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    Dr. Saturday

    The New York Giants can teach college football a lot about how not to conduct a playoff

    buffett.jpgOne of my favorite moments in sports is, against all odds, the "deuce" in tennis. Not for the physical act of hitting a fluorescent ball over a net, which I find about as exciting as a city zoning meeting, but for the competitive purity of the concept. You can't win the game until you've won it decisively, by two points — no flukes, no games determined by a bad call or a single sketchy bounce. A one-point difference may be a lucky coincidence. A two-point difference leaves no doubt.

    Not only is that kind of certainty practically impossible in almost any other sport; in practice, it's often directly contradicted, sometimes in the most fundamental, big-picture ways. Which is how, as an unabashed playoff advocate in a sport that is finally on the verge of making a playoff a reality, I find myself once again grappling with the problem of the thoroughly mediocre New York Giants in the Super Bowl.

    Yes, I do mean problem, from the perspective of ever getting a functional playoff up and running on the college level. The BCS and its apologists have trotted out a chorus line of excuses over the years for keeping an FBS playoff at bay — it makes the season too long, it interferes with finals, it requires too much travel, etc. — all of them easily refuted by the ongoing success of playoffs in literally every other team sport on every level of American athletics, including college football on the FCS, Division II and Division III levels. Only one defense has managed to stick: The notion that, when there is no playoff after the regular season, the regular season itself is a playoff. At this point, the BCS' existence — or at least its ability to justify its existence — is so dependent on this idea that it's adopted the cliché "Every Game Counts" as a kind of unofficial creed.

    It's a patently ridiculous creed, as proven (again) by the mulligan Alabama was just granted after losing its winner-take-all showdown against LSU last November. (To be clear, it would have been equally ridiculous if the mulligan had been granted to Oklahoma State after its loss at Iowa State, the point being that a mulligan for anyone obviously refutes the claim that "every game counts.") But for the second time in five years, the New York Giants' presence in the Super Bowl is an anti-playoff argument incarnate: Here is a 9-7 mediocrity that spent the entire regular season barely treading water, was outscored over the course of the season and finished behind 28 percent of the league in terms of final record.  And this is your potential champion?

    Even if New York knocks off New England, it will finish the season with a lower winning percentage (.650) than six other teams — New England, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, Baltimore and Pittsburgh — that happened to suffer one of their rare losses at the wrong point on the calendar. In the context of a 16-game schedule, the gap between New York at 9-7 and the top three teams in the NFC (all of which beat New York head-to-head in the regular season, en route to finishing 13-3 or better) was enormous.

    But of course, thanks to the inviolable sanctity of the playoffs, the only streak that matters in the end is the Giants' three-game run in January. So here they are, and almost no one blinks. What a story!

    Perhaps the "problem" here is not so obvious — after all, I'm for playoffs, right? So shouldn't I just shut up, admit that wow, yeah, the Giants are a pretty great story and take solace in the fact that the system worked? I mean, the system always works, doesn't it? Isn't the point to settle it on the field? Well, it's settled.

    And I admit, conveniently rhetorical voice in my head, compared to the alternatives, you have a point. It's just that I can't help thinking that it had already been settled on the field over the previous four months. And the Giants came up short.

    buffett.jpgIn fact, they're the fourth Super Bowl team in the last five years that got there by "getting hot" on the heels of a meh regular season, following the '07 Giants, '08 Cardinals and '10 Packers — all of which made it to the championship round after finishing 10-6 or worse, and two of which wound up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. It's not an anomaly. It happens all the time. And every time, the regular season means a little bit less.

    So when playoff opponents in college football chant "Every Game Counts," this is what they mean: The 9-7 New York Giants (or their campus equivalent, in the event of an FBS playoff) have not advanced a legitimate claim on a championship, did not deserve the opportunity they have now taken advantage of and threaten to cheapen the concept of a championship season. To which I have to say, as an advocate of level playing fields and the virtues of competition: They're right. It's thoroughly frustrating to glorify teams for "getting hot" at the expense of superior outfits that have consistently outperformed them on the whole, effectively overturning three or four months of results in three or four weeks.

    In the NFL, that may be inevitable. In college football, it is not. And I also have to say, as a playoff advocate in the college game: It can't happen here. At least, it can't if we don't let it.

