We didn't hit what we promised last week. But we came close.
After shooting for 7-3 we ended up at 6-4. We'll blame Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Stanford and Arizona for that nonsense. Overall, we're 10 games over .500 at 65-55-2 through 12 weeks. Here's to making it at least 14 games over after this week.
Duke (-6) at Wake Forest, Noon ET: This is banking on a letdown for the Dukies who travel to a team that is coming off of a bye week after being shellacked by 56 against Florida State. This is the exact type of game a team can't lose if it wants to go to a conference championship game and we're on the Duke bandwagon. Duke's heading to play FSU in Charlotte, and beats Wake Forest by 10.
Oklahoma (+4.5) at Kansas State, Noon ET: Oklahoma is missing three offensive starters, including Blake Bell, who is recovering from a concussion. That means Trevor Knight starts against a Wildcat team that lazily beat TCU on a late field goal at home last week. If this game is a pick'em, Kansas State is the choice. But Oklahoma is (barely) the better team and they're getting more than a field goal.
Mississippi State (-1.5) at Arkansas, 12:21 ET: This is closer to a touchdown on a neutral field, but with the early kick and the apathy in Arkansas, is this much of a homefield advantage for the Hogs? MSU is playing for a bowl game. A win Saturday and a win against Ole Miss at home on Thanksgiving gets the Bulldogs bowl eligible. An Egg Bowl with stakes on both sides would be even more fun.
Hawaii at Wyoming (-6), 2 p.m. ET: Speaking of teams playing for something, Wyoming is in the same situation as Mississippi State. Hawaii is winless. The Cowboys have had a tumultuous season and coach Dave Christensen may not make it to next season, but 6-6 could help save his job.
Wisconsin at Minnesota (+16.5), 3:30 p.m. ET: This line seems way too big. Yes, we wrote about the great Wisconsin rushing offense last week, but Minnesota isn't a slouch. Yes, the Minnesota rush defense isn't incredibly stout -- they're better against the pass -- but more than two scores is too much to give up to a team with two losses at home, don't you think?
Utah at Washington State (-1), 3:30 p.m. ET: A few weeks ago, it'd be hard to fathom two things. First, that Washington State could be over .500 at the end of the season and second, that they would have more than a slim chance of beating Washington. With Travis Wilson out for the season, Mike Leach's Cougs become bowl eligible with a win on senior day Saturday.
Idaho at Florida State (OVER 68.5), 3;30 p.m. ET: Do you want to take Florida State giving 57 points? We never advise you to take that big of a favorite, but with the way that the Seminoles have been destroying its opponents, it's impossible to make a case for Idaho. Instead, we'll say this game hits the over, as Florida State lets off the gas pedal in the second half and lets Idaho score enough to make it happen.
Arizona State at UCLA (+2.5), 7 p.m. ET: We're staying with the UCLA train for the third week in a row. Myles Jack is just that convincing. Outside of a blowout win at Washington State, when Arizona State has left its home state it's lost to Stanford and Notre Dame and beaten Utah by one. This one's close, and UCLA wins in a squeaker.
Kansas at Iowa State (OVER 45.5), 7 p.m. ET: Brutal, we know. This will be in the cold night at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, as the Cyclones try to relegate the Jayhawks to the cellar in the Big 12 once again. Kansas won't put the ball in the air much with Montrell Cozart at quarterback, but we've got a suspicion there could be a defensive or special teams touchdown or two.
Boise State (-5) at San Diego State, 10:30 p.m. ET: Given some of the losses we've seen by FBS opponents to FCS ones this season's, San Diego State's loss to Eastern Illinois make not make the top five in the "worst" category. However, it's still a little befuddling, as the Aztecs are 6-1 since starting 0-3. And that one loss was a seven-pointer to Fresno State. That said, we're going with Boise State. Call it a reverse writeup of sorts.
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