's piece -- you really need to head over and read the whole thing -- but here are just a few examples of just how two scouts can be completely opposed when looking at the same player -- even the players who are currently expected to go with the first three picks of this draft.

    Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III:

    "He's phenomenal," one scout said. "He's going to need technique work and fundamentals. I have no problem about that. But you cannot lose the fact that he's got feet, touch downfield with accuracy, a strong arm. He's charismatic and smart as [expletive]."

    "He cannot play quarterback," another scout said. "He's just running around winging it. He has no idea how to play quarterback. He's got no vision. He's got no accuracy. No touch. Anything you look for in an NFL quarterback, he doesn't have it. You want him to run around and throw the ball and just keep running, he can do that. He's [Michael] Vick, but not as good a thrower."

    I'd compare the second scout to one of the doofuses sitting around the table at the start of "Moneyball," but that would be an insult to doofuses everywhere. Griffin is a rapidly developing pocket passer who completed 72 percent of his passes in 2011, and led the nation in yards per attempt. Aren't scouts supposed to watch [expletive] tape?

    At this point, even the "sure things" aren't safe from differing opinions. (AP)

    Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck:

    "He's the best I've [scouted]," said one scout with almost two decades of experience in personnel. "He's got it all and can do it all. He has no flaws. Smart. Winner. Productive. Decisions. Runs the offense. Got nobody playing with him. The receivers were 5-9 and run 4.8. The defense has no athletes on it. He carried that team."

    "He is a Matt Ryan-type player," another scout said. "He can't carry the team on his shoulders, but he's a really good manager. His arm isn't even close to Aaron Rodgers' and he doesn't have Aaron's feet. He's smart, competitive, tough. His teammates love him. The media has put so much pressure on this kid. It's unbelievable. They've basically anointed him Jesus Christ."

    I think that as the process goes along this year, you might hear more people espouse the notion that Luck is an "in-the-box" player, to his own detriment. It's part of the game to devalue the top guys along the way, but just because Luck is NFL-ready doesn't mean that he doesn't still have room (and the potential) to grow.

    USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil:

    "He could be the second or third pick in the draft," one scout said. "He is very technically sound. Very athletic. He will need a little bit of strength in his lower body. He's an effortless pass blocker. He's not going to blow you away with power, but he's so good at just gaining position with quickness and just sustaining."

    "I think he's overrated," another scout said. "I felt the same way about Sam Baker when he came out of there, too. He's like (Bryan) Bulaga but not as good. Bulaga is tough and strong and all that. This guy is not even strong. I don't know what the deal is with all these people saying how great he is."

    It's understandable that Kalil would get the same core strength concerns as Joe Thomas did coming out of Wisconsin. But in Kalil's case, just as it was (and is) with Thomas, a good look at the technique he plays with might give an indicator that a good set in position and turn around the edge can make up for many strength issues. And going from a college weight room to the NFL version should make a real difference.

    One thing that's easy to take away from McGinn's article: There may have been an intractable language of "scout-speak" in baseball before Moneyball took over (though that's probably an oversimplification), but in football, people are all over the place in their views -- even on the most valued and "sure-thing" prospects every year.

