There's a new picks sheriff in town. Because the old one wasn't doing too well.
Drastic action was necessary in these here parts after Graham Watson's disastrous week in week 6. At the risk of alienation, I must reveal that she went 2-8 last week to fall to 31-29-1. Though if you followed her advice to fade, you did very nicely last week.
Should you fade these picks? It's your choice. Let's do this.
Temple (+21) at Cincinnati, 8:30 p.m. ET (FRIDAY): Cincinnati is coming off of a six point loss to South Florida, a team that lost by 32 points to McNeese State in the first week of the season. Temple is 0-5, but it lost by Louisville by 23 and Notre Dame by 22, both on the road. And this Cincinnati team played Miami, Ohio to a 0-0 stalemate before scoring two late touchdowns.
Pittsburgh (+8.5) at Virginia Tech, 12 p.m. ET: Do you trust Virginia Tech? It has not been incredibly convincing in its victories this year. Outside of Western Carolina, an FCS team, the Hokies biggest margin of victory has been 10. That was at home last week against North Carolina. Pitt's a better team than the Tar Heels are. Don't take the Panthers outright, but they'll keep it within a possession.
Iowa State at Texas Tech (-14), 12 p.m. ET: Last week, Texas Tech was favored by 17 at Kansas. Factoring in five or so points for homefield in Lubbock, is Iowa State that much better than the Jayhawks are? They probably are, but the line is only two scores because the last time ISU was at Tech, they drubbed the Red Raiders 41-7. Kliff Kingsbury is no Tommy Tuberville. Tech covers easily.
Northwestern (+10) at Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m. ET: This is perhaps a bigger test of Northwestern's standing in the Big 10 than the game against Ohio State at home last week was. The Wildcats' advantage at quarterback with Trevor Siemian and Kain Coulter keeps this one close.
Florida at LSU (-7), 3:30 p.m. ET: Does this line seem too close to anyone else? That probably means you should go against me then. LSU's defense is the best one that Florida QB Tyler Murphy has faced so far and it's not even close. Florida's defense is the reason that this game is so close, but Zach Mettenberger versus the Gators' D is more than a possession advantage over Murphy versus the Tiger defense. BONUS PICK: Under 48.5.
Baylor (-17.5) at Kansas State, 3:30 p.m. ET: We detailed Baylor's torture of sports books on Wednesday, and how books are having to add 10 points to every Baylor game because of the Bears' incredible offense. But I'm going with them anyway. Baylor will run the fewest plays it has all year because of the Wizard Bill Snyder on the other sidelines, but this is a Kansas State team that is nowhere near as good as it was last year. Right, North Dakota State?
Oregon at Washington (+14), 4 p.m. ET: Oregon's in the same boat as Baylor, though Washington is a substantially better team than Kansas State is. Plus it's coming off a three point road loss to Stanford, a team who is Oregon's equal. There's a letdown effect built in here on this spread, and Oregon still wins the game. But this isn't a romp, especially with De'Anthony Thomas a question mark.
Michigan at Penn State UNDER 50.5, 5 p.m. ET: After Penn State's loss at Indiana and Michigan's scattered impotence, stay away from the point spread on this game, which is Michigan favored by 2.5. Instead, stay conservative and go with the under on two mediocre Big 10 football teams who could easily play to a 17-14 game and no one would be surprised.
Boise State (-7) at Utah State, 8 p.m. ET: With Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton healthy, this game is almost a tossup. Instead, this should be an easy Bronco win. Yes, this isn't the Boise of yore after losses to Washington and Fresno State, but Utah State without Keeton is flat out ordinary.
Texas A&M at Mississippi UNDER 76, 8:30 p.m. ET: With the line -6, the game's set at 41-35 in favor of the Aggies, who have scored more than that against Alabama and Arkansas. Even if you expect A&M to keep that up, Ole Miss may not be able to keep up its end of the bargain after two ugly showings against Alabama and Auburn. The game ends up right around the spread, but more like 38-32 or 35-28.
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