    In the first place, it would be impossible for the college football equivalent of a 9-7 NFL team to make the cut in any logistically feasible bracket, even one as large as 16 teams. Compare to the NFL, where more than a third of the league qualifies for the playoffs every year (a much lower number than in the NBA and NHL, which admit a majority), an eight-team playoff in college football would only include 6.5 percent of current FBS programs (8 of 123), the cream of the crop by any standard; a 12-team playoff would include 9.8 percent, still restricting the field to the elite. My pet plan favors a 10-team setup, but the specific number is frankly semantic: A field that included the college football equivalent of a 9-7 NFL team would have to consist of at least 46 teams, a logistical impossibility. And because it would be exceedingly difficult for any college team to make an 8, 10, 12 or 16-team field with more than two losses — or even with only two losses, in an 8 or 10-team field — the gap between the top of the bracket and the bottom would be a) Negligible, and b) Easily closed if the team on the bottom actually won the tournament.

    In other words, the format should be (and would be) structured so that there is no doubt that the winner of the playoff is the most accomplished team as a result of winning the playoff. That means (as opposed to the BCS) setting the bar low enough to allow every deserving candidate a legitimate opportunity, but also (as opposed to the NFL, or the NCAA basketball tournament) setting it high enough that only the deserving candidates can clear it. It means being inclusive to generate a legitimate, competitive field, and exclusive enough to avoid diminishing returns. As championship credentials go, a 9-7 team that was outscored in the regular season is about as diminished as they come.

    Just something to keep in mind as the BCS begins its evolution into a bona fide playoff (or "Plus One," whatever the favored term) over the next few years, when the answers to big questions — What do we want from a playoff? What do we expect from a champion? — will have a real impact on the shape of the system going forward. Something else to remember: No matter how large it gets or how diminished the participants, a bona fide playoff is always preferable to awarding championships by opinion poll.

    - - -
    Matt Hinton is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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    28 comments

    • charles  •  Sioux Falls, South Dakota  •  3 months ago
      this is one of the most moronic yahoo sports blogs i have read...and that is saying something...get a life...
    • JustinA  •  Harrisburg, North Carolina  •  3 months ago
      Every game counts, including the playoff games that the Giants won. Get the NFL a BCS formula and watch how little people will suddenly care about the NFL.
    • JustinA  •  Harrisburg, North Carolina  •  3 months ago
      So if you want a definitive winner, just have a best-of-3 series. The CFL did it way back in the day. Save the BCS nonsense for a sport no one actually cares about, like horseback riding.
    • Ronnie  •  New York, New York  •  3 months ago
      The teams that win their playoff games get to the Super Bowl. What's so hard to understand about that? Having a great record during the the regular season means nothing. The playoffs are a clean slate.
      • Julian 3 months ago
        It is understood. College football fans just don't want any part of the NFL reality where, in your words, "having a great record during the the regular season means nothing."
    • Glendon  •  3 months ago
      The Giants had the toughest schedule in the NFL, particularly the second half. Their record was 9-7 due to losses to Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco and Philadelphia in consecutive weeks ... and during that time, there were 5 defensive starters on the sidelines with injury. Once those players returned to the lineup, they "got hot" and defeated Green Bay and San Francisco in the playoffs. Calling the Giants mediocre just proves you haven't paid much attention to what's going on in the NFL. Any team that can go ON THE ROAD and beat the Jets, Cowboys, Falcons (home), Packers and 49ers in consecutive weeks.....hardly a mediocre football team.
    • Gregory  •  New York, New York  •  3 months ago
      Dear hack author, how is a team who led the NFL in sacks and plays over 20 yards mediocre?Giants spent 3/4 of the season without a healthy Tuck or Osi. Nicks and Cruz are going to clown the lame NE DB's. Enjoy watching the G-Men light up Brady and the score board. Loser.
      • Ryan 3 months ago
        I think he made it clear. The Giants were 9-7 and got outscored in the regular season. You think the Giants looked like a dominant team in the regular season?
      • familiar2 3 months ago
        I'm pretty sure the Giants were tied for 3rd in sacks and that makes you bad with facts. Giants fans like you give the rest of us bad names.
      • Paul E C 3 months ago
        There were several 9-7 teams that didnt make the playoffs and if the Cowboys were 9-7 the Giants probably wouldnt have made the playoffs. I know what you mean by injuries, but you have to admit 9-7 teams are usually labeled mediocre.
    • ★☆Kimbrktty☆★  •  New York, New York  •  3 months ago
      Ohhhhh this dude covers college football... Thats why he's all backwards on the ways of fairness and common sense. Makes sense now. If the way college footballs championship was decideed were applied tot he NFL, yould have a league wide player Mutiny LMAO
    • Chas  •  Seoul, South Korea  •  3 months ago
      Hey fool, their regular season record is irreverent. They won their division. Go back to Saturday and get the hell out of our Sundays.
    • Nathan  •  Dallas, Texas  •  3 months ago
      Wow, im kind of blown away as to how stupid this is. The regular season does mean something, just not everything. If you do well in the regular season, you get playoff games at home, which last time I checked, is an advantage. Remember when the 8th seed Golden State Warriors beat the 1 seed Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs a few years ago? Was that a poor way to conduct a playoff? No, the Mavericks just blew it and should have beaten a lesser opponent. Normally I enjoy your stuff Matt, but this is a big reach. There is a reason more people watch NFL playoff games than they do the college national championship.
    • Scott V  •  Plymouth, New York  •  3 months ago
      I'd call this blog and writer I stumbled upon: DOUCHEY
    • JOHN L  •  Reno, Nevada  •  3 months ago
      Totally absurd, this kind of story is what makes sports great, a team rallying at the most critical time, winning must win games for 5 weeks to get to the Superbowl, they make movies about this stuff, it's awesome, get a clue...lol
    • Wade  •  3 months ago
      It says your a doctor? Doctors are smart people. No no your no doctor more like a douche bag who used Websters to come up with a few big words to make your argument sound compelling. The Giants beat the team with the best offense and best defense in respective weeks to get to the championship. They had to deal with a ton of injuries throughout the season. Make no doubt about the Giants are very deep and very talented. That is why they are going back to the Super Bowl.
    • Thanatos  •  3 months ago
      Why think about the Giants? You need to answer this question:

      Last year, did VCU deserve to be in the Final Four?

      The answer: Of course they did. They won a game to even get into the tournament. They won 4 in a row against some of the other best teams in the country. They were no fluke. They earned it.

      Similarly, the Giants earned their way to the Super Bowl. They had no first round bye ("mulligan") that top seeds got. They beat the other best teams in their league. There's nothing mediocre about them.
    • Brian F  •  Fall River, Massachusetts  •  3 months ago
      Stick with what you know, which apparently is not professional football. Although, having read the rest of your recent blog entries, I don't think it's college football, either. Perhaps you ought to go watch tennis.
    • from south dakota  •  3 months ago
      Exactly. Even a 16-team playoff would contains teams that were no worse than 9-3 most years. It's less than 20% of all eligible teams making a playoff, as opposed to more than one-third in the case of the NFL.
    • ZacharyD  •  Ashburn, Virginia  •  3 months ago
      The "problem" that the Giants making the Super Bowl illustrates is only a problem for apologists for the major conferences. The NFL gives every team a chance to make the Super Bowl and win the championship by allowing every division champ regardless of perceived weakness or strength of the division. The NFC East was perceived as a weak division this year - perhaps the equivilent of the ACC or Big East. The Giants should be seen as a reminder on why a playoff needs to give every team a chance to compete on the field and that perceptions of conference strength are just perceptions.

      If college football is going to have a playoff system and it is going to be a real playoff and not just an excuse to shovel more money into the hands of the haves like the BcS is - the playoff will have to invite every conference champion because that is the only way to assure that the regular season really matters. The NFL does that and only a fool would pretend that if the Giants win the Super Bowl they aren't the legitimate champions - they would have won 4 consecutive games including the top NFC and AFC team, the second best NFC team, and the 5th best NFC team.
    • Dave R  •  3 months ago
      What is it you want to prove; which team was better over the course of a season, or who used the practice games most effectively to become prepared for the tournament. Answers are easy after we've come to an agreement.
    • ★☆Kimbrktty☆★  •  New York, New York  •  3 months ago
      The problem with this dudes argument is, unlike the NCAA, what you do on the field in the end matters. Who cares if you won 12 games in the beginning of the year... if you were worth your salt, you dont lose to an inferior team. Thats Bulls*it idea that because you come from an "elite" conference, it instantly entitles you to something over a school that has won as many games as you, simply because they come from a nothing conference.. I mean, if you go by this idiots logic.. If you start the season 13-0 and finish 13-3, having lost 3 straight games, You are entitled to win the Championship.. that is the most ludicrous thing ive ever heard.. its not how you start, its how you finish.
      • Scott V 3 months ago
        good stuff, cat woman!
    • Brandon Dean  •  Charlotte, North Carolina  •  3 months ago
      0% of the Packers players would complain about the Giants being there. 0% of 49ers players would complain of the Giants being there. You sound like a Occupy Wall Street Whiner.
    • Phil  •  Columbus, Ohio  •  3 months ago
      Bitter Aints fan, party of one