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    60 comments

    • elephant  •  2 months ago
      I'll bet a lot of these same guys would have picked Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning, and had Jamarcus Russell as their top pick too.
    • EJ  •  Phoenix, Arizona  •  2 months ago
      I like the one that said that Luck had no one around him. Doesn't he have 2 linemen going in the first round? Didn't Chris Owusu (at 5'11) run a 4.36 40? Didn't Stefan Taylor run for over 1300 yards last year? I think Luck is great, but he wasn't a one man team either
      • Bleh 2 months ago
        He had great protection. When they said he had nobody around him, they were referring to receivers...
      • everything4lessstore.com 2 months ago
        How about TE Fleener making circus catches bailing him out.
      • Eric Ho 2 months ago
        Yes Fleener is definitely a top 2 TE coming out of college, and Owusu was decent too. I think because most of Stanford's players are white they get unfairly tagged as an overachieving unathletic team, when in fact they had several good athletes on their team on both sides of the ball.
    • everything4lessstore.com  •  2 months ago
      So what did all the scouts think about Tom Brady? Drafted in the 6th round.
      • D-Mills 2 months ago
        Guys with average height, average arm strength, mediocre athleticism and mediocre college production aren't considered good prospects.
      • Talledega 2 months ago
        Tom Brady is 6'4". What does average height have to do with it?
      • T 2 months ago
        Sounds like a taller joe Montana. But less scrambling ability.
    • KaranR  •  Fairmont, Nebraska  •  2 months ago
      I feel like a lot of this is gamesmanship.. often scouts will purposely give false reports to reporters to lower the stock of guys they really want. Seriously. Especially if you let them be quoted anonymously? Gosh I'd be bashing every single prospect I wanted in the hopes that they would fall to my team.
    • jeff s  •  Corpus Christi, Texas  •  2 months ago
      scouts can watch a guy workout all they want at the combines and on tape, but NOBODY knows how a player will do at the NFL level. It all depends on how hard a players works and how much time he puts into film and playbooks. Look at the college game, how many 5 star recruits become bust and then you'll see guys like Sam Bradford or Justin Blackmon who were only 3 star recruits out of high school. Look at Dominic Whaley last year at OU who nobody hardly recruited and until his injury he was playing as good as any RB in the nation. I know the college game is not near the tier of the NFL, but its still the same concept as far as players coming in and working hard. A scout can not evaluate a kid on how much time he's going to put in to become a better player.
    • Boston Patriot  •  2 months ago
      When did Phil Donahue become an NFL scout?
    • L-Train  •  2 months ago
      I love how the scout compares Luck's arm to Rodgers arm. When Rodgers came out nobody knew he was gonna be anything special, and now they compare everyone to him like they knew all along.
      • D-Mills 2 months ago
        Well Rodgers was considered by many to be the best QB in the draft. He did fall on draft day, but nobody in the world was expecting that to happen.
      • FP 2 months ago
        There was one team that needed a QB. That was SF. After that, none needed it until GB. That is why Rodgers went down. He also said that he would make all the teams that passed him pay. And he did.
      • Milk man 2 months ago
        Dude was still drafted in the first round; you dont throw a first round pick away on someone you dont expect to be special.
    • Private Private  •  Surfside, California  •  2 months ago
      ... he completed 72% of his passes in 2011... in college. Hey dufus (spelled dufus), the NFL is not college. I present to you: Tim Couch.
    • Shortstmp  •  San Francisco, California  •  2 months ago
      Scouts were right about Tebow. Lowest. Completion percentage in the NFL. Luck is a winner.
    • paterno  •  2 months ago
      Scouts are retards. Go back and look at all the top three picks in the NFL history.

      If scouts were investment bankers, they would be out of a job the first few days.
    • Alex Karras  •  2 months ago
      A lot of these scouts couldn't find their backside with either hand. These are the guys that had Richard Dent as a seventh round pick, Tom Brady as a 6th rounder, Joe Montana as a 3rd rounder, Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, the list goes on and on. The most overrated people in all of sports are NFL scouts, who, if they were baseball players would be hitting about .125.
    • Mike  •  Jackson, Mississippi  •  2 months ago
      Thats like someone from the Cleveland Browns, in the back sleeping on the job.
    • socal  •  San Marino, California  •  2 months ago
      As usual, all the assistant pencil pushers are sitting in their little cubicles and telling us how stupid everybody else is.
    • Greg R  •  Cloverdale, Indiana  •  2 months ago
      LOL at this morons swipe at the scout who wasn`t high on Robert Griffin III. How many times do you have to see these running quarterbacks come into the league before you catch on, that, that`s all they really do. Sure, they can throw the ball and come up with completions occasionally, but a running QB is just that, always has been just that, and always will, just that.

      This "writer" needs to learn to write a leave opinions out of the piece.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  Stillwater, Oklahoma  •  2 months ago
      Matt Kalil = Tony Mandarich.
    • WishIUnderstood  •  Las Vegas, Nevada  •  2 months ago
      You say tomahto, i say tomayto. One has to wonder how much of the hype and the bad-mouthing is a ploy to encourage or discourage other teams into moving players up or down on their lists. In American business, it's wise to assume that almost everything you see or hear is misinformation or disinformation with a purpose.
    • apocalypse FU  •  2 months ago
      What they fail to mention is that scouts also love to make stuff up so that another team might "pass" on a player that stinks and has no brains or whatever. It's all smoke screen from here on out until the draft.
    • John  •  2 months ago
      A lot of blowhards under one roof, very surprised there wasn't a tornado.
    • Shark  •  2 months ago
      One scout said RG3 was Japanese the other said he was white. They can't both be right, but they can both be wrong.
    • Go Cleveland Cavaliers  •  Cleveland, Ohio  •  2 months ago
      Why don't they mention the scouts by name? Kinda like the news saying we have unnamed sources. Does not sound very creditable.

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